Cobra's Market View

SPX weekly: the BUY signal confirmed on 10/14 is still active.
A weekly close under 1202.5 would, however, cancel it…all IMHO.

Hello MTA's
It's been quite some time since my last post here and i'd liketo have my little contribution. Somebody posted a few days (last week?) ago the three peaks and a domed house scenario and liked it, i've been following it since.
The first image it the 2H DJIA (looks smoother), the second one is the theory. Ignore the time and price (for the planned moves), only the direction needs to be watched if this formation will unfold by january or february, it also fits with thanksgiving and Santa's rally. Will this be the trend in next weeks? Only time will tell. Anyway, i'll watch it closely.
Have a great weekend and GLTA!

Later edit: i've edited the charts and now it's only one, easier to watch.

PAGING Cougar: I’m so jealous of your gann and yr mariachi shite; if I could only read yr charts better, I’d be dangerous. Eg on yr AAPL 60 min chart are those pink/green dots SAR stop and reverse, or Vstop volatility stops or what? Also, I’m trying to find an “approximation” on suckcharts to mirror your Linear Regression pink curve. I know yr swinging … but scalping I’m looking for it to signal long above regression pink line and short below pink, but it doesn’t work that way as yr pink line bisects every candle most of the time. So I’m settling instead, for the moment, on something akin to 13ema on 60min suckcharts.
PS: Quit usin’ that JJC wench as a view of real copper, I done told u already, she’s a trollope.
All I got from yr GLD chart was a lovely vision of early Roman aqueducts, only your water is gold and it flows uphill and has nice pink support.
I think I’ve found the solution to reading yr charts better, I need: 1) better spectacles and 2) bigger brain.
PPS: don’t tell The Baron I’m jealous of gann or I’ll never hear the end of it. I’ve not even started on his charts yet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N090STPx ... re=related

Cougar, i have to ask you one favour, can you please post a follow up of the attached chart? You've post it in june i think... (i have to be honest, it was my wallpaper for 1 month, great work and thanks for sharing).

$TED SPREAD is still terminally ill (bear spy), or as the squids put it: “Italy likely to check into liquidity hospital” and the “Euro area” economy is moving from “okay” 3Quarter to “bad” 4Q.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p ... =248214703
Also, note the Greek bank NBG adr closed up +2.08% friday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_yvrugtnpo

I want to have an evil plan too....

Since we are sharing our evil plans....

This chart will be in Tuesday's analysis.

Monthly S&P 500 with MACD going back 20 years. Look at the cross coming between the 50 and 200 day moving averages.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Wow, Thank you all, lots to digest. here is another WOW factor, When SPY new low and the Vix not spiking high. well just something to confuse you more. got to go shopping now bye.

Hey Timmay...

DX Weekly http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/dx-weekly.html
DX Daily http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/dx-daily.html

Manipulate this.

That was a fantastic weekend update from Cobra, loving the insights here. Just a minor note to add:

Odd lotters are stills buying as of Thursday, lol. It's generally a good idea to fade the odd lotters.

NYSE Odd Lot Transactions

The New York Stock Exchange specialists reported the following odd-lot transactions,
in shares, for November 17.

Odd Lot Purchases 31,311,930
Odd Lot Sales 15,969,574
Odd Lot Short Sales 15,570,497
Odd Lot Purchases Dol Vol $1,317,176,980
Odd Lot Other Sales Dol Vol $655,403,754
Odd Lot Short Sales Dol Vol $675,128,833

DOCTOR COPPER
Friday Reuters: China's top smelter Jiangxi Copper and FCX “have agreed on a 12.4 percent rise in term treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for 2012 concentrate shipments…The 2012 TC/RCs have been set at $63.5 a tonne and 6.35 U.S. cents a pound, up from $56.5 and 5.65 cents for full year of 2011 for standard, clean concentrates. …TC/RCs are paid by FCX to Jiangxi for converting its concentrate into refined metal and deducted from concentrate sale prices based on London Metal Exchange copper prices.….
…..Spot standard, clean concentrates to China changed hands at TC/RCs of near $40 and 4 cents versus $45-$55 and 4.5-5.5 cents in late September, traders said. Offers were below $30 and 3 cents from international trading firms, down from about $40 and 4 cents last month, after supply fell on strikes….. Jiangxi … expects … supply of copper concentrate … to rise in 2012 and may see a surplus after 2013, as new capacity comes on the stream….”

Any smarter copper person who sees that as bullish, please post and explain how/why.

Weekly FCX chart shows downtrend channel with no pos diverg yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p= ... =240748029
Daily FCX shows bear with support at the 18 Oct low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p= ... =243148554
Put/call ratio is 1.0…..http://screencast.com/t/iMsx1e9Neq
And Fridays COT report shows SHORT not long copper: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/02/cftc.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf3HjUF5 ... re=related

tomsky wrote:Cougar, i have to ask you one favour, can you please post a follow up of the attached chart? You've post it in june i think... (i have to be honest, it was my wallpaper for 1 month, great work and thanks for sharing).

Hello Dr. Al and Tomsky! Here is the updated chart "tomsky" wants to see. I did not post it yet because the recent moves were so “schizoid” that the “3 Line Break system” was subjected to an unusually powerful time compression. Therefore, we did not get yet to a new time vibration. Right now, the next and EARLIEST Vib. point is projected around Nov 28 and the next Hurstian nest of lows is expected, the EARLIEST, around the Winter Solstice…LOL!
My biased interpretation is that this next vibration would be a LOW, to be corrected briefly, before the plunge into the big trough…But this is just an opinion…We have to wait and SEE THE FACTS…Only then should we move, with conviction, together with the price action…
=================
Al; On the AAPL 60 min chart: the colorful dots represent “price reversal set-ups” according to a complex indicator which places them after an “excessive multiple day price extension” according to some preset factors: L (# of days), Min. Consol. Index (which indicates the magnitude of the overextension) and Final Range Factor (which ensures that the final move is ‘good sized’). By itself, it is not telling us a lot but if the rest of the mariachi sing with it…”Cielito Lindo” might smile for the player…
=================
Finally: thank you for your interest in my posts.
I enjoy when some chaps try to understand the principle behind the game, and you guys definitely are doing that…People who are on that path are well rewarded for their hard work.

Al_Dente wrote:DOCTOR COPPER
Friday Reuters: China's top smelter Jiangxi Copper and FCX “have agreed on a 12.4 percent rise in term treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for 2012 concentrate shipments…The 2012 TC/RCs have been set at $63.5 a tonne and 6.35 U.S. cents a pound, up from $56.5 and 5.65 cents for full year of 2011 for standard, clean concentrates. …TC/RCs are paid by FCX to Jiangxi for converting its concentrate into refined metal and deducted from concentrate sale prices based on London Metal Exchange copper prices.….
…..Spot standard, clean concentrates to China changed hands at TC/RCs of near $40 and 4 cents versus $45-$55 and 4.5-5.5 cents in late September, traders said. Offers were below $30 and 3 cents from international trading firms, down from about $40 and 4 cents last month, after supply fell on strikes….. Jiangxi … expects … supply of copper concentrate … to rise in 2012 and may see a surplus after 2013, as new capacity comes on the stream….”

Any smarter copper person who sees that as bullish, please post and explain how/why.

Weekly FCX chart shows downtrend channel with no pos diverg yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p= ... =240748029
Daily FCX shows bear with support at the 18 Oct low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p= ... =243148554
Put/call ratio is 1.0…..http://screencast.com/t/iMsx1e9Neq
And Fridays COT report shows SHORT not long copper: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/02/cftc.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf3HjUF5 ... re=related

Both Copper and Silver charts are just plain ugly.

I mean plumbers butt crack ugly.

Well this is priceless re: Barak and Wen (the PM of China)
Worth reading, but the standout trivia line is: “we” called PM Jibao “grouchy.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/world ... &emc=tha22

PS: thanks cougar and dcurban1

They’re yakking over on cobra’s outlook board about the put/call ratio potentially signaling bull, and Cobra’s getting worried that there are too many bears on board = contrary indicating bull.
So here’s my “bull” chart of the put/call ratio (10ma). When the dots fall below the “zone” SPY can pop, but OFTEN ONLY BOUNCES FOR A DAY OR SO. Note the green lines indicate bottom, red top, and blue are fails. ps: CPCE is INVERTED here
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$ ... =237195458

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_20.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_20.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/ym_20.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/nq_20.html

Have a good one.

tomsky wrote:Hello MTA's
It's been quite some time since my last post here and i'd liketo have my little contribution. Somebody posted a few days (last week?) ago the three peaks and a domed house scenario and liked it, i've been following it since.
The first image it the 2H DJIA (looks smoother), the second one is the theory. Ignore the time and price (for the planned moves), only the direction needs to be watched if this formation will unfold by january or february, it also fits with thanksgiving and Santa's rally. Will this be the trend in next weeks? Only time will tell. Anyway, i'll watch it closely.
Have a great weekend and GLTA!

Later edit: i've edited the charts and now it's only one, easier to watch.

Thank you for the update. I have been wondering why Doug kass has been so bullish lately. He has been following this pattern quite closely I believe.

3 peaks and a dome has a time component to it as well. Stock Trader's almanac talked about it earlier this year. We are closer to the end collapse than the spike up.

The pic is at the bottom of the page.

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/ ... ertId=1452

dcurban1 wrote:3 peaks and a dome has a time component to it as well. Stock Trader's almanac talked about it earlier this year. We are closer to the end collapse than the spike up.

The pic is at the bottom of the page.

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/ ... ertId=1452

AIN_0511_20110428_Dow-MACD.jpg

3PeaksDomedHouseBasicModel.jpg

It's one scenario, just keep an open mind. A lot of traders thought the H&S would materialize and it didn't. Similarly, a lot of people were guessing the triangle would break to the upside and that was blown up as well. Hope you have a good trading week. I plan on watching price and trading accordingly.