Cobra's Market View

When we talk about bullish or bearish what is time frame? some people hearing the word bearish as if the stock market going to crash. if we talked trade the most out look is one to two days at best, like right now short term momentum is weakening, longer term daily chart we still have higher high. like Dr. Al said don't underestimate the power of bulls because they have printing press and they can gap this market up as they please, well, I chart what is in front of me to predict the out come there is no way I can see a gap up or a gap down, someone seems to be able to read what the central bank going to do, someone thinking buy and hold still well and kicking and the only way, and someone think shorting the market is evil, I like TA when price mentioned, love them, volatility o yay, bring it on. someone think market is a scam when it became unpredictable well, should it be predictable? any time market go sideways I can feel a tension from both side one way or another it's all good and fun .... really!

BullBear52x wrote:it's all good and fun .... really!

Well I for one am sure having fun.
And here’s some silly to add a level of wacky to your day… see u tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TOxhzAm7fY&feature=fvsr

I don't know if I would call it fun; more like interesting. When they pump it up overnight through resistence; it shows how real the risks are, and when reality happens they will have reduced the pain. I would act accordingly given the ball was in my court. There is no reason for the movement we see and indicators only work when the boys are not playing their game. Think about it, a 50% or larger haircut is by definition a default; unless you simply say it is not. Problem is getting the people who realized the loss to believe you.

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:it's all good and fun .... really!

Well I for one am sure having fun.
And here’s some silly to add a level of wacky to your day… see u tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TOxhzAm7fY&feature=fvsr

here is the song for you http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53Eqe-mDB5s

stevej wrote:I don't know if I would call it fun; more like interesting. When they pump it up overnight through resistence; it shows how real the risks are, and when reality happens they will have reduced the pain. I would act accordingly given the ball was in my court. There is no reason for the movement we see and indicators only work when the boys are not playing their game. Think about it, a 50% or larger haircut is by definition a default; unless you simply say it is not. Problem is getting the people who realized the loss to believe you.

as a trader we need to understand counter trending is dangerous, resistance never guarantee the move will end there. if you are not counter trend you would never nail the top or the bottom but have to take into account the risk associate with it, your draw down and all. pick the high and low of it here's good one just for educational purpose only I use NYMO and TRIN for example, this maybe too basic for most but just something to talk about.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-1 ... m-aaa.html

Thank god. I might be able to cash out in the morning.

stevej wrote:I don't know if I would call it fun; more like interesting. When they pump it up overnight through resistence; it shows how real the risks are, and when reality happens they will have reduced the pain. I would act accordingly given the ball was in my court. There is no reason for the movement we see and indicators only work when the boys are not playing their game. Think about it, a 50% or larger haircut is by definition a default; unless you simply say it is not. Problem is getting the people who realized the loss to believe you.

Indicators should not tell us what to do anyway…In that sense they do not “work” or “fail to work”. They only emphasize a state of the market, to be interpreted according to our understanding. This includes the timing of various types of intervention.

To illustrate that, I shall continue a thought about the tops of UPRO, started on Friday…hopefully with fewer typos. The latest 5 high spikes (red circles) were all either in pre-market or during the first hour of regular trading ..and followed by corrections. Actually, the latest of them (#5) happened during the first minute of the Friday pre-market.
Da Boys were trying AGAIN to tell the bernank: “Look, we are doing our best to lift it by night with cheap bogus futures trades, but we need more money, because the hedgies and the retailers sell into our up moves….We need help! QE, QE, QE!!!”

But, this Friday, the bernank finally heard their prayers…and a double whipsaw followed: very technical, by Fibonacci extensions standards. “In retrospect, it was a classical ‘flat’ ” - would say the wavy gravy people...But, as always, only their hindsight is 20/20. Most remarkable move: the 15 min spacing the close of the stock market and the one of the options market = UP for one whole Fibonacci interval !!!
Message: “Thank you Ben! You see…we do our job!”

And here, I have a suggestion for the “nubies“: don’t leave the scene at 16:00 EST, in particular on an OpEx Friday, if you sense that manipulation is in the air…Even if you don’t trade options (and probably you shouldn’t) you could learn a lot during those 15 minutes. If you don’t understand what’s happening, ask someone else…
===============


I had a reason to watch everything closely …As posted on Thursday Jan 5, I wrote (sold to open), first thing in the morning, QQQ 57 P and SPY 127 P, both expiring on Fri the 13-th!

Do not forget: Jan VIX options are expiring on Tue and the options market closed on Friday also at 16:15 EST..
Therefore, for the long weekend, VIX HAD TO be parked in a strategic, technical spot.
However, on close, lots of FEB calls were changing hands…

Maybe some people were buying “protection” for bullish portfolios in a jittery market…
Probably, some others were constructing strangles…like I did:

Thank you for your opinion; and "thoughts" of analysis. I have been trading for years-----never successfully. In fact, I have over 300k in capital losses. At 3k a year i will need to be a miracle of science to take them. That is one reason I joined this site. Currently I am about 40k short, and very short term; Friday. I expect to get my ass handed to me on a silver platter, but I just counld not help it. I believed the market should go down. My beliefs have cost me greatly in the past. Hopefully, I will learn from those of you who have something to opine, or I will find someone to manage my account! LOL

EURUSD: Another Bottoming Attempt

if the EW pattern that I am following is the correct one, in my opinion EUR is in the prcess of establishing the bottom of the second wave (A) of a Double ZZ off the May 2011 Top.

In addition to the daily momentum positive divergences we also have a weekly Doji, which can be a bottoming candlestick.

If Price has established the bottom of the wave (A) then we should expect a multiweek countertrend rebound (3-4 weeks) with a target in the range 1.3240-1.3434, probably the falling trend line will not be breached.

Prior to the 0.382 retracement we have the 1.3143-1.3210 horizontal resistance

The 20 w and weekly gap fill at 1.3384 could be a magnet.

In addition to positive divergences and a potential weekly bottoming candlestick we need an ending pattern which has to establish the bottom and allow price to initate the secuence of higher highs/lows (15 min ; 60 min; daily time frames)

Regarding the ending pattern, it is not a clear one but if the DX Ending Diagonal pan out then the EUR could also have traced a wedge. Therefore as long as price down not kill it I am assuming that we also have an ending pattern.

The first step is to close by tomorrow today´s gap down at 1.2677 then to achieve an eod print above 1.2878.

If the EUR in on the verge of tracing a wave (B) then it will be a big positive for the equity market

Evening Update

ES http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/41

Have a good one!

TWT wrote:EURUSD: Another Bottoming Attempt

if the EW pattern that I am following is the correct one, in my opinion EUR is in the prcess of establishing the bottom of the second wave (A) of a Double ZZ off the May 2011 Top.

In addition to the daily momentum positive divergences we also have a weekly Doji, which can be a bottoming candlestick.

If Price has established the bottom of the wave (A) then we should expect a multiweek countertrend rebound (3-4 weeks) with a target in the range 1.3240-1.3434, probably the falling trend line will not be breached.

Prior to the 0.382 retracement we have the 1.3143-1.3210 horizontal resistance

The 20 w and weekly gap fill at 1.3384 could be a magnet.

In addition to positive divergences and a potential weekly bottoming candlestick we need an ending pattern which has to establish the bottom and allow price to initate the secuence of higher highs/lows (15 min ; 60 min; daily time frames)

Regarding the ending pattern, it is not a clear one but if the DX Ending Diagonal pan out then the EUR could also have traced a wedge. Therefore as long as price down not kill it I am assuming that we also have an ending pattern.

The first step is to close by tomorrow today´s gap down at 1.2677 then to achieve an eod print above 1.2878.

If the EUR in on the verge of tracing a wave (B) then it will be a big positive for the equity market

Thanks for your comments etc., but the recent down draft in the Euro hasn't been cruel to equities why would a move higher now be positive. The correlation seems weak at the moment.

Update

ES http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/52
NQ http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/54

Should be fun tomorrow!

SB73 wrote:

TWT wrote:EURUSD: Another Bottoming Attempt

if the EW pattern that I am following is the correct one, in my opinion EUR is in the prcess of establishing the bottom of the second wave (A) of a Double ZZ off the May 2011 Top.

In addition to the daily momentum positive divergences we also have a weekly Doji, which can be a bottoming candlestick.

If Price has established the bottom of the wave (A) then we should expect a multiweek countertrend rebound (3-4 weeks) with a target in the range 1.3240-1.3434, probably the falling trend line will not be breached.

Prior to the 0.382 retracement we have the 1.3143-1.3210 horizontal resistance

The 20 w and weekly gap fill at 1.3384 could be a magnet.

In addition to positive divergences and a potential weekly bottoming candlestick we need an ending pattern which has to establish the bottom and allow price to initate the secuence of higher highs/lows (15 min ; 60 min; daily time frames)

Regarding the ending pattern, it is not a clear one but if the DX Ending Diagonal pan out then the EUR could also have traced a wedge. Therefore as long as price down not kill it I am assuming that we also have an ending pattern.

The first step is to close by tomorrow today´s gap down at 1.2677 then to achieve an eod print above 1.2878.

If the EUR in on the verge of tracing a wave (B) then it will be a big positive for the equity market

Thanks for your comments etc., but the recent down draft in the Euro hasn't been cruel to equities why would a move higher now be positive. The correlation seems weak at the moment.

It is a "fear" indicator for the European debt crisis ::::::::::::