Cobra's Market View

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Blue line is the resistance which has been tested several times, so probably will break if tested again this time.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/01 ... ay-update/

GM ALL,
DAX on fire again today (+1.5%). Another MM target reached (about 9675). Next one is 10,000 target ?
Honestly I smell a rat somewhere (bull trap). Well, Beige Book tonite, we'll see...

glta.

SPX 60m... possible bull flag break out.. or expanding pink triangle for the bears ... mind the open gaps above and below.

.
I know you guys are probably tired of hearing about POMO, and I couldn't believe it myself for the longest, but there seems to be direct coorelation to POMO.

It looks like they started using Wed's money early in the market. If so, we'll probably be up a little more, and then will hold near even until Monday.

Here's the schedule:

Wed, Jan 15, 2014 Thu, Jan 16, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 10/31/2018 - 09/30/2019 $4.00 - $5.00 billion
Thu, Jan 16, 2014 Fri, Jan 17, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 11/15/2043 $1.00 - $1.50 billion
Fri, Jan 17, 2014 Tue, Jan 21, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2021 - 11/15/2023 $2.25 - $3.00 billion
Tue, Jan 21, 2014 Wed, Jan 22, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 11/15/2043 $1.00 - $1.50 billion

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INDEX 5m.. new highs.. on NDX pressing on the RUT.. VIX, INDU lagging atm

PPI came in green this morn
Also:
“Wells Fargo is now the most profitable bank in the U.S., beating out the previous title-holder J.P. Morgan. Morgan's annual profits dropped 16% from the year prior to $17.9 billion, dragged down by massive legal fees. Wells, on the other hand, earned $21.9 billion despite slipping in its mortgage unit.”

flumanchu wrote:.
I know you guys are probably tired of hearing about POMO, and I couldn't believe it myself for the longest, but there seems to be direct coorelation to POMO.

It looks like they started using Wed's money early in the market. If so, we'll probably be up a little more, and then will hold near even until Monday

.

The Fed will keep interest tamped, by QE hook or other crook. It can't service the debt now as is. They will ride the Ponzi hard until some derivative default crash puts the horse up wet to die. Then they will deny guilt. A poison to the animal spirits of our youth, they would destroy what they can not own/control.

GOLD bulls:
Ned Davis, Monday:
• "For contrarians, the [gold] outlook appears brighter," write the Ned Davis commodity team of John LaForge and Warren Pies, acknowledging the curiosity of the metal's slump despite central banks printing away and unprecedented physical demand from China.
• The metal is oversold on multiple levels they say, and has good long-term support in the mid-1,100s range. If gold rallies, they continue, then so will the miners.
• Timing is a tough issue, but their best guess is sometime around the end of this quarter, triggered by a mid-year stock market correction. Look for the metal and miners to move first, and the equity downdraft to follow.


Jeff Gundlach (he’s the “famous” bond guru), yesterday:
• "Do not sell your gold," says Jeff Gundlach, suggesting the yellow metal could hit $1,350 this year. "If you want to speculate, I would be on the long side of the miners." He's long some of them and making some money lately, but overall losing cash on the trade.
• Gundlach scratches his head over the giddiness with which many analysts greet declines in the gold. It's just another asset, after all.”

VIX 15m

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I heard discussions where so many people are worried about inflation as a result of POMO. However, one analyst (can't remember who he was - but he was British) was saying that, how he saw it, the Fed could pretty easily reduce their balance sheet. Though the Fed is classified as a Private Bank, they are really a part of the Govt. So, with the Fed buying Treasury's Bonds, one part of Govt owes the other part. Kind of like your Dad oweing your Mom money. His view was, eventually, there will be an announcement that interest will not be paid on these particular bonds at some point, then they'll just retire the debt. Poof! It's gone with a few keystrokes.

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SPX 60m.. close-up almost filled the upper gap..

new high COMPQ
new high RUT

Costs to mine are a tough row to hoe now.

this kind of consolidation generally favors bulls.

SPX 60m gap filled.

Neutral. Holding longs and shorts.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up.

Stopped out of some shorts yesterday. Campaign is net positive so far, but could be better!
I was inclined to long, but my signals remained mixed after the close yesterday.
New highs today should firm them up. The soonest my summation signal could turn though would be Friday. (Such is the pace of a turtle...)
I'll continue to juggle positions but with the view that the uptrend has re-engaged.

There is a history of the market testing new Fed chairmen at the start of their tenure.
Typically, it is in the form of a crisis that tanks the market and is managed by easing policy.
With new all time highs in the NASDAQ/R2K (S&P on deck), I continue to wonder if the test for Yellen may be the exact opposite.
We'll find out soon enough.