Cobra's Market View

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Bears need decisively break the blue line below in order to make the Double Top dream come true. For now I don't see anything wrong, bears have as most 50% chances. Roller-coaster show at 2pm ET, don't forget.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

I maintain unchanged the current scenario:

On the August 28 low price has established a “swing” low and it has resumed the intermediate up trend.

In the weekly chart below we can see 2 major reasons:

• SPX has recovered above both the 20 and 10 wma, in addition both ma have a positive slope.

• The 3 wma has crossed above the 5 wma

Critical price levels:

• Obvious support at the weekly gap = 1687.99

• Resistance: August peak = 1709.67 // Upper BB = 1722 // Trend Line = 1425 (2 points weekly raise)

So far the weekly candlestick is bullish, so we cannot rule out more upside action maybe with a large white Hallow candlestick or a reversal at the August high with a Shooting Star.

Two key events are upon us:

• Today is Bernanke´s day.

• Tomorrow we have quarterly OPEX (Often it corresponds to market turning points).

The bigger picture scenario that I am working is considering that if the upper converging trend line is not breached price could be forming a large “bearish” wedge.

This idea at the moment would be coherent since the advance from the August low is corrective hence it is either the wave (A) of the up leg within the wedge or it will conclude the entire up leg if it reaches the upper trend line. (The pattern will be completed with one more multi-week down – up sequence

Short-Term EWP

I don’t know if the current advance will unfold a Zig Zag or a “melt-up” towards the weekly upper Bollinger band.

Since short-term technical indicators are extended I lean towards the option of a pending multi-day pullback.(Below I show you daily chart I posted yesterday afternoon on Stocktwits/Twitter with few thoughts)

It is a fact that from the August 28 low price has unfolded a corrective pattern, maybe a TZZ, but as it is always the case, corrective patterns have the tendency of morphing so most of the time I am “behind the curve”. In these cases I try to “find” a pattern that helps in establishing the position of price within the EWP.

In my opinion we have a Triangle (Concluded last Friday). Triangles are often the penultimate pattern; unfortunately despite the thrust, yesterday’s higher has mixed up the structure. So at the end of the day we still do not have a clear ending pattern in sight.

if bulls can simply consolidate here, it's actually bullish as I see ascending triangle here.

Long.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.

My position is in the September contract, which is expiring.
At the risk of outsmarting myself, I will exit in this afternoon's excitement with plans to roll into the December contract advantageously.
I may take on the December contract today or I may wait for post FOMC trade to settle down later in the week. I do plan to stay aligned with my signals.
There is a reasonable chance that the word "idiot" will appear in a future post.

Here's a round-up of some taper expectations from Wall Street's top economists:

http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-pre ... ing%20Bell

Taper today may be a non-event as EQ market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry with $TNX

double top?

This is what I thought of pBAR on QQQ yesterday (note the time image was taken). and this is what we got so far. Not bad

So you're going to long the December contract today in the 8:15 p.m. excitement

Mr. BachNut wrote:Long.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.

My position is in the September contract, which is expiring.
At the risk of outsmarting myself, I will exit in this afternoon's excitement with plans to roll into the December contract advantageously.
I may take on the December contract today or I may wait for post FOMC trade to settle down later in the week. I do plan to stay aligned with my signals.
There is a reasonable chance that the word "idiot" will appear in a future post.

Heck wrote:Taper today may be a non-event as EQ market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry with $TNX

What are you talking about?

The spike in $TNX is worry?

No, it's the oposite, we had spikes in yield before each major top or correction.

Actually, the rising yield will force Fed to tighten a lot today as the mortgage applications are dropping dead right now and they know very well that QE is causing the yield to rise.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-cont ... 112013.jpg

H2, don't think it's enough to justify a good rebound.

Yesterday's signal didn't work

revisit low as expected, now let's see if bulls could make a higher low.

Looking at TNX (and I've been watching it like a hawk) I see a broken rising wedge and a potential kiss goodbye.. I was long TLT at EOD Monday and holding. There is the potential to see higher highs ahead but with overhead resistance on SPX (which is forming it's own rising wedge) coupled with seasonality, debt ceiling talks, risks in middle east, and tapering... Also please note that Gold Bugs HUI price is resting on a long-term support trend line. Gold futures has the potential of forming a large inverse H/S as I've pointed out. We'll need to see some strength but there is still room for that to play out. Semis (SOX) is very near the top of a large multi-year falling trendline and SPX is of course near its own... if there is more up it has a lot of supply to deal with. Perhaps we will start to see normal market correlations and maybe we are in the ebb tide right now. The influence of the Fed may be fading...

jack black wrote:

Heck wrote:Taper today may be a non-event as EQ market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry with $TNX

What are you talking about?

The spike in $TNX is worry?

No, it's the oposite, we had spikes in yield before each major top or crrection.

Actually, the rising yield will force Fed to tighten a lot today as the mortgage applications are dropping dead right now and they know very well that QE is causing the yield to rise.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-cont ... 112013.jpg

I see most of the blogs are bearish. It would be interesting if the markets blasts off upward after the FOMC meeting.

Sophisticated traders usually bet against sentiment.. wouldn't it be even more interesting if the market move downward?

Vaamsy wrote:I see most of the blogs are bearish. It would be interesting if the markets blasts off upward after the FOMC meeting.

Vaamsy wrote:I see most of the blogs are bearish. It would be interesting if the markets blasts off upward after the FOMC meeting.

Is that right? I thought all bears were slotered?

not sure if higher low was formed, wait.