Cobra's Market View

victorm wrote:don't remember who posted abt ARIA a few days ago, any view on it with earnings on 24th? Thanks

I exited my ARIA long Friday as soon as it became apparent that it was going to make a shooting star candle on the daily.

Cobra wrote:cute.

She is

TraderGirl wrote:Back in November 2013, I proposed DUST could get a similar pattern that happened in July 2012...

If 5 waves down for "A", then price would have to get below to complete "C".....so far that has occurred....

Interesting.

How will we know when it hits "C"?
And where do you think "D" will be ?

SPX 5m red trend is the 9 day uptrend line.. yellow ascending triangle if it works.. break down out of it.. look out below.

bears are making a move now.

MrMiyagi wrote:

2501.png

Haven't a lot of low P-bars gone "orphaned" recently??

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Back in November 2013, I proposed DUST could get a similar pattern that happened in July 2012...

If 5 waves down for "A", then price would have to get below to complete "C".....so far that has occurred....

Interesting.

How will we know when it hits "C"?
And where do you think "D" will be ?

The lower chart is what I proposed back in December what the possible path could be. The upper chart is what has transpired since then...a wave "C" low already hit, now heading up to fill the gap...

TraderGirl wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

TraderGirl wrote: DUST and GLD don't act exactly inversely to each other, I would look for a bottoming pattern....

DUST is Gold Miners bear index, based off of HUI (GDX). GLD is Gold ETF.

Right, so GLD and the Dollar trade more inversely to each other than the miners....

BTW, the ratio $HUI:$GOLD, or , in ETF terms GDX:GLD is often indicative of bullish sentiment for gold (the theory is that the miners tend to lead the physical.)

Nrsimha wrote:Haven't a lot of low P-bars gone "orphaned" recently??

Yes they have...

TraderGirl wrote:

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Back in November 2013, I proposed DUST could get a similar pattern that happened in July 2012...

If 5 waves down for "A", then price would have to get below to complete "C".....so far that has occurred....

Interesting.

How will we know when it hits "C"?
And where do you think "D" will be ?

The lower chart is what I proposed back in December what the possible path could be. The upper chart is what has transpired since then...a wave "C" low already hit, now heading up to fill the gap...

SWEET!!

I am going for a walk nice day out, what a waste of time today.

Peace!

XIV hi on day

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Back in November 2013, I proposed DUST could get a similar pattern that happened in July 2012...

If 5 waves down for "A", then price would have to get below to complete "C".....so far that has occurred....

Interesting.

How will we know when it hits "C"?
And where do you think "D" will be ?

The lower chart is what I proposed back in December what the possible path could be. The upper chart is what has transpired since then...a wave "C" low already hit, now heading up to fill the gap...

SWEET!!

TG: I would give my right arm for your view on Natural Gas.

ascending triangle, bias is up.

Nrsimha wrote:

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

Nrsimha wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Back in November 2013, I proposed DUST could get a similar pattern that happened in July 2012...

If 5 waves down for "A", then price would have to get below to complete "C".....so far that has occurred....

Interesting.

How will we know when it hits "C"?
And where do you think "D" will be ?

The lower chart is what I proposed back in December what the possible path could be. The upper chart is what has transpired since then...a wave "C" low already hit, now heading up to fill the gap...

SWEET!!

TG: I would give my right arm for your view on Natural Gas.

Back in November (lower chart) someone asked me if they should short Nat Gas, and I told them it looked more like a buy at that time...and so it was...

Now, it is in a zone that has normally been a sell zone...

If you look at the seasonality, last year at this time, there was a low in Nat Gas, and the year before that there was a high (look at cycle brackets), so in terms of cycles and technicals there could be a trend change, unless it consolidates here....

another test of day high, breakout is more likely, the problem is not much time left.

well, guess that's it for today. Up 8 days in a row, doesn't guarantee the next day will be in red. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Some SPY observations:

SPY bottomed a couple of weeks ago in a pierce of its lower BB.

Rallies that ensue off of such bottoms are numerous. This one is getting long with 8 days up. I looked at SPY from January 1st, 2007 to the present. I count 35 rallies that fit the current scenario. ALL of them, 35/35, either did not end before piercing the upper BB, or came EXTREMELY close to doing so (and there were only 4-5 that were such "near misses").

I could NOT find a SINGLE case where such a rally topped out in the middle of the BB, like where we are now.



I think the minimum target is 186 on SPY. However, in several cases the rally kept going beyond the first pierce of the upper BB. What I can say is a top right NOW has not happened in this setup in the past 7+ years.

$SPX: High risk of a s/t pullback. Before or after OPEX ?