Cobra's Market View

Cobra , with the MACD histogram ticking down today ,, dont you think we topped out yesterday on SPX before a move down coming?

I cannot say this exactly is what I expected as the rebound is weaker than I thought. I'd see more bars.

tiki wrote:Hi Cobra-

I'm a subscriber and just had a quick question for you regarding the High-to-Low 6.5% pullback you have in your evil plan that you mention has 100% occurance since 2000.

in that 100% occurance rate, within which months had it historically happened? I guess I'm wondering what the "deadline" could be for it to take place.

Also, are there any other reasons why you expect such a pullback other than that is has occured in the past around this time of year?

Thanks!

Tiki, none of my business, but do not get caught up in some statistical phenomenon. Traders need solutions to cope with all kinds of market patterns, we can't focus on just one pattern which might or might not occur. Market might shoot up to 1470 (unlikely, but who knows) before a major correction occurs. So don't stumble over Cobra's stat

SWalsh wrote:Has anyone read "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas?

while back--rate it ok not amazing. most of the trading psych books i have seen are fairly easy to understand--but lack depth. so if anyone finds one really intense please post so the rest of us can check it out.

EURUSD: The EWP is not over yet. i expect further weakness for the s/t

TraderGirl wrote:txn...looks like it could be in a bear flag...

TG congrat to 1000 great posts drink on me

CarlosDK wrote:Cobra , with the MACD histogram ticking down today ,, dont you think we topped out yesterday on SPX before a move down coming?

MACD HIST? Tell me your time frame, daily or 60 min? The daily MACD Hist is not confirmed down yet because we still have 4 hours, besides MACD Hist down only means the up momentum is weakening, doesn't necessarily mean the price would down.

As for we topped out yesterday or not, I think I've explained in last night market outlook clearly, see sentence: " Whether such a “taking breath” means THE TOP...", it's the 2nd sentence of the report. Everything I say there I must have some kind of hard evidence to back me up, so I might have already had the conclusion but before I see some hard evidences, I cannot say. For you, on the other hand, you need combine your evidences with mine and make your own decision whether to long or short. This is what the daily market outlook for.

if you don't want to make a decision then the CIS in the daily trading signals provides clear trading signals, you can refer that.

OK, the plan is still on, I see an ascending triangle here, so the bias is up.

One heck of a phantom bar on IWM... I think Mr T kicked some serious ass to put the fear of jeebus in the MM!

uempel wrote:

tiki wrote:Hi Cobra-

I'm a subscriber and just had a quick question for you regarding the High-to-Low 6.5% pullback you have in your evil plan that you mention has 100% occurance since 2000.

in that 100% occurance rate, within which months had it historically happened? I guess I'm wondering what the "deadline" could be for it to take place.

Also, are there any other reasons why you expect such a pullback other than that is has occured in the past around this time of year?

Thanks!

Tiki, none of my business, but do not get caught up in some statistical phenomenon. Traders need solutions to cope with all kinds of market patterns, we can't focus on just one pattern which might or might not occur. Market might shoot up to 1470 (unlikely, but who knows) before a major correction occurs. So don't stumble over Cobra's stat

strongly support uempel here. i would phrase it--stats are for after hours planning for the most part (sigh. . nothing is ever 100%) and during the day (intra day) being fluid and "sticking" to the action is what is important. the dangers in trading (again only my point of view) are getting splintered attention mentally between time frames or concepts. so if you are experienced and can "hold cobra's 6.5 in your head" and at the same time "react to the action as suggested" great. if you have problems with doing both--try one or the other for a while and see if it improves your trades.

the problem with splintered attention is you tend to loosen your grip on your approach (rule set/trading guidelines/approach/style etc) and this can take your edge. or not. good luck with your trades.

Openwave has been doing well, but could it be forming a double zig zag down??

yes!

KeiZai wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:txn...looks like it could be in a bear flag...

TG congrat to 1000 great posts drink on me

Thanks KeiZai

text book target. I need see more bars before my next call. I believe I scored twice already, so I hide the 3rd call, as I need adjust it.

BULLISH VIEW

possible trendlines

Getting close, i will short it

IWM is green, baby!

rpccharts wrote:BULLISH VIEW

your chart got cut off...