Cobra's Market View

xfradnex wrote:Case for a dead cat bounce of some type at the bottom of the SPY channel in Blue. The Purple Line is for Daily highs and yellow for lows. If we go below bottom channel, assume we are in panic mode. Current support is 137.25: slope from last two lows; this is also supported by line created from lows on 7-12-12 and 7-24-12 (not a strong support); also supported by alot of revisits starting at 137.20 and below.

Thanks for the chart xfrad.

Does your chart indicate if Monday will be an up day?
You have two shaded rectangles showing 2 groups of 3 down days.

DT

[quote="Al_Dente"
Here is XLI based on an old Linda Raschke setting Here is XLI based on my “equivolume” setting, which builds volume inside each price bar...(loaded with other crap)
XLI needs a bounce, based on the fact that its downtrend last week is unsustainably steep, also has a tiny bit of pos diverg
[edit: but the bounce could be horizontal; it doesn't have to be vertical]

[if this is not what u wanted, please ask me again] [/quote]

Hi Al,

Does this chart mean XLI has likely it a low and will bounce for a few days?

tks,
DT

Looks like we may see a low of some kind on the 15th... bounce into 20/21st...then another low around 27/28th...looking for either a higher low on 27/28th, or lower low with pos d...

Friday's low was also a TCL OS. This one of my favorite setups in day trading on a 5" chart. I'm not sure of it's impact on such a long TF is anyone? If its like the prior low we could still get Trader Girl's low on the 15th.

Royal Flush wrote:Friday's low was also a TCL OS. This one of my favorite setups in day trading on a 5" chart. I'm not sure of it's impact on such a long TF is anyone? If its like the prior low we could still get Trader Girl's low on the 15th.

Nice chart and thanks for that, Royal-- I suspect we get a violent counter rally tues/wed to a high on 15th/16th then sell off..

Here's my updated SPY puts chart-- it's actually 6 trading days not 5 (or so i thought! )
Which indicates another attempt at a SPY 142ish target if it hits that channel(Royal's upper channel line)- around the 15th/16th?? WE SHALL soon SEE

Royal Flush wrote:Friday's low was also a TCL OS. This one of my favorite setups in day trading on a 5" chart. I'm not sure of it's impact on such a long TF is anyone? If its like the prior low we could still get Trader Girl's low on the 15th.

What is TCL OS?

Tks

daytradingES wrote:

xfradnex wrote:Case for a dead cat bounce of some type at the bottom of the SPY channel in Blue. The Purple Line is for Daily highs and yellow for lows. If we go below bottom channel, assume we are in panic mode. Current support is 137.25: slope from last two lows; this is also supported by line created from lows on 7-12-12 and 7-24-12 (not a strong support); also supported by alot of revisits starting at 137.20 and below.

Thanks for the chart xfrad.

Does your chart indicate if Monday will be an up day?
You have two shaded rectangles showing 2 groups of 3 down days.

DT

I believe we will get some type of bounce because we are one the bottom of a channel . I made the boxes, because they show recent max down moves for 3 day periods (over last few months). I will make an assumption that we will not exceed the previous 3 day strong move down (odds) and move sideways like after the first box. Hope you are doing OK.

uempel wrote:Al_Dente, as to AAPL: I'm not sure if EW is the right approach. A few months ago I started to check out similar patterns from 2000. This monthly overview is not extremely precise, but it does show that the first bounce occurs near Fib 23.6%. Why not go back to 2000 and look at these old bounces more closely, on a daily chart? I guess these moves are going to be copied very precisely. Which one I like best? - I guess it's MSFT

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Chris Kimble calls it "the eiffel tower pattern", it's the pattern that defines almost every bubble behavior in history, recent examples can include silver in 2011, the housing bubble price, nasdaq in 2000, shanghai index in 2007. the permanent features include exponential growth which is supported by ever steeper trendlines until a climax and a decline afterwards of at least 50%, sometimes much more. Apple's size is hurting it here unless it can produce a new and wonderful gadget that everyone in the world would buy in order to maintain its current growth.

USD INDEX: The main "switch" of risk off / risk on

daytradingES wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:Friday's low was also a TCL OS. This one of my favorite setups in day trading on a 5" chart. I'm not sure of it's impact on such a long TF is anyone? If its like the prior low we could still get Trader Girl's low on the 15th.

What is TCL OS?

Tks

No problem TCL OS = Trend Channel Line Over Shoot. Price Action (PA) on Fri. has indicated the beginnings of a reversal subsequent to the OS.