Cobra's Market View

my guess.

fehro wrote:SPX 60m... on the uptrend line from Nov 2012... careful.. we break that could get nasty...

Fero, you trade with a logarythmic scaled chart?

VIX
The red boxes on VIX (second panel) show how many days VIX can stay above her upper bolinger

OOB
I liked yr new avatar

Al_Dente wrote:

joegamma wrote: your post of 30min SPY Renko(member site) a few days was much appreciated

Hi boss here’s update SPY renko
(it doesn’t lead…..it follows……like me……..)

103spy renko.png

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting

interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

SPX daily.. important support.. break bearish rising wedge target... 1565ish

Al_Dente wrote:OOB
I liked yr new avatar

I wao horrified when it came up insulting someone I quoted

stlwater wrote:

fehro wrote:SPX 60m... on the uptrend line from Nov 2012... careful.. we break that could get nasty...

Fero, you trade with a logarythmic scaled chart?

yup use log... but occasionally look at none log as well for shorter timelines

support line now, a break down from here I will bet for August low. Today back on sell the rip on all time frames.

Gaps

double bottom target met. this rebound shall still have legs. maintain the guess.

SPY Intraday = Sell the rip

joegamma wrote: ....interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Hmmm interesting
No, that one is all mine
I think I just used default [?] “close” then tweaked the brick size to 50-cents as SPY is so high priced
u r right, the close instead of hi/lo reduces chops
thx

Random thoughts:

No easy for bears principle remains in effect. Expect squeezy spikes on rumors/event flow.
Shorts may not want to hold over the weekend and risk a deal getting done in Washington. Bounce before Friday close?
SPX is back in a strong support zone. Early shorts take profits here.
However, possible downside targets are on the radar.
Good probability (non) negotiations in Washington will go to the brink even though a deal probably happens.
In the days ahead, the jackals may want to operate trade to below the November low rising bottoms trend line or under the August low to shake out longs before the next uptrend.
Break of current support/VIX > 19 may be the tell.
I have no idea what will actually happen.

My setups will probably keep me short to have a shot at further downside. (I may trade around the position a bit.)
It may work out or it may not.
They are setup to capture asymmetric reward to risk if it happens. I don't know if it will happen.

Al_Dente wrote:

joegamma wrote: ....interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Hmmm interesting
No, that one is all mine
I think I just used default [?] “close” then tweaked the brick size to 50-cents as SPY is so high priced
u r right, the close instead of hi/lo reduces chops
thx

TOS lets you use (Open, Hi, Low, Close)/4 as a data point which also helps smooth lines without totally ignoring sudden jerks.

resistance area.

short 167.65

EDIT 167.69 average now.

I believe the “island reversal” gaps were filled on SPY and XIV, right?
Then bounced
This bounce is very “squeezable”
I’ll just follow King Snake

Intraday NYMO at -30, might be below the Bollinger Bands which it tends to bounce off of. NYDEC hit 2550.
So maybe tomorrow might be neutral to small bounce. Maybe.