Cobra's Market View

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First of all, Happy Holiday everyone!

Could be Ascending Triangle in the forming so the bias is up.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12 ... ay-update/

Well we didnt get a down day yesterday, as seasonals seem to indicate(silly season!), but we didnt go up much either... Best wishes all!

Playing the short side these days is Russian roulette - the odds are heavily in favor of the bulls. P&F charts show breakouts as from December 20th. Any P&F aficionado (like myself) will tell you that it's suicidal to fight these signals. Scalping yes - but don't fight the P&F signal (both "Traditional" and "ATR" are on strong buy).

Something else: my computer was forced to drink some beer the other day . Bad news - it killed him/her . I'm at home and cannot draw any charts with my iPad, cannot show the two SPX P&Fs which are really bullish.

Last but not least: as from Friday we'll be away on holiday until January 7th.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all, uempel

PS: You don't have to be a subscriber to check out P&Fs of the indices at stockcharts. Just go to "free charts"...

Uemple, i dont disagree with your statement, just worried about the longer term 1st quarter of 2014.. a view shared by some people who are a lot smarter than i am!... Now maybe i will be right and maybe i'll be wrong, but fwiw, my nervousness is shared by some very savvy players in the market...for instance , from J. Hirsch publisher of the stocktraders almanac:" Technical: Toppy. Following early December weakness, DJIA and S&P 500 surged back to fractional new all-time highs. NASDAQ also reached a new post-bubble high. MACD indicators have either just turned positive or are on the verge of doing so. Stochastic and relative strength indicators are neither overbought nor oversold. In the short-term, the path of least resistance remains higher, but the pace of gains has slowed. Over the longer term, the market may be in the process of forming a top." George Lindsay, noted technical analyst, has warned about his 3 peaks and a domed house formation currently under construction with Jan 9 or so as a target for completion. Harmonics analysts have a bearish formation possible from here to around 1870.The CBOE skew index , a measure of risk used by options players, just hit a 52 week high.When SKEW increases, it means tail risk on SPX has increased. Tail risk usually increases when traders have a bad feeling of something coming up ahead, like a crash or a black swan event.

And from a trader in the pits of the big contract (he trades hundred lots..)And from a noted floor trader commenting on the nazdaqs parabolic rise, Sam E." 300 handles outside of standard deviation on nq / yep this is lala land and i cant even explain what these bars are gonna look like when she rolls over / nq late 07 the high we were 1.0687% ouside of standard deviation. we got there today / using nov 07 / we are due 500-700 down / 300 just to slip back inside rising deviation / only once did a monthly candle open and close above all deviations. ever. oct nov 2007 / the fund managers walked away for a year in nov 2007 nq practically became bidless. " Further noting that " if yu shorted the santa rally high dec 26, YOU DID NOT HAVE TO COVER UNTIL MAR 6 2009."

koolblue wrote:Uemple, i dont disagree with your statement, just worried about the longer term 1st quarter of 2014.. a view shared by some people who are a lot smarter than i am!... Now maybe i will be right and maybe i'll be wrong, but fwiw, my nervousness is shared by some very savvy players in the market...for instance , from J. Hirsch publisher of the stocktraders almanac:" Technical: Toppy. Following early December weakness, DJIA and S&P 500 surged back to fractional new all-time highs. NASDAQ also reached a new post-bubble high. MACD indicators have either just turned positive or are on the verge of doing so. Stochastic and relative strength indicators are neither overbought nor oversold. In the short-term, the path of least resistance remains higher, but the pace of gains has slowed. Over the longer term, the market may be in the process of forming a top." George Lindsay, noted technical analyst, has warned about his 3 peaks and a domed house formation currently under construction with Jan 9 or so as a target for completion. Harmonics analysts have a bearish formation possible from here to around 1870.The CBOE skew index , a measure of risk used by options players, just hit a 52 week high.When SKEW increases, it means tail risk on SPX has increased. Tail risk usually increases when traders have a bad feeling of something coming up ahead, like a crash or a black swan event.

I'm just saying that P&Fs show a breakout and that's always a strong buy. I don't know the statistical relevance of these signals but it must be in the 70/90% range - Russian Roulette with a six-shooter is 83.33% I've been in this business for many years and I only recall few instances when P&F signals were traps. Should SPX break back below 1809 (on a closing basis) anytime soon we know it was a fake...

Bye guys, I'm off until the 26th

Thx for your reply, Uemple, as i said i dont dissagree. my own personal opinion is that we go quite a bit higher in Jan before the bottom begins to fall out. So if that occurs ,were both right . My concern is that newbies (ive been trading since 1986) will be lulled into false security if that happens and get crushed.. after all, we havent had a 10% correction for well over a year, and i fear one may be coming in early 2014.. We are over due,imho!

have a great holiday, and i look forward to your cycle work next year!

this bull might have small legs.

volume surge, biggest bar, so may see pullback here which likely would be bought.

" if you shorted the santa rally high Dec 26, 2007, YOU DID NOT HAVE TO COVER UNTIL MAR 6 2009." The last part is true, the first is not. 2007 was nearly unique in NOT having a santa rally. The S&P 500 fell 1.9% from Dec 27 2007 to Jan 3 2008.

uempel wrote:Playing the short side these days is Russian roulette - the odds are heavily in favor of the bulls. P&F charts show breakouts as from December 20th. Any P&F aficionado (like myself) will tell you that it's suicidal to fight these signals. Scalping yes - but don't fight the P&F signal (both of "Traditional" and on "ATR" are on strong buy).

Something else: my computer was forced to drink some beer the other day . Bad news - it killed him . I'm at home and cannot draw any charts with my iPad, so I cannot show the two SPX P&Fs which are really bullish.

Last but not least: as from Friday we'll be away on holiday until January 7th.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all, uempel

PS: You don't have to be a subscriber to check out P&Fs of the indices at stockcharts. Just go to "free charts"...

Here's the link to the SPX PnF 1960 target:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?spx

Everyone have a great Christmas..Just renember whose birthday we are celebrating.

[quote="kongen"]" if you shorted the santa rally high Dec 26, 2007, YOU DID NOT HAVE TO COVER UNTIL MAR 6 2009." The last part is true, the first is not. 2007 was nearly unique in NOT having a santa rally. The S&P 500 fell 1.9% from Dec 27 2007 to Jan 3 2008.[/quote
" When Santa fails to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall" Or something like that.

I have dn P Bars both yesterday and today so I guess we Waite until thur morning to see what happens.

KENA wrote:I have dn P Bars both yesterday and today so I guess we Waite until thur morning to see what happens.

Miyagi showed a p-bar yesterday: target was SPY 183.445, SPY now 182.95ish