04/04/2011 Live Update

[johnnywa]

No bounce yet ,not good 4-3 a high 1419 ? Next date 4-13 could be low

Hopefully low today

[traderessentials]

Cobra, Are you expecting a test of the highs starting with this rebound or is this just a bear flag before another leg down? thank you

[gappy]

Posted the lower chart a week or two ago... There was a turn date for Silver/Dollar around April 4/5th, thought it might be a trough for silver and crest for dollar. Now I am wondering if this lasts into next week...??? Thought we would see a trough in the market by tomorrow....

Waiting for Globex open, looking for further support loss. Thank you to this board's posters for schooling me from a loser to being able to hold my own. Thank you Maestro Cobra for this classy, supportive forum. Three year trader now, patiently learning. GLTA ps, I miss 99er too.

[Mr. BachNut]

My position has been market neutral since my last short trade. I remain sidelined as I continue to have conflicting indicators. The McClellan based signals I like have been bearish while the liquidity signals have been bullish. It doesn't look like that will change today. So, I guess it suggests chop.
Perhaps one noteworthy thing is my intraday McClellan Oscillator has been venturing into the oversold zone at the lows today. If there is a panic it can certainly get deep into oversold, but perhaps some consolidation or a bounce is in the cards.

[noob]

Cobra, it seems that we haven't even had the first rebound today. Shall we still expect one? Thanks

[Cobra]

Cobra, it seems that we haven't even had the first rebound today. Shall we still expect one? Thanks

we're current on the rebound. if instead of a rebound, it's a consolidation here then it's good for bears.

[uempel]

I'm looking at today's low - I expect it to hold, but I might be overly bullish.

[TraderGirl]

spx..??

[Cobra]

AAPL update, see for your self: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /260183775;

[TraderGirl]

xiv testing lower boundary...

[noob]

Cobra, it seems that we haven't even had the first rebound today. Shall we still expect one? Thanks

we're current on the rebound. if instead of a rebound, it's a consolidation here then it's good for bears.

Seems to be a triangle here. And also if aapl up from here, bring up the market?

[fehro]

bounce here?... or breakdown to lower trendlines?

[Cobra]

could be a small ascending triangle here, the rebound is on the way.

[Petsamo]

I guess a bear flag is out of the question

[Al_Dente]

bots are buying this

[silver.eagle]

Cobra -

Looking through the public chartlist 4.9.1 (TSX trading signals) looks like a potential large scale downturn in the works. That indicator meant only to work on the 1st of the month or if it turns red post-1st day (in which case it did today) do you take the signal?

[stucap]

I guess a bear flag is out of the question

HAHAHAHA! Yeah, no chance.

[BullBear52x]

where are we? The meaningful rebound is at mark 7

[taggard]

My position has been market neutral since my last short trade. I remain sidelined as I continue to have conflicting indicators. The McClellan based signals I like have been bearish while the liquidity signals have been bullish. It doesn't look like that will change today. So, I guess it suggests chop.

Perhaps one noteworthy thing is my intraday McClellan Oscillator has been venturing into the oversold zone at the lows today. If there is a panic it can certainly get deep into oversold, but perhaps some consolidation or a bounce is in the cards.

I like your chop--but would venture to guess (full disclaimer--you have heard this before from me--but sooner or later it's a done deal) that qqq as of last week up 13 weeks in a row this is a first in the history of the etf. inevitably one way or another one always winds up back around the 10 week ema sooner or later. Your "chop" suggests this could be more of a process than a cratering. at this point i am wondering about earnings (time frame) as a way of working all this out.

Generally on a first dip on the weekly qqq after and extended move up--you get another buy. and it's hard to avoid (given we are over the 78% fib of the whole move down from 2000 on spx) the idea that spx will make some sort of attempt for the last major high. So maybe we are going to see "yo. .it only pulled back and can't fall so you gotta get long" one more time.

what will be interesting to watch is if the market takes so-so earnings in a positive light--since everyone is focused on liquidity only. also since aapl and qqq and semis in general (econ canary in the coal mine) have been leading--if this changes or at least mitigates somewhat around (so starting just before or just after earnings) and spx take the lead--if that were the case i would start to wonder about a major top on the indexes.

i always enjoy your McClellan Oscillator stuff--i use it too--but it has been a real pain lately. i use the 10 day ma on nysi to figure out roughly the most likely future direction of McClellan but the math i have is not real useful (best guess is early next week is not great but clueless after that) The other tool i use is a $NYSI (stockcharts version) with the rsi at stock settings--this too is suggesting oversold in an even larger context than the McClellan guy. This thing as you know is very slow--so again we could be down to 1-2 weeks and then a serious attempt up.

Bottom line? choppy sounds good--i would really like to see qqq try for the 10 week ema and then go up for one last run such that spx gets another shot at 1500-1600. Bonus consideration--$nysi (nyse summation index using stockcharts data) has declined decently from a very high point--it's speculative--but the next move up (assuming we get one) could very easily print a lower high if so that might be very interesting (time frame? may-end july??)

appreciate your posts sense of humor good luck with your trades

[Cobra]

target. I don't believe this target yet.