Cobra's Market View

pidge66 wrote:The market is the master of taunting both bulls and bears. In May and June, everyone expects bounces to sell into but hardly any chance. When finally the market bounces, it is bought relentlessly, trapping the bears in and the bulls out. Now everyone expect overbought correction for a few days to buy into, today we finally get one, but I suspect the market may just screw everyone again by selling relentlessly from here. Trying to think like a crook.

If you are a trader you are one..hahahahah!!!!!

BB52x..So far the Island Rev.is not disapointing the bears.

target reached, but could be more, at least to test the green line below?

SPX
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_3599.html

Going grazing for green shoots. Have a great weekend!

SPX at support on the daily... But this is no reason to go long.

99er wrote:SPX
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_3599.html

Going grazing for green shoots. Have a great weekend!

You too, 99. Thanks and see you Monday.
A

I tried to tell you guys about the negative divergence on the 60 min RSI yesterday and what it was saying , but what do I know.

Cobra wrote:target reached, but could be more, at least to test the green line below?

Impressive call!

Cobra wrote:

AK84 wrote:will cobra impulse system go into short mode today ?????

not a chance!

Cobra, do you not think that the market could correct a little for a week or so before resuming up and making new high? Your statistics on 7/5 shows that it'll take about 21 days and could go up about 3.4% which is not too far from yesterday close. If it'll reverse and go right back up next week then your pattern may just complete too soon. Another thing is QQQ was at double top yesterday and all other indexes have run straight up over the last 2 weeks, they're strong but tired, need to rest a little, any thought?

Good morning all,

As we know, technical analysis is both an art and a science. For what it is worth (this is my own metric) the Average of the last six 60 min. declines on SPX, (meaning it is both easy to see on the 60 min. Stochastic and has exceeded -0.65% (the arbitrary art part)) would put us at 1335 with a +/- standard deviation range of 1324 to 1346. On a day like today, I would expect the first test of the 15 min. 20MA to fail, with either a lower low to follow, or a higher low and short term (15 min.) reversal pattern setting up. Unless the last 15 day 7.7% run up in SPX was a bogus dead cat bounce and it's all down hill from here, we might expect the first violation of the 60 min. 20 MA that occurred today to at least set up another move above the 60 min. 20MA leading to a significant move higher , or a marginal new high (bull trap H&S) before rolling over. With earnings season just beginning, are expectations of second half growth too high? Has there been profit margin compression from increased commodity costs? Does it matter to day traders? Low volume correction so far, and on average the TICK is neutral to positive, even though the TRIN is > 2.65 (so far) and that can indicate a little selling panic. In the past TRIN > 2.65 (EOD) was a good indication of a short term bottom, but it has also occurred when tops were setting up, such as during April 2010. OK, enough BS. Happy trading!

If you look at the 1 min line chart it has that nice slope dn that could last for most of the day.

I think Cobra is buying the dip here...

I see 2 legged up here (5 min chart), there're chances the low was in today, but we'll have to wait and see.

STC wrote:

Cobra wrote:

AK84 wrote:will cobra impulse system go into short mode today ?????

not a chance!

Cobra, do you not think that the market could correct a little for a week or so before resuming up and making new high? Your statistics on 7/5 shows that it'll take about 21 days and could go up about 3.4% which is not too far from yesterday close. If it'll reverse and go right back up next week then your pattern may just complete too soon. Another thing is QQQ was at double top yesterday and all other indexes have run straight up over the last 2 weeks, they're strong but tired, need to rest a little, any thought?

Need more evidences to make my next call. For now purely from experiences, the pullback won't last a week, I'd be more than happy it could last till the end of the day.

Last update. I'm 100% cash now, neither long nor short, although both points of view have their rationale. Bye guys.

well guys this is the dip you've all been waiting for. i still haven't sold my longs.. 1400+ still my target. regardless of today's report, the s+p gets 40% of its profits oversees and as shitty as this sounds the fact that people are getting paid more to do less and corp's are staying slim is good for profits. welcome to america. have a good trading day guys, i'm holding firm.

uempel wrote:Last update. I'm 100% cash now, neither long nor short, although both points of view have their rationale. Bye guys.

SPX9.png

goodbye, and have a nice weekend :mrgreen:

Time to go and work out. Be back later.

Greetings all!

Today's definition of insanity: open some longs in the year 2011 at 1335. Today - I qualify!

Thanks to Cobra and the many contributors here. Uempel - great charts; you got me playing with rhomboids a bit, but I'm still learning.

Really solid, in-depth analysis this week! As a contrarian, I'll be quick to point out that this only increases the odds that it's wrong.

HOWEVER - I initiated a few longs today that I wouldn't have opened if I hadn't seen Cobra's perspective this week, so GO COBRA, hope you're right!!

My 2 cents: good chance 1334 may be the low today. We may have some positive surprises next week from companies with international markets. 1380 ST seems feasible to me, but I don't see us staying long or getting past that benchmark. I'm 1/4 cash, 1/4 long, and 1/2 short. My long window is <2 weeks and my stops are pretty tight; my short window is Oct 22.

IMO - SHORT TERM - the NFP trend of "open low, close higher" combined with today's adequate correction for the recent strong move up <---these factors outweight the lower low after OR today. Other than reality, I don't see any immediate reason the market cannot test a new high ST. I have a high respect for reality and i think it will eventually prevail, but in the present market, it only matters at tops & in down trends.

Best of trades to all!!

next bar is key, bears need a L2 to short, no idea if it's a good idea though.