Cobra's Market View

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

HappyFriday wrote:Cheer LONGS !

99er wrote:Honey...
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_9586.html

Call Tabby!

agnosia wrote:

barbaragull wrote:

agnosia wrote:

Cobra wrote:officially testing MA200 now.

i am shorting this first touch. /es 1272

i am praying that you got it right and make big money (i am so deeply under water with heavy short )

my stop is HOD ,. looking good so far. i'm looking at covering near 1260

Dow Trader wrote:The reason for my short position was based on weekly chart that is still in sell and price trading at major resistance in the first test and first touch . It is basic and simple ( old school )

Apple wrote:Holy Cow. RIG up $2. They must have found oil in Rhode Island

jarbo456 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:MS + 11%

haha. how awesome is that? you basically screw yourself by exposing your naked butt to a crumbling EU economy, and then not only did you get bailed out with a US led TARP program, two years later, you get bailed out AGAIN with an EU led TARP which negates your insurance obligations.it's good to be one of the big guys. when your trade fails, have the government(s) change the rules of the game.

Cobra wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

nowadays, you should trade against fundamentals I guess. The most unbelievable trade usually the most right one.

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

standard_and_poor wrote:huge gap opens like today are typical trademarks of a wave 3 in full bloom.

pablorynx wrote:
I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.