Cobra's Market View

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I'm neutral (meaning I'm clueless) because the 3 legs pullback so far overlap each other, so it's not a strong pullback, well, yet. However the 2 rebound tries got weaker and weaker while the 3rd leg down (now) is by far the strongest... So the conclusion might be the selling isn't over yet...

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/11 ... ay-update/

I'm verging on getting stopped out of my short as my signals are close to turning bullish. I'm eyeing a gold short as well. However, the market futures are down, gold popped and bitcoins are now at all time highs. This is all probably a headfake...but I'll not take action for the moment.

Midweek Hightower fun. glta.

15 minute inverted h/s?

SPX 5m.. gap below H&S blue neckline.. neckline retest?

as usual, buying dip like no tomorrow.

SPX 60m

morning hourly hollow red bar again.

exceeds the tinted area then bears are hopeless.

SPX 15m.. messy

SPX 5m.. the messy H&S's are broken.. but red flag retest.... if we accelerate down.. watch cyan channels

Looking at a megaphone pattern on SOX, not the best performer but pair that with SPX right-angle descending broadening pattern and odds go up. Since I am biased to expect a correction from these levels I am looking for topping patterns at these levels. Patterns suggest a top may be forming. Looking at Bulcowski's pattern analysis one has to question if these patterns that failed were formed at significant resistance levels or not. Like all things context is everything.

http://thepatternsite.com/rabfd.html (upward breakout performance for this pattern is the worst possible... adding confirmation to my bearish bias.)

P.S. Second week with bullish sentiment at extremes and with smart money record short... hmmm.

SPX 5m... another look.. still atm looks like a small bear flag..

Short. No change.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up.

As mentioned before, Friday's action whacked the odds of this working, but the setup remained valid and I have been hanging in.
Nothing has changed since then.
I am guessing tomorrow may be the decider on this.
Not only is it day before OPEX, so price will bias toward a settlement area, but also Yellin has her Senate confirmation hearing.
She has been pretty quiet for a long time, so tomorrow will affect expectations.
The default is that she will reinforce the QE forever theme, at which point the bull market can resume.
I have no idea what will actually happen though.

I guess it's going to be boring until Friday, check the time signal on the 15th

BachNut, I've got a good signal for Friday, none for tomorrow...

Mr. BachNut wrote:Short. No change.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up.

As mentioned before, Friday's action whacked the odds of this working, but the setup remained valid and I have been hanging in.
Nothing has changed since then.
I am guessing tomorrow may be the decider on this.
Not only is it day before OPEX, so price will bias toward a settlement area, but also Yellin has her Senate confirmation hearing.
She has been pretty quiet for a long time, so tomorrow will affect expectations.
The default is that she will reinforce the QE forever theme, at which point the bull market can resume.
I have no idea what will actually happen though.

interesting re Yellen confirmation...wonder if she needs to hint at positive underlying economic strength to get confirmed?
meaning that she may not talk up more/ longer QE since Congress may hold the vice-chair accountable for economic weakness.

still bearish intermediate-term, nyad , vix, falling momentum in Nysi, leans bearish but maybe not today or tomorrow or friday