Michelle wrote:Al_Dente wrote:PAGING MICHELLE: u want weekend homework copper?
I'd love it.
ATTENTION MICHELLE, ALL OTHERS MOVE ALONG, NOTHING TO SEE HERE
Odd Shenagians in China’s copper industry. Copper SCRAP is being offered at a higher price in Guangdong than the REFINED copper price in Shanghai, according to an unnamed “smelter source”. [The smelters are the guys that take copper concentrates and convert them into “refined” copper]. The smelters are now slowing production, as their refining charges [their margins] have dropped due to volatile copper prices; some smelters have shut down “for October maintenance.” Hey, if they can’t make a buck, they ain’t gonna play; who can blame them !
Only the (copyright) Schwab TA Weekly rating has changed from last update to you (two weeks ago): upgraded (Friday) from “Avoid” to “Neutral:” If u are short, hold, do not initiate new short sale, macd turned bull, volume indicates accumulation.
Ned Davis still neutral, with interesting data: “FCX appears undervalued based on its Price/Earnings (TTM) of 6.22, which is less than the Materials sector’s bottom quintile value of 10.06…. FCX underperforms the SPX 43.75% of the time in October, with an average excess return of -3.36%”.
Cr Suisse still “Outperform” …they see growth post-strikes… “look past the near-term noise”…. big capex in 2012, etc.
So… perhaps let’s just rely on the charts for clarity, shall we? Take your FCX daily chart, overlay ECH and JJC and FXI (or a better China proxy), then run “correlation coefficient” indicators… see how crucial Chile and China are to copper, no? [Peru EPU and Indonesia IDX maybe less so?]… Well sure u say, everything correlates with everything nowadays…when u run that chart, page me and we’ll go the next step….
[full disclosure: I trade fcx and long/short metal ETFs whenever my signals will let me]