Cobra's Market View

ChiOsc a little high now, so there're chances that my evil plan will be fulfilled.

what makes UNG attractive?

ES-ZB
Popcorn for lunch?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es-zb.html
Might make you barf.
Like bonds.

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TRADE ALERT
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Bought July SPY 125 puts at 1.51. Why not...I'll probably hold these till Wednesday at least, unless they start working right away in which case I might pull them off at the close.

maybe target is around 1290

Carry trade, this is very important to the Bulls survival, and it ain't that hot. watch 24 level like a hawk here.

Wait for SPY making it's direction. down or up. I believe down.

hold that Channel.

Spy could not break Fri high so it now looks like we may have a new lower high put in.It may be to early to tell but lets wait and see.

One thing I've observed over the years is that nearly every short or longer term trend change will start with a gap in the opposite direction and end with a gap in the same direction. So, ideally if the market is to turn lower this week, it would probably be best to wait for a gap UP to begin shorting.

i think we'll see a breakout on the upside soon. what really matters is what happens after the breakout...

There it was, so far your evil prediction is looking spot on! I think the floor is quite low on this market today. If there is heavy selling into the close, possible gap down tomorrow morning?

Now the channel is out, the next move watch for little bear flag, the fast and furious move that will come next if it's the same movie that I've seen times and times again.

Nomorework wrote:There it was, so far your evil prediction is looking spot on! I think the floor is quite low on this market today. If there is heavy selling into the close, possible gap down tomorrow morning?

I would put higher odds on a gap up tomorrow but a down close or a reversal from the gap.

Wednesday is supposed to be the big down day.

critical here. maintain the evil plan but still the plan needs to be adjusted as soon as I see more evidences.

cletus wrote:

Nomorework wrote:There it was, so far your evil prediction is looking spot on! I think the floor is quite low on this market today. If there is heavy selling into the close, possible gap down tomorrow morning?

I would put higher odds on a gap up tomorrow but a down close or a reversal from the gap.

Wednesday is supposed to be the big down day.

Thanks Cletus, what do you see that I don't? Relative newb here, I ask because I'm interested to learn, not as a challenge! Thanks

Cobra, you may not have time to answer this but what are the settings on your chiOsc? I cant get mine to show anything.

I am sure this is the same movie

Nomorework wrote:

cletus wrote:

Nomorework wrote:There it was, so far your evil prediction is looking spot on! I think the floor is quite low on this market today. If there is heavy selling into the close, possible gap down tomorrow morning?

I would put higher odds on a gap up tomorrow but a down close or a reversal from the gap.

Wednesday is supposed to be the big down day.

Thanks Cletus, what do you see that I don't? Relative newb here, I ask because I'm interested to learn, not as a challenge! Thanks

Seasonality is bearish for wednesday. As for the gap up prediction, the reasoning is that if Wednesday is to turn lower, we'll need a short-term trend change, which usually requires a gap in the opposite direction (i.e. a gap up open). However, this is not a hard and fast rule. It's worth waiting for though, although I bought some puts at the highs today to protect into the close.

normally, this should be a 2 legged down (5 min chart only) but given the fact we had a very strong rally since this morning, I'd suspect this kind of 2 legged call here. we'll see. (look at my eyes, i'm watching...)