Cobra's Market View

daytradingES wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:So far my charts say down into tues, bounce on Weds, then possibly down again on Thurs...

Two turns this week, Monday, and Weds...

Indicators suggest a big move on Monday...

Thanks TG.

You have a "turn on Monday" and you also have "down into Tuesday".
With Fridays' last move being up to 1360.50 I'm not sure how these combine together, unless "down into Tuesday" does not mean down from Friday's high close.

Do you mean further up on Monday and then it turns down and continues down into Tuesday?

DT

My chart looks like it is down from close to the open on Monday into Tues sometime, bump up into Wednesday, then down into Friday... so the turn on Monday would point down, then the turn on Weds points down as well after a bounce. I never know levels, so I don't know how big the moves will be...sometimes what looks like a small move could be big and vice versa...

Remember that these charts are sometimes dead on, and sometimes shifted by a day...so beware of that.

The beginning of this week has both positive and negative astro's so it could be choppy...there are negative aspects on Friday...

I also have an indicator of a possible large-ish move on Monday...??

TraderGirl wrote:
My chart looks like it is down from close to the open on Monday into Tues sometime, bump up into Wednesday, then down into Friday... so the turn on Monday would point down, then the turn on Weds points down as well after a bounce. I never know levels, so I don't know how big the moves will be...sometimes what looks like a small move could be big and vice versa...

Remember that these charts are sometimes dead on, and sometimes shifted by a day...so beware of that.

The beginning of this week has both positive and negative astro's so it could be choppy...there are negative aspects on Friday...

I also have an indicator of a possible large-ish move on Monday...??

Thanks TG

Caution noted on shift potential

Perhaps like this?

Royal Flush wrote: Hi DTES,

No I have not noticed a predictive relationship but I think that it is the correct place to start. Below is my swing trading chart. You have the idea on your chart although I refrain from counter trend trades in strong trends. The daily double rejection of the SMA 50 and my red Donchian Channel keep me from trading long.

The attachment xuttuSPY_(60_Min)__11_16_2012.jpg is no longer available

Hi RF,

I understand about not counter-trend trading. As you had mentioned both VIX and TNA, I thought that you were going for the counter-trend trades.

It seems you have the answer on your swing chart you provided.

Using your chart my sell rule would be:
"If it tops at either K band (looks like double Keltner bands) and the STO has peaked and turned down then sell".

On charts I said T to T but the dotted blue are peak to trough - getting late here!

I've included a video as it takes toooooooooo long to type. Really your sell signals are beautiful and the only fine tuning is in the closing -as explained

IHIH
NTA


http://screencast.com/t/gBfYxgx1GLnZ

EURUSD: So far the internal strucure does not indicate much strength

for tomorrow:

NTA
IHIH



(a brief video showing my dilemma in picking the correct H and L)
http://screencast.com/t/XKughJWuIFj4

Cobra wrote:

uempel wrote:Many of my charts don't support the 1343/bottom idea. I'd prefer a bounce down at 1320, as suggested here

ii.png

You mean not even a short-term rebound, we down directly to 1320?

No, no, of course not. But whatever happens in the next few days, I believe the bearish pattern is unfinished. It's Monday 4.00 a.m. now and the mini is up at 1365, the DAX up 1.2%. DAX can easily go up another 0.5%, but I see the same problem with DAX as with SPX: the pattern looks unfinished, at least to my tired eyes

Disclosure: I'm long both mini and DAX, but I will close positions Monday afternoon

Cobra, not sure if you saw this chart, which I posted here earlier. It shows two options - either crazy rally up to 1400ish, or further downside. And this specific chart does not suggest that the downside is over at 1320

uempel wrote:Cobra, not sure if you saw this chart, which I posted here earlier. It shows two options - either crazy rally up to 1400ish, or further downside. And this specific chart does not suggest that the downside is over at 1320

The attachment 4.png is no longer available

Historical chart of 2011 might provide some clues for the very short term, and only for the very short term:

ES Globex: So far price is carrying out the expexted rebound

daytradingES wrote:

Royal Flush wrote: Hi DTES,

No I have not noticed a predictive relationship but I think that it is the correct place to start. Below is my swing trading chart. You have the idea on your chart although I refrain from counter trend trades in strong trends. The daily double rejection of the SMA 50 and my red Donchian Channel keep me from trading long.

xuttuSPY_(60_Min)__11_16_2012.jpg

Hi RF,

I understand about not counter-trend trading. As you had mentioned both VIX and TNA, I thought that you were going for the counter-trend trades.

It seems you have the answer on your swing chart you provided.

Using your chart my sell rule would be:
"If it tops at either K band (looks like double Keltner bands) and the STO has peaked and turned down then sell".

On charts I said T to T but the dotted blue are peak to trough - getting late here!

I've included a video as it takes toooooooooo long to type. Really your sell signals are beautiful and the only fine tuning is in the closing -as explained

IHIH
NTA


http://screencast.com/t/gBfYxgx1GLnZ

GM DTES, Thanks in spades for going to all the effort to explain an exit techique which works... Exits have been a challenge.

Welcome RF.

Just ideas.
I hope it helps.