Cobra's Market View

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This sudden large green bar could be an exhaustion bar, so might see pullback here first which most likely would be bought.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

attached is a chart of a potential complex H&S formation on the SPY daily chart ( http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html ). I'm just an amateur at this so I want your opinion. Here are the potential catalysts to break the neckline:

Syria situation will be resolved shortly leading to a focus on
1) US 10year will hit 3% or more soon
2) FOMC meeting and potential tapering
3) U.S. Budget expires Sept 30th with debate starting after Syria is resolved
4) Debt Ceiling debate starts up (extraordinary measures have only about 4 weeks left)

Just waiting for the pattern to confirm with a break below the neckline (164.5-165)

or breakout above (169-169.5)

any thoughts?

Hightower pm morning blurb. glta

Nearing short.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BifFedbcHzE

Hey Cobra, a very unlikely gap up today ! hmmm.... maybe an exhaustion, so top maybe close.

Gap closed

gappy wrote:Hightower pm morning blurb. glta

Capture.PNG

Thank you again gappy for your every morning updates.

victorm wrote:

gappy wrote:Hightower pm morning blurb. glta

Capture.PNG

Thank you again gappy for your every morning updates.

You are welcome. For entertainment only, and we will see later if it holds any tradable insight.

Posted in the spirit of "you never know" how high it will go in a liquidity fueled bubble. POMO lives! Just keep looking over your shoulder.

[quote="rhight"]Posted in the spirit of "you never know" how high it will go in a liquidity fueled bubble. POMO lives! Just keep looking over your shoulder.
Humble has me watching for any roll over in junk to reg bond. http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogsp ... report.com

morning hourly black bar: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /286407830;

Corn trade back on the table here...

Cobra wrote:members only update at 9:53 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

same pattern seen on XIV

Long. Trend short got stopped yesterday. Ouch.

My summation index signal is up.
My composite trend signal is down. It has improved dramatically though and could turn up today or tomorrow.
An Arms sell warning is in effect into next week.

The bulls won by knock-out.
The summation signal correctly called the turn here.
I am still cautionary.
It looks like the summation signal may read overbought after the close if we have a decent day today.
That combined with the ARMs sell warning would have me tightening stops on the longs.

gappy wrote:

rhight wrote:Posted in the spirit of "you never know" how high it will go in a liquidity fueled bubble. POMO lives! Just keep looking over your shoulder.
Humble has me watching for any roll over in junk to reg bond. http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogsp ... report.com

hygagg.png

I keep a somewhat similar chart, 6 year, using JNK:TLT
No roll over yet, mainly due to the dive in TLT (interest rates up). When stress occurs, it is assumed that there will be a safe money flow into Treasuries, and a drop in junk bonds. Thanks for the link.

Todays Hightower corn blurb for fun.

smith wrote:attached is a chart of a potential complex H&S formation on the SPY daily chart ( http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html ).

SPY091013.png

I'm watching the same thing.