Cobra's Market View

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Might be a Rising Wedge which from my experiences is not necessarily a bearish pattern.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

Probably not the perfect entry but it's time to go long volatility. The VIX is under 12 and VXV is compressed. We have a p-bar on UVXY 32% higher.

What we might expect from here.... http://tmblr.co/Zyun3q1OqKd4f

For Wealth Builders Only...

SPX 60m.. nearing all time highs... pennies away

INDEX dailies

That wasn't a real print but a communication from the "flash boys"

fehro wrote:VIX spiking HUGE!

VIX 15m .. sell the news with all the positive econo news?

Now is the time to own crude oil.

No position.

My summation signal is up but hyper-extended (i.e. longs warrant trailing stops).
My composite trend signal is up.

Last night, I reviewed why I don't have a pony in this race even though my models are both up.
Either the models flopped (setups will fail a certain % of the time) or I goofed.
It turns out that I goofed. Part of the issue was me being out last Friday and part was a miss on my execution.
So, I have to score this an error.

SPY daily

No opex turn - always a disappointment for me when there are no turns ... especially opex ones ....

Just a few notes

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

-D

...

Vote Cobra. gltar. Giddis said he expects Ms. Yellen "will stay consistent to her message of remaining accommodative to the market with a keen eye on the labor markets.

Either the models flopped (setups will fail a certain % of the time) or I goofed. It turns out that I goofed. Part of the issue was me being out last Friday and part was a miss on my execution. So, I have to score this an error. [/quote]

again newbies mostly--key idea is when stuff doesn't work why not. as example today i was long into the first move up and got thrown off by the bounce in vol. i was late leaving. so loss of 9%ish. then i got long again a bit late--and was out too soon for 5%ish minor gain.

i don't have any model just the price action. so my sense of my mistakes is this--i am off a bit just a bit "slow". my working sense near open was "not yet" (on a decline) that is what i mean by "sense". so that was "get long". on the reversal (if it was flash) and a gaping maw bid ask on options my sense was "hold it dude this is not it either". because i was off i bailed it. on the 2 entry the feel was "gotta try that first high". this turned out to be right. but i left slightly early. (these expressions of senses are not exact--but are as close as i can write and convey any meaning)

this approach may seem messy to someone who trades rules--but the feel/sense etc was correct each part of the way. my divergence from trading that feel was the problem. that in turn is just being a bit off or "tired". the correct move is likely to just take a nap for 15min and reset. so my concern tends to center around 2 issues. one is the "feel" right. that just comes from how price is acting--a few volume spikes and the bid/ask spread on various options. second assuming i am seeing what is actually going on--then how am i reacting to it. a key idea is that 85% of the time any problem winds up being me not "listening to what i see" so not just acting blindly on the sense of it. 10% of the time i am off by a mile and am "sensing" the wrong thing. 5% of the time i am not very sure either way. these % are the results of 1000s of trades tracked in excel and a journal over many years.

the tout here (newbies) is not the trading style which is not important. it's the idea that Mr. Bachnut did a valuable thing considering his mistakes. And you should too.

the key idea with mistakes is to get over the emotional tangle--and man it's usually there one way or another. if you have it you are concerned about losing it--and if you don't have it--it seems like you will never get it. if you are going to succumb to this try to fall in the direction of hemmingways idea of "if you are good enough it's all your fault". that is a mistake--but it's a better one than blaming the market or cobra or your dog etc.

so once the emotion is at least somewhat understood--you want to know what happened. and keeping records of this will act like a map. you will come to understand what weakens you--and where you are strong. i don't just mean the market action (i cannot really find much of an edge here--if it's slow and i get it great. if it's fast and i get it great.) situations are all sorts of things aside from the charts--are you on it mentally? how is your blood sugar? what else is going on in your life that is impacting trading? (huge stuff rarely noted) being on it mentally is when stuff comes together and is not just a pattern. the clue here is the size of your trade--1% of capital trades all the time show little--sometimes being in 30% shows a lot. on records it's key to do it in real time--your memory of the event is totally different and you will drop information if you do everything later. so just a sentence here or there or a screen shot will often be far more useful than trying belated forensics.

it's too complex here to note every factor--but the idea is Mr Bachnut checking why things didn't work optimally is the point. if you are new at this--my advice is to gather more information than you need both in math and in text. then as you get more experienced stream line it but don't stop doing it. Try to relax and not get lost in emotion--but let the results act like a map. We tend to make mistakes from our habits and blind spots--by definition we often don't see these even when we are "looking right at them". But records will send you in the right direction--without you knowing exactly why--if you simply let them. in this way mistakes are often far more valuable than killer trades. Bonus idea--often when you think you get it--you don't and often when you think you don't get it you do. our moment to moment understanding of what we are doing is "uneven" to say the least--to me it doesn't exactly exist except as being in the flow of action or out of it--and that is not me it's the interface between me and "it".

good luck to all and now that nap

for the contrarian point of view.. in the range... http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sen ... ts?adv=yes

/ES 1988 is key number to watch.