Cobra's Market View

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Testing resistance (blue line), I'm neutral. A little bigger pullback here would favor bears because the rebound mostly overlaps. Consolidation here would favor bulls because consolidation usually means continuation.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

I'm still bearish given the early breach of the lower bb on daily SPY. That should yield a lower low.

Hightower daily tout; Yen range from Market News Intl Fixed Income; USD/YEN this a.m., now 101.83. Vote Cobra. glta

Here is SLM's April 14, 2014: The big picture https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/slm-s-spotlight

SPX 15m

SPX 60m.. retesting pink neckline, pressing overhead supply

mind the inter day gaps... SPX 5m

This is for some of the posters here:
People, look at the price and ignore your charts and predictions. If the price of the market is contrary to your predictions, the your model is wrong.

That's OK. No model is right all the time. But don't ignore the reality to try and make the model right. You just lose money and sound dumb.

Morning jump pushed the SPY to intersection of yellow and purple line,a point identified after the market close yesterday
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1270&start=140#p160167
Now do you understand the rules?
If you have any idea what last down pointing green pBAR means, you can make lots of money .

SPY daily.. tagged 50d SMA, mid channel, resistance, SPX still a few points short...

Dialies... RUT, NDX, lag

So, are we starting wave three down? Any wave counters around?

vol surge, biggest red bar, so might see rebound here first, then we'll see.

Short. Lowered profit stop.
Stacked some additional short yesterday afternoon for a day trade catching the heart of the late day decline before the last half hour spike.

My summation signal is neutral.
My composite trend signal is down.

I am trying to navigate a historically bullish OPEX week while holding a short per my trend signal.
While my inclination is to do nothing and let profit run, OPEX specific dynamics could stop me out prematurely even if my trend model is working.
So, I am open to work day to day opportunities if I see them in the tape to build a cushion or hedge as the case may be.
The risk is that I get sucked in to overtrading and leakage.
There is also the possibility that the low is in and the trend is about to reverse (I don't think so).
My trend model is solid down now. So, I'll stick with it and review after the close today.

On the bull side, the recent move in TRIN from high to low (chart) is something that often (not always) precedes either brief bounces or even changes in trend.
We may have seen it play out in this morning's pop, but I'll be watching for follow through.

SPX 5m.. mind the morning gap..

Yen down, dollar/yen and spy up, and vice versa. Good correlation. Goes as expected.

Yesterday I thought we would see a lower low by today...viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1270&start=120#p160135

so far today's rally has been pretty much eliminated...now price is headed down...so we will see if we get a lower low today...