Cobra's Market View

Sentimentrader site is down, so will have no data for II, AAII and Smart Money for now.

Institutional buying and selling action from stocktiming shows a little more distribution and a little less accumulation. Need see if the trend goes on the next week.

II and AAII. No comments.

Smart Money huge short, not record short though.

Please don't forget our Investors Lounge forum.
viewforum.php?f=11

Summary of the week's stock picks. It's a perfect week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1009&p=138338#p138338

The stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1016&p=138340#p138340

cobra is there any way to find out when options like let say the 168-164 august puts they have a volume of 17 k . august 17 expiration
if that was a bullish bet or a bearish bet how can we find out? that is not a credit spread vs a bull put spread ? really appreciated

grachu wrote:cobra is there any way to find out when options like let say the 168-164 august puts they have a volume of 17 k . august 17 expiration
if that was a bullish bet or a bearish bet how can we find out? that is not a credit spread vs a bull put spread ? really appreciated

I don't know.

XIV weekly closed high above its upper bolinger band (20/2 on the weekly)
Six straight-up weekly bull bars
This is unusual for XIV, and the past shows that the week following this kind of action is a bit soft
The trendline appears unsustainably steep, so XIV should soon need a bit of relief by moving either sideways or down
Using my old “Standard Deviation” chart template on the DAILY, it’s clear that XIV likes to spend time in the extreme “Red Zone” (3 standard deviations outside its 50ma), where it is now, but it usually doesn’t stay that extreme for more than a few days
And for those of you who think that XIV is just a little 1x, this is true, but glance at the difference in PERCENTAGE PERFORMANCE between SPY and the XIV over her short 3-year life span (bottom panel)

Looks like another bounce coming in long bonds…
The etf TLT made a new short-term low, but the benchmark 10 yr $UST did not make a low, rather the $UST printed an
UNCONFIRMED inverted head-and-shoulders pattern
And the 30 yr $USB made a double bottom
And yield $TNX made a corresponding double top pattern
So TLT may bounce, short-term, at least up to its declining moving averages
….but it has a lot more to prove before medium-term folks are comfortable with it

Conversly, if $UST convincingly breaks its old low of 124.51…. bonds will be in real trouble
… and $UST will head straight toward its 121 zone…

Liquidity from the look of DBV

DBV is Bearish, double bottom save or continue falling off a cliff?In the past I'd like to look at it this way, cleaner look, me thinks, well, it's still inits consolidation phase, last time all indexes floating up to the new high durring this time until DBV broke down from its consolidation range and taking every thing down with itAnd here I overlay SPX , I can see some correlation. from this short term look I think a support or break down of DBV can tell us something in a week to come. well, whatever the out come will be, it will not stop me from taking few days off next week have a good cold one.

Anybody know how/where to get Rydex flow of funds data?

Great read from decisionpoint's Carl Swenlin: Rydex retailers either still bearish, of have yet to jump onboard this rally...http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/

joegamma wrote:Anybody know how/where to get Rydex flow of funds data?

Great read from decisionpoint's Carl Swenlin: Rydex retailers either still bearish, of have yet to jump onboard this rally...http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/

The claim isn't true. Rydex bull asset flow almost extreme although still lots of buying bear asset.

joegamma wrote:Anybody know how/where to get Rydex flow of funds data?

Great read from decisionpoint's Carl Swenlin: Rydex retailers either still bearish, of have yet to jump onboard this rally...http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/

Carl has a page here about the methodology http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/RydexRatio.html

However, it looks like some of the symbols have changed. From what I could tell from a quick glance, it probably uses RYANX for Rydex bulls and RYURX for Rydex bears in the calculations.

Anyway, just scratching the surface but maybe a place to start? Hope it helps...

Have a good weekend

An interesting peek behind the curtain.

Michael Lewis [author of “Liar’s Poker” and “The Big Short”] bashes Goldman Sachs in his Vanity Fair story on Serge Aleynikov, the GS Programmer who was convicted of stealing “”proprietary source code”” (which was mostly “open-source code” but GS believed it was their “wholly owned property”).

On HFT: “The top high-frequency-trading firms chuck out their old gear and buy new stuff every few months.”

On the crash:
“Day after volatile day in September 2008, Goldman’s supposedly brilliant traders were losing tens of millions of dollars. “All of the expectations didn’t work,” recalls Serge. “They thought they controlled the market, but it was an illusion. Everyone would come into work and were blown away by the fact that they couldn’t control anything at all.”

On programming code on Wall Street:
“...more than half the programmers at Goldman were Russians. Russians had a reputation for being the best programmers on Wall Street...”

“By the time the financial crisis hit, Serge had a reputation of which he himself was unaware: he was known to corporate recruiters outside Goldman as the best programmer in the firm. “There were 20 guys on Wall Street who could do what Serge could do,” says a headhunter who works often for high-frequency-trading firms. “And he was one of the best, if not the best.”

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2013 ... programmer

Fun charts. Stops will be at recent hi/lo, target= Upper/lower bb. not much post here lately, lets do something fun.

Chart of the Day
Bull flag can take out the last sell. now look similar to the last 2x. bears might get spank again.

I’ve been monitoring employment stocks for clues, and a few weeks ago pointed out the MANpower outperformance.
Here the employment index has exceeded two upside targets on a parabolic two week breakout.
On the long-term WEEKLY chart you can see the breakout/support/resistance more clearly.
The breakout will probably need back-testing, but I suppose that means everything is now fine, especially with part-time hiring....

Al_Dente wrote:XIV weekly closed high above its upper bolinger band (20/2 on the weekly)
Six straight-up weekly bull bars
This is unusual for XIV, and the past shows that the week following this kind of action is a bit soft
The trendline appears unsustainably steep, so XIV should soon need a bit of relief by moving either sideways or down

83xiv.png

Using my old “Standard Deviation” chart template on the DAILY, it’s clear that XIV likes to spend time in the extreme “Red Zone” (3 standard deviations outside its 50ma), where it is now, but it usually doesn’t stay that extreme for more than a few days

83xiv std dev_png.png

And for those of you who think that XIV is just a little 1x, this is true, but glance at the difference in PERCENTAGE PERFORMANCE between SPY and the XIV over her short 3-year life span (bottom panel)

83xiv percent.png

_________________________

Al,
Thanks for the above charts.
Especially like the XIV -- 1X chart comparison, a real eye opener.
Take time to vote for the snake.
Good Trades everyone,
Panamajack

PanamaJack wrote:Al,
Thanks for the above charts.
Especially like the XIV -- 1X chart comparison, a real eye opener.
Take time to vote for the snake.
Good Trades everyone,
Panamajack

thanks jack

Here’s Alexander Elder [of the Elder bars fame] on the best trade of the [LAST] week:
short UVXY/long XIV
which is/was “super-aggressive risk taking”
http://www.spiketrade.com/weeklygold.php