Cobra's Market View

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Fulfilled 100% Measured Move then rebound so likely the rebound would fail eventually. That said the rebound for now looks strong, so still has some rooms to go.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

weekly stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ock-picks/

Vote Cobra. glta

SPX 15m.. looks like we will fill the Friday interday gap around 1819ish .. mind blue channel?.. 5m to follow

SPX 5m... mind the expanding triangle.. upper cyan.. and red channel

Volume.

.

POMO Projection is 1822 for today,
---------------------->1809 by Thur (end of week),
------------------>and 1791 on Monday (4/21).

.

VIX 60m possible bounce off of support... need to see how the hourly candle closes

SPX 5m .. mind the morning gap

biggest red bar,so might be rebound here. then we'll see.

SPX 15m.. bulls hoping for an invs H&S.. fill gap and go?.. 60m.. chart even with the 15m invs .. could set up even more bearish

morning hourly black bar.

Wow - 4th gap up to start Opex week in the last 5 months (only January did not).
-Dec gap closed on the Wednesday spike down
-February closed on the same day
-March - closed on April 8th!!!

Interestingly, the Thursday / Friday candles in March and April look remarkably similar.

I posted my full opex preview in the Market Outlook earlier.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... bb-bottom/

-D

Short. No change. Profit stop lowered.

My summation signal is neutral. A break of the lows could turn it down for the S&P. The R2K model looks like it is trying to set a cycle bottom.
My composite trend signal is down.

The idea is to let profits run with the trend. The trouble is it is OPEX week after some heavy one way trade.
It seems probable that there will be a counter trend move, and it may be severe given that put calls were going bonkers last week.
It is a historically bullish OPEX week.
It is a short week. So, the guess work is which day gets the move, how big is it and from where does it start. (It may have started overnight.)
If my stop gets taken out, instead of running, my profit will just crumple. I may work some longs at some point if I can read the tape clearly.
My preference, as usual, is to do nothing.

That said, occasionally OPEX weeks surprise by pressing the trend and running over countermove players.
Improbable but possible as there are some exogenous events unfolding.

Heck, if your ISEE reads are suggesting anything, your thoughts would be welcome. Thanks.

2nd test of day low, this is where the dip buyer coming in. wait to see if they do come today.