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Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:27 pm
by fehro
SPX still sitting on support.. so far..

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:29 pm
by fehro
starting to loose 50day SMA's

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:43 pm
by joegamma
TraderGirl wrote:SPY...
looks like more down, BUT r2k 10 min looks like dbl bottom, minor bull diverg...for brave or foolish or lucky...

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:50 pm
by uempel
This is only for the long term:

Two long term ratios I follow are SPX/Gold and USB/SPX. Both ratios suggest that the equity markets might not see new highs in the next few weeks - or even worse. If the USB/SPX ratio rises all the way back to 0.95 and breaks the grey line the bull is dead. But at the moment this is alarmist talk, I guess I sound like Prechter. Please don't take it too seriously :D
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Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:59 pm
by jarbo456
uempel wrote:This is only for the long term:

Two long term ratios I follow are SPX/Gold and USB/SPX. Both ratios suggest that the equity markets might not see new highs in the next few weeks - or even worse. If the USB/SPX ratio rises all the way back to 0.95 and breaks the grey line the bull is dead. But at the moment this is alarmist talk, I guess I sound like Prechter. Please don't take it too seriously :D
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Great ratios!

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:01 pm
by user13
uempel wrote:This is only for the long term:

Two long term ratios I follow are SPX/Gold and USB/SPX. Both ratios suggest that the equity markets might not see new highs in the next few weeks - or even worse. If the USB/SPX ratio rises all the way back to 0.95 and breaks the grey line the bull is dead. But at the moment this is alarmist talk, I guess I sound like Prechter. Please don't take it too seriously :D
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X.png
Great stuff Uempel, It almost looks just like a 2 legged measured move pullback on the SPX/GLD, before the next big leg.
:oops: :? :o

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:08 pm
by TraderGirl
joegamma wrote:
TraderGirl wrote:SPY...
looks like more down, BUT r2k 10 min looks like dbl bottom, minor bull diverg...for brave or foolish or lucky...
Looking at the count for RUT...I think it's quite possible we are only on wave 3, with wave v of 3 not yet complete....IMHO

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:13 pm
by joegamma
TraderGirl wrote:
joegamma wrote:
TraderGirl wrote:SPY...
looks like more down, BUT r2k 10 min looks like dbl bottom, minor bull diverg...for brave or foolish or lucky...
Looking at the count for RUT...I think it's quite possible we are only on wave 3, with wave v of 3 not yet complete....IMHO
Thanks,nice count,
maybe I should exit my calls now :roll:

ANY ONE HAVE STATS ON DAYS WITH $TICK HOD LOWER THAN 500? (or we may get a shortcoverpop latetoday).

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:15 pm
by Cobra
volume surge, day low, so might see rebound here. then we'll see.

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:20 pm
by TraderGirl
May or may not happen...seen it in the past...if this support gives on the XIV...we could cascade lower.....

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:21 pm
by rhight
Mr. BachNut wrote:TRIN seems very low at the moment. It usually pops on a downdraft.
Not sure what to make of it except that it looks off...
TRIN (components) = ( NYADV / NYDEC ) / ( NYUPV / NYDNV )

the component that is keeping TRIN low today is NYDNV, which is low (~300 now) compared tho NYUPV (~100 now). For TRIN to rise today, we need to see in uptick in Down Volume. The lack of volume means sellers have not poured in. I'm afraid to see what happens when sellers do show up.

Hope that helps

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:34 pm
by Cobra
this rebound shall have small legs.

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:34 pm
by TraderGirl
Dow...not sure if this is wave b of (5)...sometimes wave 4 similar height as wave (1) so could see more down, but don't know where wave (1) ended, so this is possible...

it also takes us down to that support level....

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:39 pm
by Cobra
mini target.

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:45 pm
by fehro
possible bullish falling wedge within a larger bear flag/ending diagonal? SPX 5m

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:46 pm
by Mr. BachNut
rhight wrote:
Mr. BachNut wrote:TRIN seems very low at the moment. It usually pops on a downdraft.
Not sure what to make of it except that it looks off...
TRIN (components) = ( NYADV / NYDEC ) / ( NYUPV / NYDNV )

the component that is keeping TRIN low today is NYDNV, which is low (~300 now) compared tho NYUPV (~100 now). For TRIN to rise today, we need to see in uptick in Down Volume. The lack of volume means sellers have not poured in. I'm afraid to see what happens when sellers do show up.

Hope that helps
Agree. Not consistent with a typical selloff and the impulsive price action we have seen.
Part of this could be programs related to OPEX...arbitraging their way to a settlement that enriches the market makers.
Part of this could be dip buyers stepping in.
Part of this could be complacency.
I am interested to see whether there is selling into the close or if it is well bid.

And yes, the bulls still have that solid green arrow coupon... :)

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:46 pm
by Denali92
Will also re-post tonight.

Extensive opex analysis of today:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/08 ... ay-update/

-D

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:02 pm
by wayne0708
Cobra wrote:mini target.
let's buy the FD?

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:05 pm
by jademann
wheres the power hour guy?

Re: 08/15/2013 Live Update

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:08 pm
by fehro
SPX 15m