10/27/2011 Intraday Watering

[StrikePrice]

if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

Agreed. Europe is screwed. The UK did well to stay clear and China and India will continue to gain on the sad Europeans. Karma coming due for the Germans. (no offense, I'm part German)

[99er]

Tabby

RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_27.html

This may be a beautiful wave!

[BullBear52x]

Ha? now everyone on fundamental. I'll reset my position at 125. can't fight them join them.

[agnosia]

my last added batch set the same covering price as yours, however, i started too early at too low price. The last batch shorted at 1261.75 pre-market, (it was meant to scalp )

when i do aggressive shorts i always run a 2 point stop. so if i am wrong the position won't get away from me. shorting is dangerous. be careful man

[KENA]

Not much to say today..It has all been said..Not adding to my shorts as yet..I will watch,.. Wait and see..Maybe I will get something done around the house now that the whole world is ok.

[pady]

cobra - Could this be exhaustion ? I mean we havent had even a single 23.6% retrace.

[champix]

Gold is running up again.
Long 1711 this morning, target could be 1740... let's see !

[Al_Dente]

Ha? now everyone on fundamental. I'll reset my position at 125. can't fight them join them.

Yo BB: what u gonna be for Halloween….....mmmm, guessing…....…mmmm….I have no clue?

[Al_Dente]

Not much to say today..It has all been said..Not adding to my shorts as yet..I will watch,.. Wait and see..Maybe I will get something done around the house now that the whole world is ok.

[EvilTrader]

I am trading extremely cautious at this point.

Attention to this.

Euro countries Spreads are not going down today.

So bond traders are skeptical of the bail-out and are NOT buying this equity rally.

This can be the mother of all traps....

[pablorynx]

if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

Agreed. Europe is screwed. The UK did well to stay clear and China and India will continue to gain on the sad Europeans. Karma coming due for the Germans. (no offense, I'm part German)

Fundamentals have their place in informing investment decisions for sure. For instance: US data is better than had been expected. GDP @ 2.5% was a pipe dream just a month ago. Non-distressed home prices have stabilized and in certain areas of the country, demographic forces have pushed them higher. The Baltic Dry index is showing signs of life, implying that Chinese shipments of iron/coal have increased dramatically (I assume Chinese cause who else is going to use these goods now). And euroland will be dead (at some point), policy makers are good at dragging the brain-dead patient. The US will also be similarly screwed (but it might take us 10 years to get there), barring some unforseen technological innovation which provides us with leverage for growth (non-financial). So what does this leave me with? Et ceteris paribus, the market rallies. Cause everyone feels the terrible situation we're all in, but our positions reflect that reality. Everyone already gets the joke. Not many are getting the timing. So yes, fundamentally, technically, you should be long.

[agnosia]

i shorted /cl 93.38, stop 93.48. looks like a bull flag of sorts or down channel. looking to cover near 92.50.

[little piggy]

So everybody unload their long position? Does anybody still hold long? I mean long spy.

[ultramarine]

I am trading extremely cautious at this point.

Attention to this.

Euro countries Spreads are not going down today.

So bond traders are skeptical of the bail-out and are NOT buying this equity rally.

This can be the mother of all traps....

Thanks. I had been wondering how this was going over in the bond market. I had heard that CDS spreads were falling this morning however.

[janez]

Any aapl shorters here? What is your target? 399.8?I got in 1 deep ITM put around 406.5. It seems weaker than the mkt.

[BullBear52x]

I was never a spike/P-bar believer, I was making fun of 127 P-bar on mid August, well, guess where we are now? for that, yesterday P-bar? I'll believe it if we see 119 again in a month.

[soku]

i guess es need to find a solid place to land. i guess this could be 1250-1253 area.
btw, i am not good at the trending market or any correction after a strong trend.

[pablorynx]

Any aapl shorters here? What is your target? 399.8?I got in 1 deep ITM put around 406.5. It seems weaker than the mkt.

So far, looks like a pretty good bear flag drawing out, would imply 25pts after the break, probably gets you to the low 370s

[StrikePrice]

if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

Agreed. Europe is screwed. The UK did well to stay clear and China and India will continue to gain on the sad Europeans. Karma coming due for the Germans. (no offense, I'm part German)

Fundamentals have their place in informing investment decisions for sure. For instance: US data is better than had been expected. GDP @ 2.5% was a pipe dream just a month ago. Non-distressed home prices have stabilized and in certain areas of the country, demographic forces have pushed them higher. The Baltic Dry index is showing signs of life, implying that Chinese shipments of iron/coal have increased dramatically (I assume Chinese cause who else is going to use these goods now). And euroland will be dead (at some point), policy makers are good at dragging the brain-dead patient. The US will also be similarly screwed (but it might take us 10 years to get there), barring some unforseen technological innovation which provides us with leverage for growth (non-financial). So what does this leave me with? Et ceteris paribus, the market rallies. Cause everyone feels the terrible situation we're all in, but our positions reflect that reality. Everyone already gets the joke. Not many are getting the timing. So yes, fundamentally, technically, you should be long.

Oh I'm no sucka. I hold AAPL long (majority of my Long positions) and it's up 25% YTD. It's the market I like to short.

[snowinwind]

What concerns me is that so many people expect the pull back from the 200 MA. Will MMs let the majority cheer? Most time, no.