Cobra's Market View

uempel wrote:Most likely too early to short:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

can't agree more. would need more upside first.

would someone please post an intraday nymo?

USDJPY trying to hold. may morph into a triangle. currently bias still down.

Stun gun kind of day. Gap up, then flat. Taking a break ...

josephli wrote:

fehro wrote:SPX hourly.. inverted hammer.. /ES 60m better version add a little more to the short side cautiously

boss, when did you enter your last short?

1942 -ish - side note AAPL 0.10 from going red

so far USD strong, crude uber strong, TLT neutral, USDJPY up, internal OK. still bullish leaning.

josephli wrote:so far USD strong, crude uber strong, TLT neutral, USDJPY up, internal OK. still bullish leaning.

VIX slips new LOD.. nears possible support.. VIX new LOD, SPX no new HOD.. yet.

what do you think the OIL target for this run? thanks

AAPL still struggles.. slips red.. by a penny.. 20d 95.86

lilitulip wrote:what do you think the OIL target for this run? thanks

Dec mid lows 34.30 seems like a possible target..for a possible pause… getting a little stretched here.

Rule of thumb: Buy Low Sell High. and always sell 2x top.

BullBear52x wrote:Rule of thumb: Buy Low Sell High. and always sell 2x top.

i thought 2x top only has 40% winning rate per Cobra?

TLT down, USDJPY up, USD strong, crude uber strong. still bullish.

josephli wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Rule of thumb: Buy Low Sell High. and always sell 2x top.

i thought 2x top only has 40% winning rate per Cobra?

WIll see, someone have to buy or sell at some point, per stat, Sell Open range high is 23% success and buy Open rage low is said to be better 27% success, but most trader don''t short at range low unless it breakdown and they don't buy the top range unless it breakout to the upside either, so.....how's that translate to trading signals.

BullBear52x wrote:.. and always sell 2x top.

2nd top 5m? bull flag possible SPX .. VIX another LOD,.. another doji on the hourly.. it seems.. 5m to go..

lilitulip wrote:what do you think the OIL target for this run? thanks

speaking on 3-7 day swings
I would say today's high, 33.84, might be a roll-over
There is a high at 31.42 - but I don't know if will get there

Over all market short term is bullish depends on each individual time frame, for daily look at histogram is still pointing up on daily chart, the hollow red Heikin-Ashi signifies the top is near since trending is still down, for this time frame it sure nice to wait for red Heiki-Ashi and histogram to turn down, but that could easily missed 20-30 handles.

For long term view not a trading signal.

Unless it sells hard Cobra is going to get his fourth up day. But what are they going to use for a narrative tomorrow? Last week we had the classic OPEX week short squeeze, one of the bigger ones in a while that did even more damage to the hedge funds. Then we drift for two days until economic news time. Now we find that the Chinese banks have delivered an even larger dose of Morphine (or used the chest paddles whichever works for you) and it is clear that Super Mario will have to do something so off we go. What are they going to do to keep it up tomorrow?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnPlJxe ... Shirelles