Cobra's Market View

cobra what is the time frame for measure move?

usctrojan99 wrote:Cobra or anyone else,
I don't play much with VIX or VXX, but any reason they are flat/ down, respectively, with selling off a bit? Looks like complacency is still in. Would like to get your thoughts. TIA

Usually VIX leads, so it might mean people are buying this dip, we'll see reversal up eventually.

shumushu wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:From Kimble charting http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... ortfolios/

Once Gold and Silver break out of this channel, I think it could be very bullish, the question is when will this happen?? Could happen after the summer correction, maybe around Sept/Oct would be a good time to buy?? into 1st quarter of 2013....

Put alerts at the boundaries and call it a day.

I guess if the boundary was a straight horizontal line that would be easy, but it's a downward trending line....

L_T wrote:I follow it because I want to pick it up at a good price for my long term account. I assume you know their business.

Price is breaking down again today (not as bad as 10 sessions ago but definitely not bullish) so it may be premature to go long here. Just my 2 cents.

Petsamo wrote:Anyone familiar with JOY?
I'd like to start nibbling.

They're in the coal sector, which is getting slammed.

jdiesel77 wrote:cobra what is the time frame for measure move?

Don't know, could be tomorrow?

Cobra wrote:

usctrojan99 wrote:Cobra or anyone else,
I don't play much with VIX or VXX, but any reason they are flat/ down, respectively, with selling off a bit? Looks like complacency is still in. Would like to get your thoughts. TIA

Usually VIX leads, so it might mean people are buying this dip, we'll see reversal up eventually.

I would think so which is why I went and bought some SPY calls. But, Vxx is sitting below lower bollinger, and was a little confused by it's activity. TIA!

Ya as of this second JOY, BTU, and ANR are the 3 worst performers in the S&P 500 all down around 5%.

Petsamo wrote:

L_T wrote:I follow it because I want to pick it up at a good price for my long term account. I assume you know their business.

Price is breaking down again today (not as bad as 10 sessions ago but definitely not bullish) so it may be premature to go long here. Just my 2 cents.

Petsamo wrote:Anyone familiar with JOY?
I'd like to start nibbling.

They're in the coal sector, which is getting slammed.

SC Model Update:
Momentum component of my Small Cap model turned up yesterday triggering a buy EOD today. The Lending_Environment component is likely to turn up in next few days. For details of this model check weekend watering forum of the past few weeks.

L_T wrote:Ya as of this second JOY, BTU, and ANR are the 3 worst performers in the S&P 500 all down around 5%.

Petsamo wrote:

L_T wrote:I follow it because I want to pick it up at a good price for my long term account. I assume you know their business.

Price is breaking down again today (not as bad as 10 sessions ago but definitely not bullish) so it may be premature to go long here. Just my 2 cents.

Petsamo wrote:Anyone familiar with JOY?
I'd like to start nibbling.

They're in the coal sector, which is getting slammed.

If we get a correction in the next week or two, you may want to wait till about April 4/5th to buy stocks...FWIW

"Consumer Reports to publish results of Ipad heat probe later today". From CNBC

Harapa wrote:SC Model Update:
Momentum component of my Small Cap model turned up yesterday triggering a buy EOD today. The Lending_Environment component is likely to turn up in next few days. For details of this model check weekend watering forum of the past few weeks.

looking at 82 now

TraderGirl wrote:

L_T wrote:Ya as of this second JOY, BTU, and ANR are the 3 worst performers in the S&P 500 all down around 5%.

Petsamo wrote:

L_T wrote:I follow it because I want to pick it up at a good price for my long term account. I assume you know their business.

Price is breaking down again today (not as bad as 10 sessions ago but definitely not bullish) so it may be premature to go long here. Just my 2 cents.

Petsamo wrote:Anyone familiar with JOY?
I'd like to start nibbling.

They're in the coal sector, which is getting slammed.

If we get a correction in the next week or two, you may want to wait till about April 4/5th to buy stocks...FWIW

Your forecast sounds good, thank you!

PRI wrote:"Consumer Reports to publish results of Ipad heat probe later today". From CNBC

Since you seem to be stuck on this today, a little reality might be in order....

"As Alex Dedalus points out on Twitter, to say this is a crap headline is give crap headlines a bad name. Celsius and Fahrenheit are relative temperature scales, not absolute, so you can’t do percentage-based comparisons. Think about it: 33.6 / 28.3 gives you an “18.7 percent” increase, but if you do the math with the same temperatures in Fahrenheit, you get 92.5 / 82.9 = “11.6 percent” increase. If you really want to do a percentage based comparison, you need to convert to an absolute temperature scale like Kelvin, which shows you that it’s actually a 1.8 percent increase in temperature. This is middle school science." (Daring Fireball)

Also, in case you're interested "overheating" means becoming too hot. While the new iPad runs warmer than than the previous model (mostly likely due to the graphics processing), it is by no means "overheating", which would suggest a defect.

Hard, cold facts and stats is the reason I come to this board and subscribe to Cobra's reports.

BullBear52x wrote:

Harapa wrote:SC Model Update:
Momentum component of my Small Cap model turned up yesterday triggering a buy EOD today. The Lending_Environment component is likely to turn up in next few days. For details of this model check weekend watering forum of the past few weeks.

looking at 82 now

May be that will be a good entry point. Since, when Lending_Enviorenment turns up this model is essentially B&H, I will take positions in steps over few days. Last two times in this mode TNA returned 215% and 117% . No shorts are permitted in this mode except for intraday scalping.

ok, we have another measured move target, so we have more clear plan now.

Harapa wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Harapa wrote:SC Model Update:
Momentum component of my Small Cap model turned up yesterday triggering a buy EOD today. The Lending_Environment component is likely to turn up in next few days. For details of this model check weekend watering forum of the past few weeks.

looking at 82 now

May be that will be a good entry point. Since, when Lending_Enviorenment turns up this model is essentially B&H, I will take positions in steps over few days. Last two times in this mode TNA returned 215% and 117% . No shorts are permitted in this mode except for intraday scalping.

base on my swing model, IWM is a sell.it's early stage but not a buy see chart here. I'll up date on IWM/TNA after market today at my blog some more.

one more push to new HOD will give us intraday sell, the buy this morning will end there

I am talking SPY here.

Silver stats:

Big range day is on March 22 or 23
Big reversal day on March 27 to 29th

TraderGirl wrote:Silver stats:

Big range day is on March 22 or 23
Big reversal day on March 27 to 29th

Waterbaby left me a message of gann 3/21 what do you think?

Xian wrote:

PRI wrote:"Consumer Reports to publish results of Ipad heat probe later today". From CNBC

Since you seem to be stuck on this today, a little reality might be in order....

"As Alex Dedalus points out on Twitter, to say this is a crap headline is give crap headlines a bad name. Celsius and Fahrenheit are relative temperature scales, not absolute, so you can’t do percentage-based comparisons. Think about it: 33.6 / 28.3 gives you an “18.7 percent” increase, but if you do the math with the same temperatures in Fahrenheit, you get 92.5 / 82.9 = “11.6 percent” increase. If you really want to do a percentage based comparison, you need to convert to an absolute temperature scale like Kelvin, which shows you that it’s actually a 1.8 percent increase in temperature. This is middle school science." (Daring Fireball)

Also, in case you're interested "overheating" means becoming too hot. While the new iPad runs warmer than than the previous model (mostly likely due to the graphics processing), it is by no means "overheating", which would suggest a defect.

Hard, cold facts and stats is the reason I come to this board and subscribe to Cobra's reports.

My bad, I didn't realize how insignificant the news was. I really appreciate that you took the time to define overheating for me as I was not taught that at Wharton. One thing that I have learned during my 15 plus years as an options trader (CBOE floor) is that news like this tends to move markets. I read this forum occasionally and comment rarely. This news is definitely worth passing along, but I won't waste any more of my time.