Cobra's Market View

Royal Flush wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Sector view

The attachment 129wkndsectorb.png is no longer available

Thanks for the sector view Al. I had no idea the tech sector was so weak. How can the market continue going up without the Tech sector?

The old saying "Follow the leader" AAPL is in bear market a drop >20% from its peak, I see no other way around it.

GOOG

Clark once we discussed about sugar and you mentioned one good vehicle, I forgot the name was it SUGA ? or LSUG or something else

TIA
BB I totally agree with you on apple first target should be 457.02

Royal Flush wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Sector view

129wkndsectorb.png

Thanks for the sector view Al. I had no idea the tech sector was so weak. How can the market continue going up without the Tech sector?

Good question royal, thanks
QQQ (aapl) should be pulling the mkt down already.
Have u got an SPX…QQQ…AAPL combined chart that can show us if/when aapl EVER DID NOT pull the mkt down?

In the meantime, i'll check with Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

BullBear52x wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Sector view

Thanks for the sector view Al. I had no idea the tech sector was so weak. How can the market continue going up without the Tech sector?

The old saying "Follow the leader" AAPL is in bear market a drop >20% from its peak, I see no other way around it.

Just a matter of time……and price……
I’m waiting for a PARADE through the streets… Camino Real in Palo Alto …. to celebrate the apple bringin’ the jobs home……that will be our top signal…
[yup, just kidding….. ]

KeiZai wrote:Clark once we discussed about sugar and you mentioned one good vehicle, I forgot the name was it SUGA ? or LSUG or something else
TIA

SGG is the oldest one
Newer ones are CANE AND SGAR
All are futures-based.
ALL ARE TOOOOO DANG THIN FOR TRADERS....at the moment.......
ps: I miss panda

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Sector view

Thanks for the sector view Al. I had no idea the tech sector was so weak. How can the market continue going up without the Tech sector?

The old saying "Follow the leader" AAPL is in bear market a drop >20% from its peak, I see no other way around it.

Just a matter of time……and price……
I’m waiting for a PARADE through the streets… Camino Real in Palo Alto …. to celebrate the apple bringin’ the jobs home……that will be our top signal…
[yup, just kidding….. ]

buddy what do u think about commodity currencies they are outperforming other risk assets very well atm...u have THE BEST charts about outperforming/underp.

NZD looks VERY bullish to me same with AUD...If I am/they are right we will see big upmove in commodity themes

Al_Dente wrote:

KeiZai wrote:Clark once we discussed about sugar and you mentioned one good vehicle, I forgot the name was it SUGA ? or LSUG or something else
TIA

SGG is the oldest one
Newer ones are CANE AND SGAR
All are futures-based.
ALL ARE TOOOOO DANG THIN FOR TRADERS....at the moment.......
ps: I miss panda

Thanks bud, panda will come back when it will be safe for her to be long

Stockcharts.com has a holiday special on now…. one+ month free, etc…… big deal

NOTE TO older subscribers: be sure to find your “coupon code” for possible discount BEFORE you renew or extend.

>home
>members
At the top of that members page click on the little yellow shield that shows how many years you’ve been a member, your coupon code will “pop up”,
get that coupon code and then proceed to checkout and use your coupon code at checkout. It's not much but every dime counts...
(I think u can only use your coupon code one time per year)

KeiZai wrote: buddy what do u think about commodity currencies they are outperforming other risk assets very well atm...u have THE BEST charts about outperforming/underp. NZD looks VERY bullish to me same with AUD...If I am/they are right we will see big upmove in commodity themes

Thanks homie… I haven’t gotten to currencies yet boss………..later………luv u… luv yr panda……..

Cobra wrote:2 hollow red bar forming a double bottom plus record low public opinion about YEN, I think Yen might be bottom here which may put pressure on the stock market the next week as carry trade may unwind once yen rise sharply.

FXY.png

YenPubOpinion.gif

Wouldn't Worry about the Yen Dead cat bounce too much... currency going to 0 on massive printing:

Last week the EUR had an abrupt reversal with a 5-wave decline that can be a trend changer.
With an impulsive sequence completed, a multi day bounce will most likely be followed by at least one more large down leg. If the “countertrend” bounce is strong enough to reach the 1.3000 area then price could be forming the right shoulder of a H&S pattern that could carry price back towards the November lows.
It remains to be seen how the equity bulls will digest a strong USD

VIX with Friday´s Inverted Hammer is suggesting a potential rebound next week but within a “speculative” Bearish Flag:

The NYSE Adv-Dec volume could be shaping a contracting pattern that would be aligned with a potential pullback sometime next week followed by thrust higher.

In the SPX chart (30 min) below we can see that the move from the November 16 low is clearly corrective but unfortunately the immediate direction is not clear since several different options are possible.

Since the down leg off the December 3 peak is corrective I rule out that the EWP off the November 16 low is over.

Even if the chart looks messy I highlight 3 potential counts depending upon if two support areas holds a potential pullback next Monday located at:


• The rising trend line that connects the November 28 low with the December 5 low
• The December low at 1398.23

The counts are explained in the chart.

Given the clear overlapping internal structure of the move off last Wednesday low I lean towards a pullback starting next Monday, but it is unpredictable how the market will behave in front of next Wednesday FOMC day.

The weekly stochastic of the Summation Index so far strengthens the equity bullish scenario with a buy signal issued during the second week of November from an extreme oversold reading. Usually the weekly stochastic follows a “pendulum pattern” from oversold to overbought, therefore if this sequence is fulfilled then the equity market should not reverse to the down side until the weekly stochastic enters the overbought zone and issue a new sell signal, something that might occur in a multi-week time frame.

Next week the main risk event is on Wednesday with the FOMC monetary policy announcement, in addition the market remains “hostage” of the US “Fiscal Cliff” political battle between Democrats and Republicans. The dead line is on Monday January 31, but if Mr Obama wants to leave for the Christmas holidays an agreement must be reached by Friday December 21, which also coincides with Quarterly OPEX.

Conclusion:

Regardless of a potential "shallow" pullback next week I maintain a bullish bias (until technical evidence shifts to the bears camp) since the pattern off the November lows is not complete yet.

rpccharts wrote:

Cobra wrote:2 hollow red bar forming a double bottom plus record low public opinion about YEN, I think Yen might be bottom here which may put pressure on the stock market the next week as carry trade may unwind once yen rise sharply.

The attachment FXY.png is no longer available

The attachment YenPubOpinion.gif is no longer available

Wouldn't Worry about the Yen Dead cat bounce too much... currency going to 0 on massive printing:

RP are you sure you are talking about yen?

imo the chart is dollar/yen what would mean the opposite
yen is in long term bull market what is actually problem for the bond market But shorting this pair in the future will be the biggest opportunity for our generation imo

DBV, dark cloud cover? this weekend is coolest, everyone is on a crab table, lets roll the dice dealer....