Cobra's Market View

Puts are very cheap with the VIX under 16, definitely puts are a buy. Smart money is selling up here just as the small traders think they've caught the bottom. No institutional buyers at the previous lows as of yet. Could see a little more upside but the market remains a sell.

Hi Everybody.

this big picture, is this possible?

Why not?

tinted area as ascending triangle text book target.

SPX wants to go to 1342 and will try to climb that mountain. next week?

uempel wrote:Slight possibility...

SPX3.png

Looks like the u-turn seems abit too big. But definitely still possible.

Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

WhyNot wrote:Hi Everybody.

this big picture, is this possible?

Yes..Possible..Next week will tell the direction.

alwzopn wrote:Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

the best way to make money is try not to be smart: always follow. For example now the market is up, so long only, don't even bother to find a top, that's the secret of trading. You see my short-term model? nothing unique with that model, it simply follows, but it makes steady money.

my report is different, as I've been saying, it has to find top or bottom, otherwise the only thing I can say everyday is like this: trend is up/down.

alwzopn wrote:Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

let's say another example:

you're blindfolded.

ask you to catch a long stick or club.

which chances are higher, you catch exactly the end of the stick or the stick's body?

so, don't bother to guess top or bottom. the simpler the better.

Mark Minervi is generally on the ball, he says 'green light' - http://markminerviniblog.blogspot.com/2 ... ignal.html

The "new moon period" which is the 15 days surrounding the new moon ends next Wednesday. It has been proven statistically that the 15 days around the new moon are more bullish than the 15 days surrounding the full moon. Therefore, we should see general under-performance in the market, if not a downside bias, heading into mid July.

10-meter?
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_572.html
No no...you first.

Cobra

SPY daily candle is totally out of BB(20) , so far.

Any edge on that ?

Cobra wrote:

alwzopn wrote:Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

the best way to make money is try not to be smart: always follow. For example now the market is up, so long only, don't even bother to find a top, that's the secret of trading. You see my short-term model? nothing unique with that model, it simply follows, but it makes steady money.

my report is different, as I've been saying, it has to find top or bottom, otherwise the only thing I can say everyday is like this: trend is up/down.

Ban Zhang, I remember you said before, the stop loss of your short term model is usually the previous low...am I right? Thanks!!

Price projection is all good and fun, don't stick to it. know the exit.

For anyone interested in the research on the moon, you can find it here

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1748325/posts

This proves that returns should be much smaller, if not negative, in the 15 days around the full moon that is forthcoming. We find strong evidence of market tops forming around new moons an bottoms forming around full moons.

EvilTrader wrote:Cobra

SPY daily candle is totally out of BB(20) , so far.

Any edge on that ?

let's wait for close. if still it's the case, the conclusion would be:

1. any up thereafter will be erased in short-term.
2. the erase is buy opp.
3. green Aug.

Cobra wrote:

alwzopn wrote:Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

let's say another example:

you're blindfolded.

ask you to catch a long stick or club.

which chances are higher, you catch exactly the end of the stick or the stick's body?

so, don't bother to guess top or bottom. the simpler the better.

Ban Zhang V5!!

feibingjia wrote:

Cobra wrote:

alwzopn wrote:Cobra,

VIX hitting lower BB, -ve money flow reading didn't work.

I think, the best way to make money is buy when others panic and sentiment reading are too bearish.

the best way to make money is try not to be smart: always follow. For example now the market is up, so long only, don't even bother to find a top, that's the secret of trading. You see my short-term model? nothing unique with that model, it simply follows, but it makes steady money.

my report is different, as I've been saying, it has to find top or bottom, otherwise the only thing I can say everyday is like this: trend is up/down.

Ban Zhang, I remember you said before, the stop loss of your short term model is usually the previous low...am I right? Thanks!!

not previous low, better the previous swing low, if possible, the 2nd swing low as the 1st swing low is always the stop run target.

now i'm thinking of using ATR as stop loss because it's more objective. the swing low as stop loss is too subjective!