Cobra's Market View

30-Year
Bonds, Ben.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/30y_29.html

2 bars per day with pre-market

TrendTrade wrote:All I kinds of resistence here. Just went fully short this morning as long as we stay below 1303 here.

-38.2% retacement
-bear flag resistence
-secondary resistence from a trendline from the peak of the market
- yesterday had huge "selling on strength numbers on SPY" which I have found to be very foretelling
- yesterday had huge buying on strength numbers on SDS (inverse SPY)
- EUR/USD in a beautiful rising wedge which should break down now
-also C = 1.62 of A if we end at 1303
-TLT showing strength

Attached a chart... ultimately, must hold here NOW or more upside is ahead.

sc.png

TLT shows strength because due to dividend in TLT at the begining of the month.

Cletus: where R U?

I closed longs, not because the market is about to tank, but I have a bad gut feeling and I believe the pattern is bearish. Considering going short later this week.

DRL wrote:This is a GREAT post. Complete with chart and reasons for a trade. Thank you
Whether it makes a profitable trade is yet to be seen, but the rationale is clear.

TrendTrade wrote:All I kinds of resistence here. Just went fully short this morning as long as we stay below 1303 here.

-38.2% retacement
-bear flag resistence
-secondary resistence from a trendline from the peak of the market
- yesterday had huge "selling on strength numbers on SPY" which I have found to be very foretelling
- yesterday had huge buying on strength numbers on SDS (inverse SPY)
- EUR/USD in a beautiful rising wedge which should break down now
-also C = 1.62 of A if we end at 1303
-TLT showing strength

Attached a chart... ultimately, must hold here NOW or more upside is ahead.

The attachment sc.png is no longer available

Thanks,

Also, meant to say "buying on weakness on SDS". Here is the EUR/USD rising wedge... it still has room for one more touch to the upside... so that may take market higher. Still holding short.

Looks like everyone got his/her number down. very critical point here trades higher and stay above 130.55 is bullish however we slice it. this is high point to profit short or long and very clear stops and low risk for new position either side.

channel resistance, but i think bear's hope becomes less and less.

cougar wrote:

agnosia wrote:long crude from 94 .. expecting 95.36

Agnosia: I agree! I am long oil too for a quick swing. Also, long some selected “oil diggers”.
For example, WLL gave a buy signal for a longer swing!

cool. i took off half my contracts at 95.... target still 95.36... there is a TON of resistance above 95 so the ride there may be bumpy...

i am going to start shorting crude near 96 if it gets there.

cougar wrote:Cletus: where R U?

Someone rudely psychoanalyzed Cletus last week.

I appreciated Cletus' posting buy and sell comments on specific securities.

He took the risk of gaining real credibility or losing credibility.

Psychoanalyzing adds no real value to a financial MB.

FWIW, $VIX just went below 18, not even close to 16 to 17 , we still have room to run.

here's how i read the chart: volume surge with very big white bar, so could be an exhaustion bar here, that's the bear's last hope. but if we don't get the next bar or two red, well, I think bears are pretty much over.

Cobra wrote:channel resistance, but i think bear's hope becomes less and less.

agreed, here is my final take, brown dotted line swing down trend started, blue line confirmed it, and we are there as a back test.

the same theory on the 5 min chart, we should see a pullback of some kind here, otherwise no hope for bears.

Wow, I guess mad cow is back, did not even look back at the high of OR, could not agree more with you Cobra, imminent reversal here or bears are over if consolidation

Cobra, I don't agree that it's soon over for bears - I believe one of these three entry points should work...

15 minute with pre-market

SPX
Bear Flag.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_1248.html
Big Bear Flag.

uempel wrote:Cobra, I don't agree that it soon might be over for the bears - I believe one of these three entry points should work...

SPX3.png

we have different time frame, especially if it goes to red arrow on your chart, that's enough space for me to ride the wave up.

Dollar weakness supporting market today. UUP is falling below a 3 to 4 week up trend line and 50 DMA this morning. For all the bears (and I've been one too often) shorting into strength is the inverse of trying to catch a falling knife. Could be a dangerous game. I'd like to see a short term topping pattern (measured in a couple hours) before initiated a short term short with tight stops and minimal capital exposure. Right now I'm leaning more towards going long on the next pull back. Short term TICK and TRIN are still quite bullish (although I know TICK can be a contrary indicator). Weekly Stochastic is in the process of making a bull cross from oversold area, even though Monthly is starting to turn down.

ok target met on crude.... time for a vacation for me lol.