Cobra's Market View

lqiantobe wrote:Corba~ I know usually you don;t comment on any specific stocks, can you please say sth. about BAC? do you think is it the time to load some?

BAC may have more rebound to go in the short-term (above 50% I'll say, because it could be seen as completed a 3 push down now is trying 2 leg up) but don't forget the long-term trend is definitely down. So you can bet your luck on buying exactly the bottom here, but I won't long because I don't long stock that keeps have lower low.

Established a pilot short position yesterday. I suspect this is early or a dumb idea.
This is counter-trend as my intermediate term mechanical model is still signaling buy.
I am basically fishing around for a possible top.
It is in the money at the moment, but I don't have enough evidence yet to have a lot of conviction about it.
I may reposition it or close it as things unfold.

If the $ stays strong and the long bond holds up, my conviction will grow.
I get more bearish if we see SPY<124.
I noticed last night that OEX Put/Call ratio has surged last 10 days while CBOE Put/Call has declined. Sometimes there is a tell in this sort of smart money / dumb money check. Hard to say though.
Probably have to wait for after new years for better clarity.

BullBear52x wrote:UUP any one, I am betting on the 3rd time is a charm. daily chart.

I have been long $ in size for awhile. I hope you are right.

BullBear52x wrote:

cougar wrote:

cougar wrote:GLD now trading under the MAW(89) on weekly, as discussed on Dec, when my view encounterd some vehement oposition!
Nothing to do with "conspiracy theory"...Just findamentals of hypothecation, borrowing... and TA of cycles = left translation!

GLD weekly chart:

using Fib extensions measurement here. she is heading lower.

Great chart bullbear. The sell off is getting weaker and as your chart shows one more big sell off untill gold comes to support. The volume is falling while the price falls so watch for the exhaustion bar before buying into gold.
Cheers thanks guys for all your great charts

TRIN intraday, just for today, just for the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN& ... =249247714

OR breakout target. Failed 7 out 10 recently.

Nasdaq red...spy in a world of its own.

OK here is the chart that show a little more inside what happen after Trin spike what I see here.

SB73 wrote:Nasdaq red...spy in a world of its own.

NAS up 8 points

Apparently yesterday was a Bradley turn date, interesting

Mr. BachNut wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:UUP any one, I am betting on the 3rd time is a charm. daily chart.

I have been long $ in size for awhile. I hope you are right.

I'm long dollar as well. The breakdown of 1.30 on the EUR/USD, is signalling to me that the powers at be in Europe are well into their under-the-table asset buying program. Dollar strength will be the theme for the time being - though I think it'll start to lose some of the inverse correlation with the equity markets (so bears be careful selling equities on the /DX chart alone), as dollar strength will be fabricated on the liquidity infusion in the Eurozone.

Long SPXU 13.15, stop 12.65... betting on Minor 2 finally being over, if it isn't then small risk / huge reward for Minor 3!!!

60 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251687166

johnnywa wrote:

SB73 wrote:Nasdaq red...spy in a world of its own.

NAS up 8 points

my mistake...I was looking at qqq and it was red when I started to type

jarbo456 wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:UUP any one, I am betting on the 3rd time is a charm. daily chart.

I have been long $ in size for awhile. I hope you are right.

I'm long dollar as well. The breakdown of 1.30 on the EUR/USD, is signalling to me that the powers at be in Europe are well into their under-the-table asset buying program. Dollar strength will be the theme for the time being - though I think it'll start to lose some of the inverse correlation with the equity markets (so bears be careful selling equities on the /DX chart alone), as dollar strength will be fabricated on the liquidity infusion in the Eurozone.

Yeah, I am imagining we may see a time next year when equities are positively correlated to the $.

Switched short to long in Silver, expecting some bounce here, just another opinion.
Here is the link to nice read:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... le2285489/
I like the number 7:
7. Don’t fully trust anyone – even the supposed experts.

Mr. BachNut wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:UUP any one, I am betting on the 3rd time is a charm. daily chart.

I have been long $ in size for awhile. I hope you are right.

I'm long dollar as well. The breakdown of 1.30 on the EUR/USD, is signalling to me that the powers at be in Europe are well into their under-the-table asset buying program. Dollar strength will be the theme for the time being - though I think it'll start to lose some of the inverse correlation with the equity markets (so bears be careful selling equities on the /DX chart alone), as dollar strength will be fabricated on the liquidity infusion in the Eurozone.

Yeah, I am imagining we may see a time next year when equities are positively correlated to the $.

That's what I want to see, that will translate to a real growth not what we have in 2011. Market up and Dollar up the whole world will have a real good time.

CMT wrote:Long SPXU 13.15, stop 12.65... betting on Minor 2 finally being over, if it isn't then small risk / huge reward for Minor 3!!!

Would be noice. Got in on tuesday, in the middle of the range unfortunately but glad I didn't get out. If $bpspx doesn't drop tonight I won't sleep well.

Cobra,

What do you think MAA after MDD?

BullBear52x wrote:OK here is the chart that show a little more inside what happen after Trin spike what I see here.

I watch TRIN daily just slightly differently than you
Open/high/low/close TRIN (not close only)
Over the last 10 months, when it hits 4-6 intraday (not close) odds favor more selling ahead (red arrows).
When TRIN hit 6+ intraday it signaled a bottom (green arrows above 6 line) with just one fail.
Yesterday’s trin was only 5 point something.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN& ... =250561509