Cobra's Market View

ocassional observer wrote:

Petsamo wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:

Petsamo wrote:VALE has magnificent fundamentals but it continues to get crucified.

you're very wrong about the fundamentals. have you seen a chart of iron ore prices lately?

Iron ore prices alone don't determine the health of a company. I wouldn't say I'm very wrong.

health alone rarely drives a stock's price. the most healthy stocks in the market still experienced 50%+ declines during the last bear market, while their solvency was never in doubt. iron ore prices reflect the profitability of mining companies such as vale. now, vale is also expanding its production in the face of a decline in demand and inventory buildup. this will not end well, and its stock price is just starting to reflect that. think what vale's value will be when ore prices hit 30$, and don't think it's a far fetched number. the anomaly is the last 10 years, not the 20 that preceded it.

Al_Dente wrote:PAGE HARAPA
Boss: I’m not sure I agree that everything has to agree
eg SPY and internals stuff can say one thing, then QQQ (AAPL) and/or IWM can do whatever they please, like spike either way if they feel like it; diverge……..
examp TNA right now this minute

Harapa wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:PAGE HARAPA
Boss: I’m not sure I agree that everything has to agree
eg SPY and internals stuff can say one thing, then QQQ (AAPL) and/or IWM can do whatever they please, like spike either way if they feel like it; diverge……..
examp TNA right now this minute

Not all but VIX/RVX/VXN/VXO plus price ribbon for a buy and 3 out of 4 or price ribbon for a sell. Yes, the last sell has been a dud if you picked inverse SPY and in a loss if inverted IWM, but don't forget the bigger picture of >30% cumulative gains since Feb 2012 (also this is what makes it winner 68% of the time). I don't expect this system to pick every twist and turn but as long as I make money with it, I am happy

Al_Dente wrote:TNA
That tells me that bears in small caps (=higher risk) are skittish
They covered faster and deeper than the spy bears
………maybe just blabla

Petsamo wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:

Petsamo wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:

Petsamo wrote:VALE has magnificent fundamentals but it continues to get crucified.

you're very wrong about the fundamentals. have you seen a chart of iron ore prices lately?

Iron ore prices alone don't determine the health of a company. I wouldn't say I'm very wrong.

health alone rarely drives a stock's price. the most healthy stocks in the market still experienced 50%+ declines during the last bear market, while their solvency was never in doubt. iron ore prices reflect the profitability of mining companies such as vale. now, vale is also expanding its production in the face of a decline in demand and inventory buildup. this will not end well, and its stock price is just starting to reflect that. think what vale's value will be when ore prices hit 30$, and don't think it's a far fetched number. the anomaly is the last 10 years, not the 20 that preceded it.

Extremely low PE ratio, high gross and net margins, high revenue & income per employee, etc etc mean nothing? I'm disappointed marketwatch.com doesn't give dividend info.

jdow wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:TNA
That tells me that bears in small caps (=higher risk) are skittish
They covered faster and deeper than the spy bears
………maybe just blabla

Yes they are - IWM back to outperforming all others. Consolidation here ABOVE $81.50 is good for higher prices. I have trailing stop loss and hoping for retest of $82.50 by Friday

ocassional observer wrote:the market is a discounting machine (when no central banks driving it, that is). all the things you mentioned are rear view mirror of when ore prices were 30-40$ higher. you need to understand what the future holds for iron miners, and to do that you must understand the dynamics in china and emerging markets. does china looks like it is going to keep or improve the demand for iron it had?