Cobra's Market View

Fear is not with the bulls, bear flag with good fear. bulls are under dog.

Here is another angle, bulls need to regain above 2043ish.

The other day I forgot to mention the biggest factor in oil trading. The major houses have used foriegn subsidiaries to get around the Regulators and take over size positions in the past. Like when it ran up to $100 several years ago. Goldman analyists were telling the public it was going to $140. We found out later they had cornered the market through a Swiss firm. Just goes to show that Jesse Livermore is still current reading.

The 10 day average of the ISEE equity call - put ratio has hit multi year lows today.

During the last bear market it also hit these readings, but note that the S&P had already made a huge correction to get to those readings. We've hardly fallen at all now.

The rise in volatility could suggest wider swings, but bear in mind volatility can work in both directions. All it is saying is that the next move will be markedly wider than previous moves, either down OR up.

Cletus,

WSJ (Wall Street Journal) article today on increased volatility. One of their bloggers claiming it is all the electronic trading.
I should add that what you show fits right in with what Nassim Taleb said in his last book about systems that are artificially constrained (Plunge Protection Team).

Gold just made its first quick move today--up a bit, then cut back. EUR/USD made a break down at same time, still down. Seems conflicting these two moves....still waiting.

no new LOD from here, bears are not all that either.

OK, gold moving down, so once it gets below 1286.20 (almost there now) we are prob looking at dollar strength interpretation of FOMC, which puts SPY up & EUR/USD down.

Goldman now says $40

""(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday it expected prices for WTI crude oil CLc1 to trade close to $40 per barrel for most of the first half of 2015 in one of the lowest forecasts among major investment banks.""

Trades with cats wrote:The other day I forgot to mention the biggest factor in oil trading. The major houses have used foriegn subsidiaries to get around the Regulators and take over size positions in the past. Like when it ran up to $100 several years ago. Goldman analyists were telling the public it was going to $140. We found out later they had cornered the market through a Swiss firm. Just goes to show that Jesse Livermore is still current reading.

No rate increase until at least June. Assessment of economy upgraded. Fron WSJ live.

show time. the first reaction is true direction, so we're going up? should be a false counter move first though.

Cobra wrote:show time. the first reaction is true direction, so we're going up? should be a false counter move first though.

Maybe not..?

looks like simple chart pattern playing out, are we back to normal now

hmm, doesn't look like a counter move so far.

neckline getting closer..

long spy 202.31

DellGriffith wrote:long spy 202.31

Biggest Balls of the Month award to you.

mind the triangle into the close… SPX 3m