Cobra's Market View

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Rebound here maybe, but NORMALLY this pullback shall have 2nd leg at least.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

The week's stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ock-picks/

Vote Cobra. glta

SPX 5m, 60m mind the gaps just above, and just below

PBar 185.52 checked off

VIX 15m.. popped above 20d, 200d.. pressing 50d @ 15.21

AAPL Daily.. careful.. slipping under 50d... trend line, bear flag.. weekly.. very precarious

SPX 5m.. lower gap was filled.. mind morning higher gap.. and next lower gap.. 1840-1842ish

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

morning hourly hollow red.

Everything is orchestrated - with each party playing their part. Without more funds, the markets are going down. The Fed needs the ECB to act, but only at the appropriate time. At this point, there's not enough US QE to keep the markets up. If the ECB institues their own QE buying US bonds, this will offset the Fed's QE and supply the Primary Dealers with the cash they need to support the markets.

Market Pulse Archives

April 7, 2014, 7:51 a.m. EDT

ECB's Mersch says QE being considered if needed:
By Carla Mozee LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank is sketching out plans for asset purchases if they are warranted, but an immediate program launch doesn't appear likely, Yves Mersch, a member of the bank's executive board, reportedly said Monday. The risks of inflation and deflation "are more or less level in EMU area which means that we do not see an imminent risk of deflation. However, we are ready to prepare for such a situation," Mersch, who appeared at a conference in London, was quoted as saying by Reuters. Late last week, a German newspaper reported the ECB was modeling 1 trillion euros ($1.37 trillion) of quantitative easing. That report came a day after ECB President Mario Draghi said bond purchases were discussed at the bank's most recent meeting, though he stopped short of announcing any firm action.

POMO - the only thing keeping the markets up.

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Undervalued opening long Index puts 2.5 times calls = More Market Down

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Partial Long. Was short.

My summation signal remains up for the SPX and neutral for the R2K.
My composite trend signal remains up by a hair. It could turn neutral or perhaps even down today.

On Friday, I sold the NFP pop following Cobra's NFP open higher close lower model.
That it worked as well as it did was a complete surprise. I closed it out this morning.
Also on Friday, I started assembling long once price got back to the middle of the prior trading range and have added lower this morning.
Basically, I am honoring my up signals above at good prices. Could be a dumb idea.
If Friday was the initiation of a down trend, these longs are likely to fail. I may bail out on a bounce if my signals deteriorate further today.
Otherwise, stops will be the defense.

The bulls have a problem. We spent most of March in a trading range, and when they went to squeeze the accumulated short buy stops on Friday, it failed big.
Now there is a probably a pile of accumulated sell stops below the bottom of the March trading range. This also happens to be the current location of the 50 day MA.
The stage is set for a battle there that the bulls could lose.

I am long at the moment having honored some signals, but I think the reality is that we are still negotiating the settlement of the March trading range.
So, my intention is to try and stay nimble. My signals held up better than expected Friday, but I'll be watching closely how they evolve day by day this week.
I could bail on these longs at any time.

Out last Friday...looking to go long again.
BULLS HAVE FAITH

You think there are some paybacks going with Bankers?

QQQ, SPY dailies.. possible minor support in this area.

Just to give you some perspective, from JPM, markets are now at peak valuation as in 2007.

2nd test of day low, key time, wait to see if bulls could make double bottom here, AS USUAL.