Cobra's Market View

pidge66 wrote:

cletus wrote:Buying some protective puts on SPY today due to the weakness in IYR and the cyclical turn at 12 EST today. I am not super bearish but good to get some protection here.

Are your protective puts ITM puts? Which expiration and what strike? THanks!

I have bought July 124 SPY puts.

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TRADE ALERT
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Bought July 124 SPY puts at 1.14.

here's a 1 min SPX

market is pretty quiet now. with a contraction like this, i think there might be a big wave coming.
i am a scalper. my big wave by definition = 5 points ish.

H3 on pullback to EMA20, the rebound will tell us if the rebound is for real or is losing the momentum.

lol and the craziness continues.. why is WTI crude up today on stronger dollar? because brent is up on stronger dollar (against euro)... the loop that feeds itself..

I believe this oversold rally will last until middle of next week. It is picking up momentum at this moment.

luckystar2006 wrote:I believe this oversold rally will last until middle of next week. It is picking up momentum at this moment.

next week is oe. i think those itm puts need to be killed.

gold having a nice pop to the upside 1550

Up and Dn vol. are both low right now.May be pull back befor move higher.Lets see.

This chart gives a good general view of SPX. I sold yesterday's longs because we'll be going away for a long weekend, but if I were here tomorrow I would have eyed 1293 as a target.

cougar wrote:

PLUNGE wrote:SPY has an impulsive 5 waves up from yesterday's low. We'll likely see a 50% pullback in 3 waves before next move higher.

I agree!

UnHowever, there is another possibility:
However, there is another possibility:
We only had, so far, the top of w5 of W3, in which case, W5 should go above 129.54.
The internals of W3 also work.
As I was typing this...it happened.....

uempel wrote:This chart gives a good general view of SPX. I sold yesterday's longs because we'll be going away for a long weekend, but if I were here tomorrow I would have eyed 1293 as a target.

SPXB.png

Agree Uempel. If it breaks through that level the shorts are trapped and should cover. Disclosure: I'm long from 1279.

the bear party is over folks

Among other short-term signals, below chart convinced me that this oversold rallying will last longer than a day or two. It is taken off from the base built up for quite sometimes. Besides, none of my signals is showing any big selloff from here (except medium-term ones).

cougar wrote:

cougar wrote:

PLUNGE wrote:SPY has an impulsive 5 waves up from yesterday's low. We'll likely see a 50% pullback in 3 waves before next move higher.

I agree!

UnHowever, there is another possibility:
However, there is another possibility:
We only had, so far, the top of w5 of W3, in which case, W5 should go above 129.54.
The internals of W3 also work.
As I was typing this...it happened.....

Nice Cougar! It was W3 and now in W5. If W5 = W1, the target is 129.78 before the pullback. We're almost there.

ChiOsc on 60 min SPY is quite high. Today's gains might not hold into the close. As cobra stated, highly likely a lower low is still coming. We need positive divergence on the daily chart. So while I'm bullish intermediate term, it's ok buying some put protection on this bounce for the time being. V-shaped bottoms do occur but they are rare.

dow leading others happily following

12 EST has passed and we're at a cyclical turn. Beware of a potential drop here at any time. The next cycle terminates towards the close.

Volume is VERY weak on this rally at this point.

if we get a strong break over 102.70, gonna add a couple more contracts , next target would be 103.80 and then the 50% retracement of the entire move down from 114 to 95 at 104.64...