10/22/2015 Live Update

[Unique]

Swing account position update: Added another 10% shorts in Dec ITM strikes.

At 70% total swing short now from Monday's total 45%. Willing to go to 90% max as previously mentioned.

Planning to add more today if we hit that ES 2050-2054 daily 200SMA target

[Unique]

Sig Draghi is interfering with my analysis - I was not expecting a strong rally.

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BUT, we have rallied in to every ECB meeting this year and topped that day 5 times (and once on the Monday after) for an average pullback of 60pts....

It used to be the Fed's QE that drove these crazy rallies.... now it is the ECB -

we live in interesting times...


-D

Denali do you have spreadsheet you can share for that ECB statistics?

[DellGriffith]

Surprisingly, we should hit the lower bb on daily spy pretty soon. That's a big drop but its coming.

Boss, can you elaborate? is there a time signal?

On daily SPY, the moving average on the bb just crossed above the 50 dma today. It pretty much always hits the lower bb within a month after that event. Usually much earlier than a month. Very high probability.

And it makes sense because, well, there's a lot of technical damage on SPY that needs to be fixed. Still gotta fix the death cross among a lot of other things.

[brokebybernacke2]

Surprisingly, we should hit the lower bb on daily spy pretty soon. That's a big drop but its coming.

at the weekly/daily BB confluence and the 50w/200d confluence? A perfect storm? 2060 SPX wise.

if spy goes that high, think challenge at old high may come , pull back sure b4, think we are nearing the final line in the sand for bulls bears short term/pullback mild versue pullback bigger......bears got to pull trigger here for a good pullback or wait again at new high?

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Junior Buffett]

Surprisingly, we should hit the lower bb on daily spy pretty soon. That's a big drop but its coming.

Boss, can you elaborate? is there a time signal?

On daily SPY, the moving average on the bb just crossed above the 50 dma today. It pretty much always hits the lower bb within a month after that event. Usually much earlier than a month. Very high probability.

And it makes sense because, well, there's a lot of technical damage on SPY that needs to be fixed. Still gotta fix the death cross among a lot of other things.

Boss most of the time people don't hold their short till month. either they bail out or take profit much early in the game...month is too long..I like Unique's target date of Nov 6th!

[BullBear52x]

bears got two obstacle (red arrows) intraday.

BB, has you last buy coupon used?

Mid term buy still good.

[finman66]

Recap ... this morning QQQ p-bars residing at $109.14 from August 20 and August 24 were tagged.

Still remaining open are QQQ p-bars at $110.11 and above that at $110.80 and $110.82 ranging from August 20 to September 1

A SPY p-bar residing at $204.77 from August 21 looks to be in play this morning, with higher targets at $208.29 which seems improbable anytime soon.

SPY p-bar at $204.77 was just hit.

[MrMiyagi]

WE'RE NEVER
EVER
GOING
DOWN
AGAIN!!!!!
NEVER!!!!!
EVER!!!!!!!
EVVV-ARRRRRR!!!!!!

[Junior Buffett]

damn...greed is going out of control here...

[Unique]

ES: Only 12 handles from the 2054 immediate target.

Warning: Our hourly extreme overbought signal is approaching its maximum as price heads towards 2054.

[Unique]

Day trade: Half out here @ 2041 from 2034.5 buystop longs

[Junior Buffett]

ES: Only 12 handles from the 2054 immediate target.

Warning: Our hourly extreme overbought signal is approaching its maximum as price heads towards 2054.

Marketwatch put a headline on DOW and S & P going higher...usually that's the signal for trend change...

[DellGriffith]

Surprisingly, we should hit the lower bb on daily spy pretty soon. That's a big drop but its coming.

Boss, can you elaborate? is there a time signal?

On daily SPY, the moving average on the bb just crossed above the 50 dma today. It pretty much always hits the lower bb within a month after that event. Usually much earlier than a month. Very high probability.

And it makes sense because, well, there's a lot of technical damage on SPY that needs to be fixed. Still gotta fix the death cross among a lot of other things.

Boss most of the time people don't hold their short till month. either they bail out or take profit much early in the game...month is too long..I like Unique's target date of Nov 6th!

It usually doesn't take the whole month. There was a couple of times it went into a big decline and managed to barely get there in time, but even then the drop began well before month end.

[Unique]

Swing account position update: Added another 10% shorts in Dec ITM strikes.

At 70% total swing short now from Monday's total 45%. Willing to go to 90% max as previously mentioned.

Planning to add more today if we hit that ES 2050-2054 daily 200SMA target

FYI, hard stop is ES 2069 daily. Risking about 25-40 points for 50-100 points depending if we get Leg 2 down

[josephli]

so far Russell has been week in this whole rally.

[fehro]

SPY 200d stockcharts 204.34 .. other platforms 206.06

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:06 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/10 ... ay-update/

[Unique]

ECB STATISTICS FACT CHECKED CHART

6 OUT OF PREVIOUS 6 TIMES IN 2015 WERE BIG SUCCESS SHORTS. AVG WIN 51.5 SPX POINTS FOR NEXT DAY/5 SESSIONS (I CALCULATED VERY FAST, SO IT'S ROUGHLY)


Blue line = Monetary Policy announcement

Grey circle = where it dropped next session(s)

ECB DATES: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... ex.en.html

[Cobra]

could be an exhaustion here.