Cobra's Market View

michelangelo wrote:Anyone here trade silver and have an opinion on it? It's almost 70% of its 52 week high.

I covered my long silver and gold position this morning from yesterday. Short term could see grind up.. intermediary term i see flat to lower.
these are on my watchlist for a much bigger long position when the fed goes QE3. gold has fallen last month via the dollar trade. when the fed prints, u wanna be buying gold and silver. when europe prints, do not wanna long gold and silver. lower euro not necessarily bad for europe since major export revenues to china. we will see fed intervene soon as they have no tolerance for strong dollar. that is when u wanna go long big silver.

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_8090.html

Bearish Butterfly.

I was thinking long-term with silver, as well. Maybe some here can do a chart?

Al_Dente wrote:1 min internals
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

PAGING L_T
Not many other folks on board watch metals “fundamentals”
FCX seems especially sensitive to fundamentals
Schwab won’t give me research on ETFs so I watch SLW as an imperfect proxy to get silver news, but don’t always have time to go there.
Still can’t find trusted Gold fundamentals site, do u have a favorite gold site?

PLEASE post when u see stuff like that… I AM WATCHING and I appreciate

I don't watch metals really I just follow FCX because I have a position in it. However I start to obsess over it when I wonder if it will take a dive like it did in late 2008. I LIKE to think I can avoid that (and also pick up shares when the inevitable rise comes again) but we all know how that goes for most of us.

Gratuitous shot of Grasberg mine in Indonesia:

One more add on the shorts...now I have a hard stop. I'll bet they can see it.

Cobra: does high after 1030am rule apply only triple/quadruple witching?

HappyFriday wrote:Why not even one analyst downgrades RIMM to sell rating ? They are just lower down the target price.
Does it mean something ??

With earnings of like $1.15 a share for the quarter = $4.60 per year, RIMM has like a 3x multiple. We must not forget --- RIMM makes money. Yes, declining phone sales, but still profitable. Might be a value trap but, I took a shot here.

Cobra Da: Spx daily chart STO bottomed, golden cross formed, and mad marginal higher low for 3 days.
Do you think the bottom was in?

We are back testing on 5 dma now on most if not all indexes.

I added to my short swing trade as well. Looks stretched. Anybody have a max pain chart? Thought I saw 124 earlier this week

If we make a higher high on $SPX before falling below 1,227.43 I'm out of my shorts and in the BULL camp.

Nomorework wrote:I added to my short swing trade as well. Looks stretched. Anybody have a max pain chart? Thought I saw 124 earlier this week

max pain at 123 now.

http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

What are people's thoughts on the VIX? My chart has it obviously closer to bottoming than topping, however Cobra would call that "front running" which I agree could be dangerous here.

Rich Arab are you still having drinks at Trader VIX or has the lowered cover charge < 40 allowed too many seedy characters in?

Funny note: I was at the beer/liquor store a couple of weeks ago and saw Trader Vic's branded rum and thought of this board. Does that mean I spend too much time here?

Cheers! Here's to hoping we see it today...

michelangelo wrote:I was thinking long-term with silver, as well. Maybe some here can do a chart?

Here is my SLV 130 min, which I posted many times.
The short trade is DONE!

The long trade is in the gap… without an “impulsive allure”…

DX inverted head and shoulders?

jaijailyc wrote:

Petsamo wrote:

jaijailyc wrote:am I the only bull here? (at least for this month)

I'm a bull, but I want up & down action. So far, up is the only direction

If SPY would close above 123.35 today (> 20 EMA, > 50 dma), I would sell my 2 ultrashort ETF's, holding a few stocks as long holdings

SSO here, need to break out, under here is still under sell zone.

ES Globex H12: the s/t count that I am following

Hi Cobra, i signed up the first day but posting for the first time

have you considered a live chat format?

thanks for your analysis.