Cobra's Market View

$NYAD a tad weak

I've done a couple of scalps today with a small amount of success, but I see real strange stuff going on. Twice, I have seen the breadth and the VIX move in the same direction. That just isn't supposed to happen. Other things don't make sense also.

I am not going to commit to a position. I am only going to scalp until I see some conviction here.

Out of Bounds wrote:I've done a couple of scalps today with a small amount of success, but I see real strange stuff going on. Twice, I have seen the breadth and the VIX move in the same direction. That just isn't supposed to happen. Other things don't make sense also.

I am not going to commit to a position. I am only going to scalp until I see some conviction here.

And there it is like a flash.
Long SPY 206.68

Out of Bounds wrote:I've done a couple of scalps today with a small amount of success, but I see real strange stuff going on. Twice, I have seen the breadth and the VIX move in the same direction. That just isn't supposed to happen. Other things don't make sense also.

I am not going to commit to a position. I am only going to scalp until I see some conviction here.

$NYAD negative again, yesterday it turned positive by end of day now back in red again. Hmmm

The next sell wave I will have to test the water on the bear side.

BullBear52x wrote: $NYAD negative again, yesterday it turned positive by end of day now back in red again. Hmmm

I got a nice spike on all 4 breadths that I watch plus UVXY to a 1 minute dive. I like that picture.

INDEX days… GLD slips below 50d, UUP / COMPQ pressing recent highs..

Out of Bounds wrote:

BullBear52x wrote: $NYAD negative again, yesterday it turned positive by end of day now back in red again. Hmmm

I got a nice spike on all 4 breadths that I watch plus UVXY to a 1 minute dive. I like that picture.

I am selling here boss.

VIX pulled back sharply.. for a few minutes.. neckline needs a re-adjust …

SOLD SPY 206.92. I'm waiting. Strength did not develop like I thought it would

double bottom text book target. not sure.

SPX.. wedge retest.. VIX chop around till we hear anything from Europe

I really don't know WTF is going on..

Without giving person name, just mentioning here that wise man told me to sit on sideline for 6 months!

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/02/1 ... AF20150211

Shifting goal posts on employment may signal slower Fed rate hikes

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are debating a historic shift in one of its core economic gauges that could lead the central bank to move even slower than now thought once it lifts its rates from rock bottom levels.
According to interviews with half a dozen current and former Fed policymakers and staff, the concept that the economy can produce far lower levels of unemployment without stoking inflation is being built into Fed models and becoming increasingly entrenched in the central bank's views.
That shift may not delay the timing of the Fed's first rate increase, still expected in mid-year. But it does offer Chair Janet Yellen a good reason to move at a snail’s pace from then on to bring as many people as possible back to work and to push inflation back up to the Fed's 2-percent target.
Fed policymakers' December projections show most expect the Fed's benchmark rate to rise to 2.5 percent or above by the end of 2016 from the 0-0.25 percent range now.
On Monday, Fed governor Jerome Powell became the latest of policymakers to suggest the "natural" rate of unemployment, also referred to as a level of full employment, had fallen.
"Maybe the natural rate is lower...That it is five (percent) or even lower," Powell said. That would be significantly below current unemployment rate of 5.7 percent and the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent range Fed officials have recently estimated as the level of unemployment at which inflation is likely to increase.
LOWER DESTINATION
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the question of the true level of full employment will come into focus when the Fed will have to decide whether to allow unemployment to drift to unusually low levels to push inflation towards its target.
“I am quite open to the idea that the destination we are trying to get to is lower than we have cited in the past,” he said on Friday.
The chiefs of the Boston Fed and the Minneapolis Fed have also said they are considering lowering their estimates, as did several staff at other Fed branches who declined to be quoted, in line with the central bank's policy for briefing the media.
For months, Fed policymakers have been puzzling over how the accelerating economy kept adding jobs but failed to spur wage and price increases that would cement the recovery and allow them to wind-down crisis era policies.
Now, there is growing sense that the point where the job market tightens enough to start pushing up wages and prices may be further away than earlier thought.
The U.S. central bank has no official target for full employment - generally expressed as the unemployment rate that is consistent with stable prices. But accurately estimating it is critical for the Fed, given its mandate is to safeguard economic conditions that allow maximum employment consistent with stable prices that the bank defines as 2 percent inflation.
Since the 1960s estimates of that "natural rate of unemployment" have averaged 6.3 percent, according to data published quarterly as part of the Fed's main economic model.
Beginning in 2013, however, its staff has been marking that rate down, from 5.6 percent to 5 percent by late last year. That may lead regional Fed presidents and board members to cut their quarterly estimates due next month.
Research at several Fed banks, both published and unpublished, puts the estimate as low as 4.7 percent.

I'm sure we are waiting for the announcement at 2EST

brucekeller wrote:I'm sure we are waiting for the announcement at 2EST

What announcement?

BullBear52x wrote:

q2model wrote:

brucekeller wrote:I'm sure we are waiting for the announcement at 2EST

What announcement?

Thanks

q2model wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

q2model wrote:

brucekeller wrote:I'm sure we are waiting for the announcement at 2EST

What announcement?

Thanks

Also Europe/Greece

Trades with cats wrote:"Official" oil inventory at 10:30 Eastern. Expecting a build of 3.5 or so, about half of last weeks.
Big event, maybe, ifs the Euro presser at 19:00 GMT. That is 14:00 Eastern Standard. They know darn well if they say the wrong thing about a Greek deal they will tank the market.