Cobra's Market View

The wave count of 5 waves up suggests at least another leg up....

Is this going to be a sell the news event today at 14:00est?

MrMiyagi wrote:Is this going to be a sell the news event today at 14:00est?

MrMiyagi, could you provide an update for the SPY p-bars? If you remember, you posted a P-bar update on 12/19 and all of them have been hit, except the lowest one pointing to $197.90, which will likely be the bottom of this correction, and (personally I believe) will be achieved before next Monday/Tuesday.

Thanks!

SPX

MrMiyagi wrote:Is this going to be a sell the news event today at 14:00est?

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Full moon yesterday?

100% mm. not sure, but I won't be surprised when Fed minute released SPY spike to there. to be bull all need are imagination.

Ed02 wrote:MrMiyagi, could you provide an update for the SPY p-bars? If you remember, you posted a P-bar update on 12/19 and all of them have been hit, except the lowest one pointing to $197.90, which will likely be the bottom of this correction, and (personally I believe) will be achieved before next Monday/Tuesday.

Ed, I don't keep track of these going that far back!!

I'm trying a different method of keeping track, it's on Excel format, download it and tell me what you think.

first move was down?

If we have actually bottomed, that would do serious damage to the daily SPY chart. The next MACD bullish cross would be guaranteed to not be #40 with another high chance of failure.

FOMC ...a non event? .. barely a move…

Algos having a hard time deciphering FOMC minutes?

Maybe they wait and surprise the shit out of us in 10 minutes???

MrMiyagi wrote:Algos having a hard time deciphering FOMC minutes?

Market will probably react to Fed member Evans speech.

Didn't realize that's at 6:30 EST. Could cause another classic zero volumne overnight futures ramp and a huge gap up open tomorrow. Also known as the Short Squeeze ignite r, if there are any shorts left to burn!

MrMiyagi wrote:

Ed02 wrote:MrMiyagi, could you provide an update for the SPY p-bars? If you remember, you posted a P-bar update on 12/19 and all of them have been hit, except the lowest one pointing to $197.90, which will likely be the bottom of this correction, and (personally I believe) will be achieved before next Monday/Tuesday.

Ed, I don't keep track of these going that far back!!

I'm trying a different method of keeping track, it's on Excel format, download it and tell me what you think.

Thanks a lot for sharing! This is helpful. Given my experiences tracking the p-bars you posted, some of them got hit definitely about 10-20 days later and so this spreadsheet format will help tracking these long terms ones easier. However, as a graphical guy, I do like seeing your graphical/plot format (which is more straightforward), and so once in a while a 5-day or 10-day update will be great.

Trades with cats wrote:Market will probably react to Fed member Evans speech.

futures.. then… 6:30pm ET

My bad I should have looked at the time, not just the day.

• *FED OFFICIALS SAW RATE RISE UNLIKELY BEFORE APRIL, MINUTES SHOW
• *MANY ON FOMC SAW DOWNSIDE RISKS TO U.S. FROM GLOBAL WEAKNESS
• *FOMC SAW OIL, DOLLAR MOVES TEMPORARILY PUSHING INFLATION LOWER
• FOMC SAW CHEAPER ENERGY COSTS AS NET POSITIVE FOR GDP, JOBS
• *FOMC SAW ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, SOLID JOB GAINS
• *MOST ON FOMC SAW NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF BROAD WAGE ACCELERATION
• *FOMC: DOWNSIDE INTL RISKS `NEARLY BALANCED' WITH UPSIDE RISKS
• *FOMC STRESSED TIMING OF FIRST RATE RISE TO DEPEND ON NEW DATA
• *FOMC SAW `PATIENT' GUIDANCE AS GIVING MORE POLICY FLEXIBILITY

SPX 60m.. doji-ville ..last hour move?

From the minutes:
“Most participants thought the reference to patience indicated that the Committee was unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings”
“Some participants regarded the revised language as risking an unwarranted concentration of market expectations for the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate target on a narrow range of dates around mid-2015, and as not adequately allowing for the possibility that economic conditions might evolve in a way that could call for either an earlier or a later liftoff date.”