Cobra's Market View

SPX will show new recent low IMO.

agnosia wrote:ouch. ITALY BREAKS: Entire FTSE MIB Is Now Suspended

our market is next ... not looking too healthy.

Hey Ben...
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/30y_04.html
New prescription?

Italy breaks... again. BUt this time it sound even more "curious".

Put the fork into the PIIGS.

quientuves wrote:Italy breaks... again. BUt this time it sound even more "curious".

I fear that the btfd cavalry is currently on the other side of this trade targeting some point below that I cannot figure out. Seems like every attempt to btfd gets gobbled up quickly (see 8am hourly candle on the ES). The brick walls that used to befuddle bears on any and every support line are now standing 100 ft tall in front of the bulls at any and every resistance line. Absent a big reversal today, a move like this after a hammer yesterday, makes me want to run for the hills. The news out of Europe today was no surprise and yet the ES is down 180bps? Bulls better wake up or they'll be buying the dip at 1175.

Crazy market! VIX future curve is in backwardation now!

key time, make it or break it.

hey cobra rsp didn't make a new low..a good sign, right? i went long a little at 1233

I think Cobra's call on sell the rebound would've been right regardless of today's news on Italy. How are things looking for a short term rebound before the Aug 9th FOMC? Seems less and less likely especially if the algos are going to go insane over the headlines.

stucap wrote:I fear that the btfd cavalry is currently on the other side of this trade targeting some point below that I cannot figure out. Seems like every attempt to btfd gets gobbled up quickly (see 8am hourly candle on the ES). The brick walls that used to befuddle bears on any and every support line are now standing 100 ft tall in front of the bulls at any and every resistance line. Absent a big reversal today, a move like this after a hammer yesterday, makes me want to run for the hills. The news out of Europe today was no surprise and yet the ES is down 180bps? Bulls better wake up or they'll be buying the dip at 1175.

not sure if it helps(or holds true) but after the hammer on the daily chart after a big down day the follow on day is mostly low (i.e. close lower) [that's after looking @ quite a few daily bars]. but the day after (which is tomorrow[friday]) be the positive (green day).

Wellllll Still holding my longs from yesterday so I am hoping the short term bottom is in for a few days.Have to leave early to day.Got a family picknic and will be eating a lot of hot dogs.Hey BB52x since you lost your breakfast come on over for some hot dogs. Ha

Well, Kena I hold long from yesterday too. And added some more today in lows, so let's wait and see. But i'll be fast reversing... if they let me do it.

as of now low of the day = 123.47 the low yesterday = 123.45 { this is with SPY }

there it goes ... now to neverland i guess

Options update

Enter 2 NFLX 250 calls (stop 250)
2 GOOG 590 calls (stop 585)
2 AMZN 205 calls ; stop 50 dma (203)

wish me luck

drip drip drip ... lower lower lower, into a muderhole we go..

.

AK84 wrote:Options update

Enter 2 NFLX 250 calls (stop 250)
2 GOOG 590 calls (stop 585)
2 AMZN 205 calls ; stop 50 dma (203)

wish me luck

Better to day then yesterday.

is today a trend day? new low after 10:30am?

At SPX 1233, the correction is now official (10% below the high).

A few observations:

My bottom fishing long of Monday looks likely to stop out for loss if SPY goes to lower lows.
McClellan Oscillator, which I follow closely, has been stuck very oversold quite long. Usually, this low this long has started correcting by now. Behaving different.
Common VIX pattern is to spike up and drop back within a few days. Now holding up at sustained levels. This is more like late 2007, when levels stayed up and lows came with spikes up to 30+.
Yesterday ran a lot of stops. There is probably another slug below yesterdays lows with people tightening. So, another run possible.
Just plain treacherous out there.