Cobra's Market View

Out of Bounds wrote:Warren Buffett vs Jeff Bezos

Financials are still not looking bad, I am watching this ratio and if I am right then after small weakness they should outperform again to complete the 5wave cycle

bull flag/wave4 : http://i.imgur.com/t0GkUW6.png

TraderGirl wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Warren Buffett vs Jeff Bezos

Perhaps ending wave??

Btw, not saying it can't go higher in the future..just means a possible larger pullback..

TraderGirl,
I have no idea how Elliot waves work. What does ending wave mean?

Blue skies. How high can it go?

Last look at the money chart b4 I erase the descending triangle target on XIV, as they ran some stops and busted it
Also, looks to me like:
Euro/yen is nearing a double top on weak momentum
Carry trade aussie/yen is just plain weak, period
China started out on a strong gap-up this morn, now weakening
Germany breakout
etc

consolidation so bias is up. lunch time, will be back.

KeiZai wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Rare that I see a H&S on the RSI-14

YEP short-term looks ending diagonalish could/should end this wave then the retrace

Hi Panda
Ok then two new possiblities:
Measured move (blue) to 188 ish
Dome (pink) down to the base of the dome
SPY hates bears, so I better choose the blue route AFTER she back-tests the breakout, oy

Undervalued/Overvalued Opening longs again diverging with market

Undervalued ETF/Index puts 4.57 times calls

Overvalued ALL and Equity calls as much as 2.69 times puts

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Maybe the third time is the charm?

1:30pm. lunch hour should be over. MM should start.

Out of Bounds wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Warren Buffett vs Jeff Bezos

Perhaps ending wave??

Btw, not saying it can't go higher in the future..just means a possible larger pullback..

TraderGirl,
I have no idea how Elliot waves work. What does ending wave mean?

Ending wave counts can come in many different forms, so there is no one or two ways to show it, but it basically ends on a "c" or 5th wave of some kind...

TraderGirl wrote: Ending wave counts can come in many different forms, so there is no one or two ways to show it, but it basically ends on a "c" or 5th wave of some kind...

Thanks

Long term channel - linear scale - companion to trend slope calculation shown earlier - we are pressed up against it - please tell me a 5 year channel counts for something weekly bars (not bears ) - so can still take time to play out

That second time signal is coming up around 11am PST...MACD on 15 minute could be rolling over??

VIX 15m catching up... still not a lower low... but close.....

Exit at ES1866. even. no gain.
really boring Friday.

Now this is an amazing chart!

VIX daily

KeiZai wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

uempel wrote:Checking the very long term picture ...

The attachment SPX8.png is no longer available

Excellent short uempel. The bulls are trying hard to squeeze all bears who realize that 1863 is a measured move.

I see different MM is it 161.8 of ?something?

The attachment SPY.png is no longer available

100% extension of failed wedge reversal. Unfortunately I do not have perpetual ES futures to post but SPX gives you the idea but target is approximate.

Top calls are top calls, however....

SPY BB width is now at extremely wide levels. Under normal circumstances like we are in now (meaning: no crash to screw up the BBs in recent months), our current extreme BB width typically warns of an imminent trend reversal. I can go into this with more detail later with charts.

SPY BB width was this large was in July 2013, where SPY flattened out and then went into its August 2013 decline.

It was this large in last October which saw some weakness for about 2 weeks.

In November 2012 it got this large which marked the bottom of a correction and the beginning of a large rally.

Overall, it is VERY difficult for the market to push higher with the BB width this large after an extended rally. At a minimum, it needs to go flat for a couple weeks to work off its current condition. It could also enter a correction at any time.

My bias is now flat to down. Id be shocked if we get more rally.

VIX longer term

FYI.
VIX Option Maxpain 2014-3-018. X-axis point =7. Maxpain = 16