Cobra's Market View

down target failed. nowadays, simply it doesn't work.

SPX: Initial Zig Zag completed = Wave (A) or (W) watching the strength of the bounce

jarbo456 wrote:

L_T wrote:Jarbo are you lurking? Your CRR trade gave me "strangle fever". I'm looking for names this week that may move big after they report. I'm researching QCOM and MTW to see they are prospects. Do you have anything on deck?

i'm looking at a couple, but nothing yet.

a lot of my setups this week look like straight shorts...(puts). might wait to see if VIX cools down later today first before i enter anything...but went short MS Mar 19 puts this morning.

Hmmm short MS are you worried about possible Facebook IPO giving MS a lift........thinking along the lines of "if MS can get Facebook IPO maybe they can get other upcoming IPO business".......totally spit-balling here and I could be over-thinking things.

Cobra wrote:down target failed. nowadays, simply it doesn't work.

Even numbers like 130.00 hardly work on first try. They usually take a day or more

We could have completed "C", but we could also be in "b" of "C"....

this rebound has legs. tinted area as target. but the morning low will be revisited within days, not necessarily today though.

Bears my be attacking UNG. Go bears!

Petsamo wrote:Bears my be attacking UNG. Go bears!

I am looking to start a position on UNG....any thoughts. 5.50ish would be a 50% retrace.

L_T wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

L_T wrote:Jarbo are you lurking? Your CRR trade gave me "strangle fever". I'm looking for names this week that may move big after they report. I'm researching QCOM and MTW to see they are prospects. Do you have anything on deck?

i'm looking at a couple, but nothing yet.

a lot of my setups this week look like straight shorts...(puts). might wait to see if VIX cools down later today first before i enter anything...but went short MS Mar 19 puts this morning.

Hmmm short MS are you worried about possible Facebook IPO giving MS a lift........thinking along the lines of "if MS can get Facebook IPO maybe they can get other upcoming IPO business".......totally spit-balling here and I could be over-thinking things.

overthinking it. if MS is going to get the fbook IPO or not, doesn't matter IMO. if greece figures out it's debt issue is more important...think that will come to smack MS in the face more than likely.

at the 200day MA after a good run up...carving out a triangle...

i think the better bet is down, with a stop loss above 19.

i'm starting to like the AMZN 190/195 strangle...but it ain't cheap.

5min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794
short covering abates

PAGING TART
Hat tip 2 u last week TVIX……many thanks for bs update, as u kno, it is not yet mainstream media covered…

PAGING JAR: anything from the muni desk?

SB73 wrote:

Petsamo wrote:Bears my be attacking UNG. Go bears!

I am looking to start a position on UNG....any thoughts. 5.50ish would be a 50% retrace.

I think that's a good idea. Since I've been winning, I'm willing to buy in at 5.60, 150 shares only. How many shares are you thinking of getting?

Cobra wrote:this rebound has legs. tinted area as target. but the morning low will be revisited within days, not necessarily today though.

gap fill Cobra?

Petsamo wrote:

SB73 wrote:

Petsamo wrote:Bears my be attacking UNG. Go bears!

I am looking to start a position on UNG....any thoughts. 5.50ish would be a 50% retrace.

I think that's a good idea. Since I've been winning, I'm willing to buy in at 5.60, 150 shares only. How many shares are you thinking of getting?

Total position would be 400 shares...200 initial and add on stength.

SB73 wrote:

Petsamo wrote:

SB73 wrote:

Petsamo wrote:Bears my be attacking UNG. Go bears!

I am looking to start a position on UNG....any thoughts. 5.50ish would be a 50% retrace.

I think that's a good idea. Since I've been winning, I'm willing to buy in at 5.60, 150 shares only. How many shares are you thinking of getting?

Total position would be 400 shares...200 initial and add on stength.

Sounds good to me

L_T wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

L_T wrote:Jarbo are you lurking? Your CRR trade gave me "strangle fever". I'm looking for names this week that may move big after they report. I'm researching QCOM and MTW to see they are prospects. Do you have anything on deck?

i'm looking at a couple, but nothing yet.

a lot of my setups this week look like straight shorts...(puts). might wait to see if VIX cools down later today first before i enter anything...but went short MS Mar 19 puts this morning.

Hmmm short MS are you worried about possible Facebook IPO giving MS a lift........thinking along the lines of "if MS can get Facebook IPO maybe they can get other upcoming IPO business".......totally spit-balling here and I could be over-thinking things.

here's an idea of what the AMZN strangle would look like...

190//195 strangle.
for 10 strangles, it'll cost a debit of something like $16850...

a 5% move would yield maybe 1800 on the long side, 1200 on the short side.
a 10% move would yield 6180 on the long side, 5319 on the short side.

slightly bullish strangle...

not really as large a return as i look for...especially with such a large initial debit. but we'll see...

Paging Jarbo:
How about AMZN 190/200/210 butterfly for $1.50 each instead of strangle for $16.85? Thanks

jarbo456 wrote:

L_T wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

L_T wrote:Jarbo are you lurking? Your CRR trade gave me "strangle fever". I'm looking for names this week that may move big after they report. I'm researching QCOM and MTW to see they are prospects. Do you have anything on deck?

i'm looking at a couple, but nothing yet.

a lot of my setups this week look like straight shorts...(puts). might wait to see if VIX cools down later today first before i enter anything...but went short MS Mar 19 puts this morning.

Hmmm short MS are you worried about possible Facebook IPO giving MS a lift........thinking along the lines of "if MS can get Facebook IPO maybe they can get other upcoming IPO business".......totally spit-balling here and I could be over-thinking things.

here's an idea of what the AMZN strangle would look like...

190//195 strangle.
for 10 strangles, it'll cost a debit of something like $16850...

a 5% move would yield maybe 1800 on the long side, 1200 on the short side.
a 10% move would yield 6180 on the long side, 5319 on the short side.

slightly bullish strangle...

not really as large a return as i look for...especially with such a large initial debit. but we'll see...

That is pricey. Are you manually estimating the 5% and 10% increases/decreases for the long and short side or do you have a calculator/web site/software for that?

SPY 5 min. basic fib info for today

Update, 12 days
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =254800720

fib courtesy clarkw, thanks

watch RSI for another sell