Cobra's Market View

agnosia, awhat do you see at 101.75 to short? just trying to understand?

By night there was a moment of bullishness, when the ECU bought some Italian and Spanish bonds in the secondary markets. But soon this move was interpreted as ”desperate and insufficient”. The essential fact was that…
“The Buck by night was big and bright
Deep in the sky of Europe!”

$DXY touched the resistance zone, where it was rejected.
$DXY Square update:

Breaking WTF News:
From the Conflict-of-Interest Desk (Giant-Vampire-Squid Department)

Mario Monti, the Italian Prime Minister-designate, will soon be Finance Minister in the new Italian government (announced pre-market). Monti’s “resume” shows that he is an “international advisor” to Goldman Sachs.

Mario Draghi, ex-Governor of the Bank of Italy, who just succeeded Jean Claude Trichet as president of the ECB (11/1/11), was Vice Chairman of GS a few years back, where his tenure was marred by a “little bit” of controversy regarding Euro swaps.

Lucas Papademos, the new President of the Greek Titanic (who succeeded the dynastic leader George Papandreou on 11/11/11), is a “highly respected economist” who was Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in 1980, and surprisingly, no connection to GS has been found (yet?).

[Rumor]: Papa Corleone, late of “The Godfather” movie franchise, was spotted rolling over in his grave.

agnosia wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:
Agnosia,

I think a big part of the crude move is a correction of WTI vs. Brent. The spread got really wide a while ago with WTI being weak. The spread appears to be collapsing rapidly now but may have some more to go still. See chart. Not sure what triggered this getting arbitraged out now.

thanks bachnut. that makes sense .... just read something along the same line just now.

wow. crazy . we just blew through 100 like nothing. i am short 101.75. lets see how well that works

I closed out my long the other day, and it was a mistake.
I think a lot of juice is out of the trade, but one can still make a case to long WTI and short brent.

dcurban1 wrote:

agnosia wrote:morning guys. was up till 4am trading /es and /cl . still very very confused as to why crude won't stop rising. regardless this morning we filled 100.74 gap. there's one more up at 101.87... i am trying some shorts for now before the inventory report comes out.

did a war break out i am not aware of???????

A lot of what is happening in the market is not making sense.

you should see the craziness that starts to happen from 2-3am.. plus last night i heard some big players were manipulating eur/jpy and eur/usd lower just to hunt for stops.. nice fair market we play in isn't it.

Delete post

alvian33 wrote:agnosia, awhat do you see at 101.75 to short? just trying to understand?

little bull flag up top. gap at 101.87... way too extended

agnosia wrote:

dcurban1 wrote:

agnosia wrote:morning guys. was up till 4am trading /es and /cl . still very very confused as to why crude won't stop rising. regardless this morning we filled 100.74 gap. there's one more up at 101.87... i am trying some shorts for now before the inventory report comes out.

did a war break out i am not aware of???????

A lot of what is happening in the market is not making sense.

you should see the craziness that starts to happen from 2-3am.. plus last night i heard some big players were manipulating eur/jpy and eur/usd lower just to hunt for stops.. nice fair market we play in isn't it.

That would not surprise me as it is easy to play around when the trading thins out.

You can almost see it if you look for it close enough.

Nice " U " bottom..maybe we go all the way to the top..Lets see.

agnosia wrote:

alvian33 wrote:agnosia, awhat do you see at 101.75 to short? just trying to understand?

little bull flag up top. gap at 101.87... way too extended

i want to go short with you on this one, do you have a stop for /cl?

http://atruecontrarian.blogspot.com/201 ... er-16.html

Look at the CAC Index in France and 6 month charts from the S&P and NASDAQ which highlight something interesting.

For the Nasdaq 100 the 200 day moving average is a support level and for the S&P it is a resistance level.

Intraday
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

Cobra said:'people yet again see this as a great buying opportunity. unbelievable."
Still, spy 125 OE put is the highest open interest among its chain. It form a floor on spy.

agnosia wrote:

dcurban1 wrote:

agnosia wrote:morning guys. was up till 4am trading /es and /cl . still very very confused as to why crude won't stop rising. regardless this morning we filled 100.74 gap. there's one more up at 101.87... i am trying some shorts for now before the inventory report comes out.

did a war break out i am not aware of???????

A lot of what is happening in the market is not making sense.

you should see the craziness that starts to happen from 2-3am.. plus last night i heard some big players were manipulating eur/jpy and eur/usd lower just to hunt for stops.. nice fair market we play in isn't it.

i'm not seeing that in the price of eur/usd. if anything, there was a pretty huge relief bounce when the London market opened, and was sustained until around 5am this morning when EZ market data started to trickle into the market. even after that, the EUR/USD hasn't been able to drop below Japan's open's lows.

there was surprising vol in the late fx sessions, but if there were stops being hunted, i see them more on the short side then on the long.

KENA wrote:Nice " U " bottom..maybe we go all the way to the top..Lets see.

KENA, you are overly optimistic today. resistance kiss good bye type of trade, under 200ma in 1min. I would not be looking for a good move up until we manage to move over 200ma.

a little neckline trubulence?... flight to target may now resume?

eur/usd doing a zigzag to complete Wave 2. Man, does that mean we have a up day today and a drop tomorrow ?

dcurban1 wrote:

agnosia wrote:

dcurban1 wrote:

agnosia wrote:morning guys. was up till 4am trading /es and /cl . still very very confused as to why crude won't stop rising. regardless this morning we filled 100.74 gap. there's one more up at 101.87... i am trying some shorts for now before the inventory report comes out.

did a war break out i am not aware of???????

A lot of what is happening in the market is not making sense.

you should see the craziness that starts to happen from 2-3am.. plus last night i heard some big players were manipulating eur/jpy and eur/usd lower just to hunt for stops.. nice fair market we play in isn't it.

That would not surprise me as it is easy to play around when the trading thins out.

You can almost see it if you look for it close enough.

3am the fx market isn't "thin". volume actually picks up quite a bit then. obviously the heaviest volume is overlap with the US open around 8-10am. it then dries up pretty quickly usually between 10-11am. but the fx market has been surprisingly active even in the late sessions. London exchanges handle the largest FX orders, so it's important to be up to watch those opens, even if they are often faded into the US market.

not sure where we r going. ecb is buying spain and italy bonds, which supports the risky assets for now. i guess oil over 100 is also 1 aftermath.
es 1242 was defined monday and still in play. to the up side, 1252-1254 area are still there. this month is very indecisive, end up quite balanced. i guess this oe may be quiet.

max pain is at 124