Cobra's Market View

Shorts don't mess with world bank, this is Uncle Ben and the gang message, we got cash. DBV here, 1min. and 5min.

Cobra,

Looks like the eventual roadmap is to 1250ish on the S&P, think it gets there in one shot without a breather, or do we fake out the bears and move down to 1150, then move up to 1250. The lows likely will hold for at least a month or more from the August 8/9 bottom.

Thanks

uempel wrote:My next targets are the MA 75 on the weekly (377 on the daily) and most notably the lower band of the weekly BB13/1, now at 1225. Don't think I'll short the weekly 75, but I'm sure going to short the lower BB 13/1 band of the weekly.

SPX2.png

Daily is now trade above 1std 20,2 BB. more room to run maybe until we hit the mid BB?

That should do it.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_5504.html

Importance of BB13/1 - a close look at September/October 2008:

Bears trap

StrikePrice: "Wipeout."

Look now, dude.

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_5878.html

SPY on the hard to borrow list on tradestation. I can't short SPY. Does anyone else experience the same from their brokerage?

99er wrote:That should do it.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_5504.html

Thanks for the reminder 99, I saw this channel on Friday and completely forgot it. For bulls it's essential that 1187 holds.

soku wrote:es 1190 area was the measured cycle peak. not sure if the current movement is break out or overshooting. tos still has problem, so i will wait for an hour or 2.

still not sure if it was a b-o. will check this pull back and make decision. if it is a b-o then pull back to retest, 1185 should hold. otherwise i will just ignore the couple bars above 1190

Very tempting but, only pro will short the chart like this, not me. more coffee for now.

A couple of notes open for comment for those with more experienced eyes.

The FTSE has retraced 50% of the largest wave (3) and fallen back. This could have completed a wave 4 abc expanded flat. If so however it would likely only be a wave 4 of a larger 3 yet to finish

The Dax has fallen out/backtested and fallen away from a rising wedge. But I see a double bottom for the completion of the larger 3, meaning this is wave 4 completing of a higher degree than the FTSE.

The CAC is the weakest of the three and ha today touched the 38.2% retrace of the wave [iii] of 3, having hit a lower level to complete 3of 1 and now a completed wave [iv] abc.

I have used 15 min global charts for these - sorry can't post them.

Some one care to advise if I've lost the plot completely.

I also have RSI 14 neg divergences on all three on 1,5 and 15mins.

OR low as support, hopefully some rebound here, but the pullback may not be over yet.

No way, will it wilt and die here?

My bullish bets are off if SPX cannot stay above 1187 today.

I am on my knee, please pull up so I got the buy the dip sign.....

cobra...If the diamond pattern fails....do you have a sense of the target to the downside?

A close look at 1187:

TNA and SSO for now, yeap, lets do it bulls.

great. now we back to where we started. what to do at 1185? no clue.
since i am not trading, i can think of the bigger picture for now. lots of people spot 1200 res, which is very accurate today, (and not too hard if you ask me). but, is the bear over? i don't think so. is the rebound over? i don't think so either.
in my perfect road map, i take the current move as a correction inside w4. and my w4 target is around 1220-1240. where will w5 go? in w3 we closed couple gaps and we still have 3-4 gaps open since 1 year ago. it will be "perfect" if we visit last year low around 1000, not only to close all the gaps, but tell those fat @$$ sitting on board of fed that qe2 is a complete failure and we are in worse position than before.