01/15/2016 Live Update

[Unique]

ES: Bear below 1885, bull above 1885. Simple as that just like yesterday. KEY time here

[Eddie]

Bulls are trying hard to hang onto the trendline. Either way, I think SPX has a date with the Aug low around 1867. That should launch a massive rally. If not, the bear is in full force.

[Denali92]

Happens quite a bit - 5th time since last January. Jan, April and December 15 bottomed on the day. August was obviously the Monday after.... September was the start of a move lower.

-D

today is monthly OE，gap down so big，any previous OE day like this？


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[DellGriffith]

reposted from early this morning in last thread

In the 21st century, only THREE times has daily SPY been very oversold, then got buying pressure for one day, and then open with a full gap down (as we are likely to do this morning). This is very very rare. We never give back the entire white bar in deep oversold conditions but for 3 times this century.

The gap down days are highlighted:



The first two instances I am showing both gapped down hard but that was THE low for the correction and we wound up with another huge white bar and a massive multiweek rally broke out.

The third instance in the 21st century was 911...



As you can see, we got buying pressure and a big white candle on 9/10. Then markets were closed for a week. We reopened on 9/17 with a huge gap down. It turned out to also be a white candle but didn't come close to closing the gap.

Those are the three days that look like today.

[fehro]

SPX .. trying to hammer the hourly.. off gap support.. hmmm but that gap fill Aug lows.. looks too juicy not for a tag/undercut

[DellGriffith]

BTW. both bottoms also came on volume spikes. Today is shaping up to be another volume spike.

[Eddie]

SPX struggling at daily S1. Third time will prob be the charm.

[Unique]

Hourly Extreme Oversold Signal "A+ Tier" signal confirms WHEN over ES 1885. Invalidates under 1870. Targets 1885+40, 1885+50

I have to go in 30minutes so I might not be here to confirm it. This means that my plan is to short until 1885 gets retaken...long after 1885

[DellGriffith]

Common tradingview.com symbols:

SPY - self-explanatory but only autoupdates when market is open
SPX500 - futures market so it updates constnatly in the middle of the night.

WTI - oil chart but only when market is open
USOIL - futures market so it autoupdates constantly in the middle of the night.

[superxy]

BTW. both bottoms also came on volume spikes. Today is shaping up to be another volume spike.

bottom？



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[Al_Dente]

Note: SCO (2x short crude) is up 18 points this morning
DWTI (3x short crude) is up 44 points this morn

[uempel]

Mr. BachNut, I don't remember a single indicator of mine which gave a correct signal in 2011. I very much hope 2011 will never occur again

Mr. B here,

Since I found myself on the wrong side of the market last week, I have been largely on the sidelines.
To far gone for me to swing short and no signal to swing long.
I did dabble to catch a low Wednesday and yesterday. Hard to fight temptation...
A resistance level posted by Unique proved useful to me Wednesday night. Thank you.
I got some profit on a scale yesterday, but the balance was stopped out flat overnight.
Flat at the moment.

As of this morning, NYMO has reached the oversold zone.
So, there should be a bounce soon.
Unfortunately, when NYMO spends this much time down this low,
the forward outlook is to make further price lower lows (after a bounce or consolidation) in the days ahead with a positive NYMO divergence to make the ultimate bottom of the trend.
One historical exception to this was December 2011, which popped higher and stayed higher. As others have noted 2011 as an analog for this move, it is worth mentioning.

In any case, I am planning to be patient on a swing (maybe February will be time to be long) and take a day trade here and there while volatility is high.

NYMO 011516.jpg

[fehro]

Big spike VIX 30.95!!

[Unique]

Have a great weekend everyone!

Remember intraday bull above 1885, bear train as long as below 1885. GOOD LUCK!

[Out of Bounds]

Have a great weekend everyone!

Remember intraday bull above 1885, bear train as long as below 1885. GOOD LUCK!

Have a good one!

[DellGriffith]

BTW. both bottoms also came on volume spikes. Today is shaping up to be another volume spike.

bottom?

Dunno. But this two-day candle setup (under this oversold situation deep in a correction) has been a bottom the last two times it showed up (2008 & 2014). Was not a bottom on 911.

[Al_Dente]

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[Trades with cats]

So to use the four most expensive words on Wall Street "it's different this time". Bill Dudley, Chair of the New York Fed and 1/3 of Chair Yellen's inner circle has announced that they are ready to go to negative interest rate policy if the economy gets any worse.

I am guessing he did that today for a reason. Just not sure what it was. Next time he should just apologize for being clueless and stop interfering in the markets..

[Eddie]

As we move into yesterday's range near the lows, look for bag holders to put on some selling pressure to get out of their position with minimal damage before the weekend.

[josephli]

bull need to hold steady, no waterfall allowed. the is the only scenario aug low can be defended.