05/12/2012 Weekend Discussion

[cougar]

Volpinacci got his BUY orders for CHK…and he is a serious BOT, with no sense of humor!

Cougar you always seem to find jewels. I found more info. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... d=yahoo_hs . I think this fall is probably pure manipulation. Also http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stock ... f=16&off=1. Notice the current exhaustion bars surpassing 2008 crash below (last chart). There was one more move down in 2008 after the highest Bar. Maybe the move on friday is it(not visable on first graph); see first chart. In after hours trading, the price is up on this newshttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/chesapeak ... 37592.html CHK going to the loan sharks.

Thanks for the information! Good observations!
I also looked at the intraday for CHK and volume kinetics suggest an increased positive interest at the end of this recent drop.
I would be buying, on Monday, only an impulsive intraday up move = a V-shaped price recovery.

[cougar]

TNH: technical bounce for an oversold stock. Normally, I take the risk of an early BUY…but not here…yet. Reason: intraday the up-move was slow and flattened on close (not shown).

Potential scenarios for a BUY:
1. UP (shallow) => DOWN (shallow) => UP (impulsive)
2. UP (shallow) => UP IMPULSIVE (higher acceleration)

[KeiZai]

Things are getting interesting in Europe

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18048942

[cougar]

Free and efficient markets do not go up and down by following mirror slopes…like SPX did, measured on the defining MAW(55)….Manipulated markets DO!
Lowered my target for the first pre-election low to 1327.6.

If Spain firmly rejects the bailout + austerity combination => 1275 is an optimistic support (*)

==============

(*) Rick Santelli: “…not now…but there will be a time when we SHOULD short the FED!”

[Al_Dente]

60 min chart notes:
1) only IWM broke her early March lows (red arrows); she's the weak link
2) little green trendlines describe the current flag bounce (higher lows short-term)
3) banks show lower low April, but haven’t come close to breaking March lows yet (pink circle = lots of air between here and March lows).
But I am unable YET to get a decent short-term buy signal on the banks…

Just for fun, see our 60min banks compared to EUzone banks, with UDN inverted dollar in green behind Deutsche Bank,
and DBV (liquidity of the IMF banks, ex-China) in pink behind Suisse.

“Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something.”
[Thomas A. Edison, whose first phonograph record was on tinfoil]


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT9OXYtR ... re=related

[TWT]

Seems like many E-wavers are calling this down move off 1400 level as a wave 4 and accordingly, a wave 5 should commence soon, last through the summer and take us to the election. This also fits the three peaks and domed house pattern, with point 23 (approx. 1576) coming up around last half of July 2012.

The central bankers continue to accommodate wall st., this will not change until after the election. The only real question is how low they allow the markets to drop before this wave 5 begins. My guess is this wave 4 ends once we dip to 1316-1333 range.
Then a blast off of 250 points to 1576 !!

Most E-wavers have a strong propensity to not follow rules and are generally wrong. But with intervention, and what has to be a War Room to keep the bull going, highly reliable patterns have been repeatedly broken.

I'm not in the "this is wave 4 camp" until the mkt proves it to be. My primary count believes that this is looking more like a complex correction wave 2, and a strong down wave 3 will follow and as most E-wavers missed the moves up they will miss the wave down. I'm not much positioned for it just yet, but I am looking for it. That's what traders do. Yes, BTFD has been workable because of the following article. But nature sometimes gets it's way! This market should never have seen SPX 1000 and our problems are now worse and there will be no recovery. Debt must be deleveraged....PERIOD!

Wondering why no one goes to jail and Wall Street is manipulated with approval by this criminal administration? Read on:


"Obama delivered heated rhetoric, but his actions signaled different
priorities. Had Obama wanted to strike real fear in the hearts of
bankers, he might have appointed former special prosecutor Patrick
Fitzgerald or some other fire-breather as his attorney general.
Instead, he chose Eric Holder, a former Clinton Justice official who,
after a career in government, joined the Washington office of
Covington & Burling, a top-tier law firm with an elite white-collar
defense unit. The move to Covington, and back to Justice, is an
example of Washington’s revolving-door ritual, which, for Holder, has
been lucrative–he pulled in $2.1 million as a Covington partner in
2008, and $2.5 million (including deferred compensation) when he left
the firm in 2009.

"Putting a Covington partner–he spent nearly a decade at the firm–in
charge of Justice may have sent a signal to the financial community,
whose marquee names are Covington clients. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Deutsche Bank are
among the institutions that pay for Covington’s legal advice, some of
it relating to matters before the Department of Justice. But Holder’s
was not the only face at Justice familiar to Covington clients. Lanny
Breuer, who had co-chaired the white-collar defense unit at Covington
with Holder, was chosen to head the criminal division at Obama’s
Justice. Two other Covington lawyers followed Holder into top
positions, and Holder’s principal deputy, James Cole, was recruited
from Bryan Cave LLP, another white-shoe firm with A-list finance
clients."

- Peter J. Boyer in his excellent recent article “Why Can’t Obama
Bring Wall Street to Justice?”

I agree, in my opinion price is involved in a large Zig Zag down with a potential target in the range 1293-1258

Below a few charts with my road map in different time frames:

[cougar]

JPM on the validated Fiboncci extensions scale =>(35) => 31.6...but a rough ride!

[Mr. BachNut]

Wow. Great discussion chain this weekend. Good arguements bull and bear.
I don't have much to add, but I'll toss out this.
The dow, which still provides important leadership, has a little different profile than SPX and other indexs.
It is descending from a higher high whereas the other indexes are dropping from lower highs.
So, while the SPX is showing two clear waves down which argues that a bottom can be put in soon and the next move can begin, the dow presently has only one push down.
I am not dogmatic about Elliot waves but I agree strongly with Cobra's attitude toward two and three push moves.
I think we may need a bounce and second decline in the dow to be confident about a bottom.
The dow chart would look off if it only had one wave down following what looks like a double top.
Market can do what it wants though...

[TraderGirl]

Looks like tomorrow we will stay above the 1340 price range, looks like the beginning of a small rebound tomorrow....

[TraderGirl]

Seems like many E-wavers are calling this down move off 1400 level as a wave 4 and accordingly, a wave 5 should commence soon, last through the summer and take us to the election. This also fits the three peaks and domed house pattern, with point 23 (approx. 1576) coming up around last half of July 2012.

The central bankers continue to accommodate wall st., this will not change until after the election. The only real question is how low they allow the markets to drop before this wave 5 begins. My guess is this wave 4 ends once we dip to 1316-1333 range.
Then a blast off of 250 points to 1576 !!

Most E-wavers have a strong propensity to not follow rules and are generally wrong. But with intervention, and what has to be a War Room to keep the bull going, highly reliable patterns have been repeatedly broken.

I'm not in the "this is wave 4 camp" until the mkt proves it to be. My primary count believes that this is looking more like a complex correction wave 2, and a strong down wave 3 will follow and as most E-wavers missed the moves up they will miss the wave down. I'm not much positioned for it just yet, but I am looking for it. That's what traders do. Yes, BTFD has been workable because of the following article. But nature sometimes gets it's way! This market should never have seen SPX 1000 and our problems are now worse and there will be no recovery. Debt must be deleveraged....PERIOD!

Wondering why no one goes to jail and Wall Street is manipulated with approval by this criminal administration? Read on:


"Obama delivered heated rhetoric, but his actions signaled different
priorities. Had Obama wanted to strike real fear in the hearts of
bankers, he might have appointed former special prosecutor Patrick
Fitzgerald or some other fire-breather as his attorney general.
Instead, he chose Eric Holder, a former Clinton Justice official who,
after a career in government, joined the Washington office of
Covington & Burling, a top-tier law firm with an elite white-collar
defense unit. The move to Covington, and back to Justice, is an
example of Washington’s revolving-door ritual, which, for Holder, has
been lucrative–he pulled in $2.1 million as a Covington partner in
2008, and $2.5 million (including deferred compensation) when he left
the firm in 2009.

"Putting a Covington partner–he spent nearly a decade at the firm–in
charge of Justice may have sent a signal to the financial community,
whose marquee names are Covington clients. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Deutsche Bank are
among the institutions that pay for Covington’s legal advice, some of
it relating to matters before the Department of Justice. But Holder’s
was not the only face at Justice familiar to Covington clients. Lanny
Breuer, who had co-chaired the white-collar defense unit at Covington
with Holder, was chosen to head the criminal division at Obama’s
Justice. Two other Covington lawyers followed Holder into top
positions, and Holder’s principal deputy, James Cole, was recruited
from Bryan Cave LLP, another white-shoe firm with A-list finance
clients."

- Peter J. Boyer in his excellent recent article “Why Can’t Obama
Bring Wall Street to Justice?”

I agree, in my opinion price is involved in a large Zig Zag down with a potential target in the range 1293-1258

Below a few charts with my road map in different time frames:

I agree with you TWT. Looks like a zig zag down, not a very deep correction this summer and test the highs by 1Q 2013 before we potentially get a much larger correction.

[change.in.trend]

Attached is a chart showing a Natural Cycle time progression for the next 2 weeks.

Thanks
Anthony

[TWT]

EUR: I am expecting a short-term bottom. The rebound should not close the gap at 1.3089

[TraderJoe]

GM to all,
A Sea of RED, DAX & S&P to start the day.

[KeiZai]

Bounce from the green line? cutting there half position from Europe close

[KeiZai]

Bond and bund, I see a bit of space for little bit more down (then pullback? = indexes bounce)

EDIT: nice run...fear is back

[KeiZai]

Copper

[KeiZai]

Gold target reached

[KeiZai]

Damn channel again ?!?

[KeiZai]

hmmmm...nice sell off...something is cooking?