11/10/2012 Weekend Update

[TWT]

NDX: Despite the oversized selloff, the internal structure of the move off the September 21 high to date, maintains a corrective 7-wave down leg hence the odds that price has not established a major top are large.

So far price could be unfolding a Double Zig Zag

[Al_Dente]

AL DENTE,
Your $ONE:$CPCI turned negative, right?

yes but the last (October 1-ish) signal was blue/fail
I don’t exactly trust that one, as options traders have been true honey badgers lately
ps: GREAT charts this wknd boss, thx

here’s nymo and namo at quad/triple bottom
and Bulkowski on the triple bottom: http://thepatternsite.com/tb.html

[uempel]

Al_Dente, as to AAPL: I'm not sure if EW is the right approach. A few months ago I started to check out similar patterns from 2000. This monthly overview is not extremely precise, but it does show that the first bounce occurs near Fib 23.6%. Why not go back to 2000 and look at these old bounces more closely, on a daily chart? I guess these moves are going to be copied by AAPL. Which one I like best? - I guess it's MSFT

[Al_Dente]

For the bear camp.

DUDE I LIKE THAT ONE A LOT
CAN U GIVE ME THE LINK IN COBRA’S evening room 4 subscribers?
THANKS

[KeiZai]

Housing looks good, few months ago I mentioned possible iH&S pattern, target have not been reach yet

PHLX-11.png

IYR is do or die here, have a good one.

Uf on monthly not looking very good

IRY11.png

U too BB, you just came from party? up at 5am

lots of drinks

big like

[KeiZai]

Could someone please post an EW count on aapl...thanks

Haha doc u are obssesed with apple
I don´t have count on it (can try to make on) but I wouldn´t touch i-stuff now for LT maybe later, what u posted about apple I am watching exactly same thing (he had to steal it from me )
I see nazi toppish as well...

panda: thanks 4 all yr great charts this wknd

u r right I am obsessed with aapl
the only thing I might bet on is a short put @ 510-520
And I’m not doing that…I’m flat AAPL as of friday
AAPL scares me here

The attachment scared.png is no longer available

PS: thanks daytradingES, clarkw and bb52x for gold updates

dtes: I especially liked your meltdown video, and I think it’s actually a good thing (for bears) that there aren’t more grizzly bears on board…yet…

For late voters: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

doc I have one question for you, do u have XLI chart with your classic stockcharts settings? Would really appreciate if yes, if no - no prob!

Here is what I am watching (p.s : ignore the text )

[ClarkW]

UNIQUE way of looking at correlation of Japanese net foreign investments vs. the market from http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com

Here's the text:


Japanese individuals have amassed one of the largest levels of private household wealth in any country around the world. But with local interest rates so low for so long, Japanese money tends to search for investments abroad and retail investment always has the same mentality everywhere - that is why we call them dumb money. The chart above shows that when Japanese households become net buyers of foreign equities, price usually tends to sell off rather sharply. On the other hand, when Japanese households become net sellers of foreign equities, the opposite happens as the price usually tends to rally. To explain this contrarian indicator better, consider this chart linking those important dates to the price of the S&P 500. We can see that Japanese retail money was euphorically buying foreign equities coming into August and September. Most likely, Draghi & Bernanke's one-two punch sucked in the rest of the retail crowd from there onwards, so the chances are high regarding a major top in stock prices, all while fundamental conditions were deteriorating.

[xfradnex]

Case for a dead cat bounce of some type at the bottom of the SPY channel in Blue. The Purple Line is for Daily highs and yellow for lows. If we go below bottom channel, assume we are in panic mode. Current support is 137.25: slope from last two lows; this is also supported by line created from lows on 7-12-12 and 7-24-12 (not a strong support); also supported by alot of revisits starting at 137.20 and below.

[Al_Dente]

Haha ...

do u have XLI chart with your classic stockcharts settings

Not sure which “classic” u mean boss
I use both of these “defaults” for daily

Here is XLI based on an old Linda Raschke setting

Here is XLI based on my “equivolume” setting, which builds volume inside each price bar...(loaded with other crap)
XLI needs a bounce, based on the fact that its downtrend last week is unsustainably steep, also has a tiny bit of pos diverg
[edit: but the bounce could be horizontal; it doesn't have to be vertical]

[if this is not what u wanted, please ask me again]

[KeiZai]

Haha ...

do u have XLI chart with your classic stockcharts settings

Not sure which “classic” u mean boss
I use both of these “defaults” for daily

Here is XLI based on an old Linda Raschke setting

1111xlilinda.png

Here is XLI based on my “equivolume” setting, which builds volume inside each price bar...(loaded with other crap)
XLI needs a bounce, based on the fact that its downtrend last week is unsustainably steep, also has a tiny bit of pos diverg
[edit: but the bounce could be horizontal; it doesn't have to be vertical]

[if this is not what u wanted, please ask me again]

1111xliequi.png

Good stuff homie! red arrow means taht selling pressure is picking up, right? This is what I need oh and the bounce

thx buddy and have a good one : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqIlnF2z ... re=related

[PanamaJack]

Does anyone have the build components from stockcharts for this (Mountian) chart -- Thanks in advance

[ClarkW]

Chart from Bespoke showing a bounce is due short-term

The S&P 500's second consecutive 1%+ decline has put the index 2.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which is well into extreme oversold territory. As of the close, 29% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 50-days. At the lows this summer, this reading got into the single digits.

[uempel]

Does anyong have the build components from stockcharts for this (Mountian) chart -- Thanks in advane

Nice chart - but why don't you build it yourself? Are there too many kids out there screaming for your attention

[Cobra]

UNIQUE way of looking at correlation of Japanese net foreign investments vs. the market from http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com

Here's the text:


Japanese individuals have amassed one of the largest levels of private household wealth in any country around the world. But with local interest rates so low for so long, Japanese money tends to search for investments abroad and retail investment always has the same mentality everywhere - that is why we call them dumb money. The chart above shows that when Japanese households become net buyers of foreign equities, price usually tends to sell off rather sharply. On the other hand, when Japanese households become net sellers of foreign equities, the opposite happens as the price usually tends to rally. To explain this contrarian indicator better, consider this chart linking those important dates to the price of the S&P 500. We can see that Japanese retail money was euphorically buying foreign equities coming into August and September. Most likely, Draghi & Bernanke's one-two punch sucked in the rest of the retail crowd from there onwards, so the chances are high regarding a major top in stock prices, all while fundamental conditions were deteriorating.

Thanks. I like this one!

[uempel]

This is BPNYA - Bullish pecentage of all NYSE issues. The weekly chart strongly suggests that there is more downside for the market

[Cobra]

Al_Dente, as to AAPL: I'm not sure if EW is the right approach. A few months ago I started to check out similar patterns from 2000. This monthly overview is not extremely precise, but it does show that the first bounce occurs near Fib 23.6%. Why not go back to 2000 and look at these old bounces more closely, on a daily chart? I guess these moves are going to be copied very precisely. Which one I like best? - I guess it's MSFT

ss.png

Hmm, this one is interesting too.

[Cobra]

Chart from Bespoke showing a bounce is due short-term

The S&P 500's second consecutive 1%+ decline has put the index 2.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which is well into extreme oversold territory. As of the close, 29% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 50-days. At the lows this summer, this reading got into the single digits.

May not be oversold enough.

[fehro]

Japanese individuals have amassed one of the largest levels of private household wealth in any country around the world. But with local interest rates so low for so long, Japanese money tends to search for investments abroad and retail investment always has the same mentality everywhere - that is why we call them dumb money. The chart above shows that when Japanese households become net buyers of foreign equities, price usually tends to sell off rather sharply. On the other hand, when Japanese households become net sellers of foreign equities, the opposite happens as the price usually tends to rally. To explain this contrarian indicator better, consider this chart linking those important dates to the price of the S&P 500. We can see that Japanese retail money was euphorically buying foreign equities coming into August and September. Most likely, Draghi & Bernanke's one-two punch sucked in the rest of the retail crowd from there onwards, so the chances are high regarding a major top in stock prices, all while fundamental conditions were deteriorating.

But keep in mind.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... y-chart-10

http://www.economicsfanatic.com/2012/05 ... -debt.html

[daytradingES]

estimates would change in AM
NTA
IHIH

[daytradingES]

PS: thanks daytradingES, clarkw and bb52x for gold updates

dtes: I especially liked your meltdown video, and I think it’s actually a good thing (for bears) that there aren’t more grizzly bears on board…yet…

Thanks Al.!!

Funny photo

Yes I don't really care if there are more bears or less - I was just surprised.
I have put it down to the slowly turn up the heat on the frog pot phenomena.

It was the same in 2007 - it took ages and hundreds of points for MSM (main stream media) to even acknowledge the top was in. I think it will be the same. Each time the baby bears get too confident the thieves will sponsor a massive run on the shorts. They can ramp this pig 60 pts in a blink of an eye.

I only trade RTH so if the top is in or not isn't even of interest to me.
It was mostly for the swing traders of the board to share some Gann ideas (time clusters etc).

dt