02/14/2013 Live Update

[gappy]

trin.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9hSgs0ITI0

[TWT]

$DOW: A marginal higher high could complete an ED

[BigChief]

SPY 5min, nice turn at resistance

[uempel]

Talking about Buffet/Heinz: He ain't a market timer, but he might be looking at a chart like this which suggests that long term mometum looks good. Even if there are hiccups along the way, the very long term outlook is extremely bullish

[uempel]

Does anyone know anything about the AAMRQ shares? I thought these shares would be worthless at the end of the bankruptcy...anyone know anything different?

Technical - all shorts are covering and that pushes the price higher

[jarbo456]

Buffett acquiring Heinz for $23 billion.

Shareholders to get $72.50 per share. Price up 20% today.

Buffett says it is their kind of company. Yeah, it goes pretty well with his standard Coke, hamburger and fries.

If Buffett were so smart it seems he would wait for a market downturn to buy a company.... why buy at the highs???

Buffett isn't a market timer. He also isn't a simple asset based investor. He's a franchise, business moat, and enterprise investor, whose purchases disregard perceived market cycles.

[Tutti]

If Buffett were so smart it seems he would wait for a market downturn to buy a company.... why buy at the highs???

Why did he buy BNSF? Every one thought he was still thinking in the 1880's. Now a few years later, a Spam load of oil is being pumped out of the ground in a remote location where a lone rail company just happens to have the monopoly...Hold up a pipeline through the area, for what ever reason, and his rail company, his rail car manufacturing company, his tractor trailer manufacturing company (tank trucks), and his trucking company MIGHT profit (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_as ... e_Hathaway) ...Might look and see what strategic intersection is in the future a year or two down the line. As an asside he still is litigating on paying his corp tax burden (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/2 ... 41099.html) from a liberal blog so you don't think it's just conservative sour grapes.

I am not talking about the "quality" of his decision...I am talking about the "timing" of his decision....why wait until we are at the top of the market...even though Heinz made out great what about the Berkshire shareholders?? In the long run it will probably pan out...but in the short run it's richly priced...the decision could have been made in Sept/Oct 2011 for example when negotiations could have been more fruitful for Berkshire shareholders....he IS working on behalf of Berkshire shareholders, not Heinz....

Just my worthless take: If Buffet believes we are entering a new secular bull, I'm sure his 10 and 20 year outlook puts the stock significantly higher. Besides, he's looking at Graham & Dodd measures for valuation, not the squiggly lines we all love.

[gappy]

nyad.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfwFpRnOeGg

[jarbo456]

Talking about Buffet/Heinz: He ain't a market timer, but he might be looking at a chart like this which suggests that long term mometum looks good. Even if there are hiccups along the way, the very long term outlook is extremely bullish

23.png

I love your charts buddy...with that being said, this momentum chart looks pretty muddy right now. It's definitely bullish biased, but the embedded MA signal within the momentum line indicates volatility in either direction in my opinion - no?

Would've loved to have seen much cleaner crosses like in mid '96 and in '01.

[JFR]

Talking about Buffet/Heinz: He ain't a market timer, but he might be looking at a chart like this which suggests that long term mometum looks good. Even if there are hiccups along the way, the very long term outlook is extremely bullish

23.png

Nice charts, uempel. Very creative. I haven't seen anything like them. As time goes on I will keep on studying them. I don't really speak their language yet. My instincts are pretty good. I fully expect to have many Ah Ha moments looking at them.

[licai5688]

抬头望见北斗星，
心中思念老蛇啊！

Cobra, 快快回来吧！

[TraderGirl]

If Buffett were so smart it seems he would wait for a market downturn to buy a company.... why buy at the highs???

Why did he buy BNSF? Every one thought he was still thinking in the 1880's. Now a few years later, a Spam load of oil is being pumped out of the ground in a remote location where a lone rail company just happens to have the monopoly...Hold up a pipeline through the area, for what ever reason, and his rail company, his rail car manufacturing company, his tractor trailer manufacturing company (tank trucks), and his trucking company MIGHT profit (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_as ... e_Hathaway) ...Might look and see what strategic intersection is in the future a year or two down the line. As an asside he still is litigating on paying his corp tax burden (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/2 ... 41099.html) from a liberal blog so you don't think it's just conservative sour grapes.

I am not talking about the "quality" of his decision...I am talking about the "timing" of his decision....why wait until we are at the top of the market...even though Heinz made out great what about the Berkshire shareholders?? In the long run it will probably pan out...but in the short run it's richly priced...the decision could have been made in Sept/Oct 2011 for example when negotiations could have been more fruitful for Berkshire shareholders....he IS working on behalf of Berkshire shareholders, not Heinz....

Just my worthless take: If Buffet believes we are entering a new secular bull, I'm sure his 10 and 20 year outlook puts the stock significantly higher. Besides, he's looking at Graham & Dodd measures for valuation, not the squiggly lines we all love.

Wow, can't believe that my comment sparked so many Buffett loving comments....

The value of his shares (for the benefit of his shareholders) still trade with the market...

[JFR]

Wow, can't believe that my comment sparked so many Buffett loving comments....

The value of his shares (for the benefit of his shareholders) still trade with the market...

I greatly respect Buffett. He has the courage of his convictions. And he certainly has vision. And he understands value.

But I agree with you, TraderGirl, that he would do even better (in the short term) if he always bought low.

And of course, sometimes, as MrBachNut has pointed out, he has to pay a premium to get the franchise.

I've looked at Heinz many times over the years. But it is always an expensive stock to buy. And it always has very high profits. A true blue chip.

[Tutti]

If Buffett were so smart it seems he would wait for a market downturn to buy a company.... why buy at the highs???

Why did he buy BNSF? Every one thought he was still thinking in the 1880's. Now a few years later, a Spam load of oil is being pumped out of the ground in a remote location where a lone rail company just happens to have the monopoly...Hold up a pipeline through the area, for what ever reason, and his rail company, his rail car manufacturing company, his tractor trailer manufacturing company (tank trucks), and his trucking company MIGHT profit (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_as ... e_Hathaway) ...Might look and see what strategic intersection is in the future a year or two down the line. As an asside he still is litigating on paying his corp tax burden (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/2 ... 41099.html) from a liberal blog so you don't think it's just conservative sour grapes.

I am not talking about the "quality" of his decision...I am talking about the "timing" of his decision....why wait until we are at the top of the market...even though Heinz made out great what about the Berkshire shareholders?? In the long run it will probably pan out...but in the short run it's richly priced...the decision could have been made in Sept/Oct 2011 for example when negotiations could have been more fruitful for Berkshire shareholders....he IS working on behalf of Berkshire shareholders, not Heinz....

Just my worthless take: If Buffet believes we are entering a new secular bull, I'm sure his 10 and 20 year outlook puts the stock significantly higher. Besides, he's looking at Graham & Dodd measures for valuation, not the squiggly lines we all love.

Wow, can't believe that my comment sparked so many Buffett loving comments....

The value of his shares (for the benefit of his shareholders) still trade with the market...

Hey TG, you are pointing out squiggly lines, WB looks at valuations. With a track record like his and Charlie Mungers, they also have close to 130 years of experience combined. I'm fairly certain they see things we may not or do not. When was the last time any of us performed a value metric to our trades?

Or, more simply, they could be wrong headed. With a timeline of "forever" though there is a long window to see if this INVESTMENT made sense. As a trade its probably ill timed.

[uempel]

Talking about Buffet/Heinz: He ain't a market timer, but he might be looking at a chart like this which suggests that long term mometum looks good. Even if there are hiccups along the way, the very long term outlook is extremely bullish

23.png

I love your charts buddy...with that being said, this momentum chart looks pretty muddy right now. It's definitely bullish biased, but the embedded MA signal within the momentum line indicates volatility in either direction in my opinion - no?

Would've loved to have seen much cleaner crosses like in mid '96 and in '01.

Jarbo, you are very, very demanding, the 96 and 01 scenarios were superb. Like marrying Gisele Bundchen or Laetitia Casta and discovering that they were caring, great cooks, loveable characters, no spendthrifts, superb mothers

Things like that don't happen very often

But you are right, monthly momentum looks a bit weaker than in 96 and 01, but the MA shows no sign of a reversal. I'd like to draw this chart in the 1970 - 1985 market environment but I don't have the data...

And if you remain a sceptic: a break of the MA at 28.25 is a sell

[uempel]

Talking about Buffet/Heinz: He ain't a market timer, but he might be looking at a chart like this which suggests that long term mometum looks good. Even if there are hiccups along the way, the very long term outlook is extremely bullish

23.png

Nice charts, uempel. Very creative. I haven't seen anything like them. As time goes on I will keep on studying them. I don't really speak their language yet. My instincts are pretty good. I fully expect to have many Ah Ha moments looking at them.

Thanks, but note that this is a very, very long term view...

[deeko]

Small caps powering higher on a low volume melt-up. New all-time high on R2K

[dloser]

Spx could follow r2k to new high soon

[gappy]

qid.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSGtXv2fO-I

[Harapa]

I'd like to draw this chart in the 1970 - 1985 market environment but I don't have the data...

PM me plot settings and time period between 1930-now you want to see.I will get you the plot.