Cobra's Market View

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This round push up overlaps a lot so probably a pullback is due soon. As always, I give bulls more credit so assume there's one more push up to form 3 Push Up pattern first before the pullback.

the week's stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ock-picks/

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

Vote for Cobra. glta

this bear may have legs.

Check the centre line of the black channel:

Net short. Working positions.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up.

My signals are in conflict. ADX is down, and VIX is elevated. This is not a trending market.
My setups are designed to own trends.
Last week as things got progressively choppy, I started managing my exposure on trades.
The good news is that I repositioned shorts Thursday into Friday and caught a nice move.
The bad news is that the F-ing algos top ticked the R2K at one of my stops Friday and took out a layer for a loss.
I was away from my desk and thus was not able to reload after an obvious pick-off.
As the exit was per the protocol, the execution was fine though. Trade was just a fail.

A trend could clarify any day (I can argue either way). So, I would like to stay in my setups.
However, I am now oriented to work my positions until my signals get clearer rather than get chewed up.
So, I may weight the long side in this mornings dip (tight stop). If we go back to the highs at some point, I may weight short (maybe even re-load that R2K layer).
Time to be nimble I think. Not falling in love with my positions. Will take no more risk than was quantified in original setups.

Undervalued opening long Index puts 4.6 times calls = market down
http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Biotech finally taking a breather.

I use the 5ema/8ema cross to trade silver, but it's useful on SPY too. fwiw

Update: that lower grid line at approx 1850 should provide a bounce

Whoops, just lost the 5 day minor up trend on SPX with -1000 tick, looking at support at 1850, expect next 60min up cycle on stochastic might be it for this move up from 2/5. This view aided by evolving positive price reversal on 60 min RSI and bear set-up on 60 min stochastic, pointing to a sell on next 60 min cycle high. These set-ups may fail if we fall below 1850 before 60 min stochastic turns up, but a move above 1884 is seeming less likely now that minor up trend broken.

To clarify, if the set-up mentioned fails, by price moving to below 1850 on this current move, then the next 60min swing up would still be a sell, but most likely at a lower high, than the double top or marginally higher high inferred by the set-up (by my way of looking at things, not a recommendation)

Update:

Yes and one more thing to watch is the 200 EMA at 1852. Breaks thru that by a few points and then maybe goes dn to test the low. Lets see.

Gold alert.

Gold is DOWN another $22. This is going a LONG way to installing the second shoulder on the massive inverse head and shoulders pattern on gold.

It needed to drop big immediately....and we are getting it.

We get this second shoulder carved out, and gold will explode higher in 2014.

Weak tech.

DellGriffith wrote:Gold alert.

Gold is DOWN another $22. This is going a LONG way to installing the second shoulder on the massive inverse head and shoulders pattern on gold.

It needed to drop big immediately....and we are getting it.

We get this second shoulder carved out, and gold will explode higher in 2014.

Also, SEASONALLY -------------------- > Now is the time to get long gold and HUI ------> http://www.zealllc.com/2011/goldseas6.htm
(Last week of March).