12/17/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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I'm neutral. I see channel, the lower boundary has just been tested, so maybe due to test upper boundary somewhere?

[cletus]

Today/tomorrow is a common seasonal starting point for the santa rally in that seasonality becomes quite positive. The Nasdaq 100 looks set for another dive lower at the open, but a red VXN bar today followed by another tomorrow would confirm the low. That said, a red VXN bar is first required, and there's no guarantee that will happen today. There have been only two higher closes on VXN in the past 2.5 years.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here:
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[grandeG]

Most undoubtedly already know December is an exceptional month for the Russell 2000, but just as a reminder.....

Tom Bowley points out the December stats since 1987:

As a student of stock market history, I'm often astonished by historical facts about market performance. December is generally a very solid month for equities and no index benefits more from this seasonal bullishness than the Russell 2000. Since 1987, the Russell 2000 has risen 24 of 27 years during the month of December, sporting a robust 42.45% annualized return. It is BY FAR the best month of the year for small caps with the second best month - April - lagging way behind with an annualized return of 19.42%.

Of the 3 negative Decembers on the Russell 2000, there was a 0.23% loss in 2007, a 0.60% loss in 2005 and a 5.72% loss in 2002. So really the 2002 year was the only year since 1987 where small caps have performed very poorly. That's 1 bad year out of 27. Small caps gained ground in December every year from 1987 through 2001. Being overly bearish small caps during December has proven to be a very poor trading strategy. So does this mean we should be ALL IN on the long side? Of course not. First of all, history is just that - history. It provides us no guarantees about future performance. But even beyond that limitation, one third of December actually is quite bearish for small caps. This may be the most amazing historical statistic of all.

For purposes of historical market performance, December can be broken down into three periods as follows:

1st through 6th
7th through 15th
16th through 31st

The performance between these these periods is staggering. Take a look at the annualized returns by period:

1st through 6th: +25.81% (up 20 times, down 7 times)
7th through 15th: -22.77% (up 5 times, down 22 times)
16th through 31st: +78.84% (up 24 times, down 3 times)

[fehro]

/es 4hr.. yellow H&S target hit.. doubtful.. couple pink H&S.. but there… should things really fall apart.. mind mid channel, pink yellow.. to the upside

[FlowerGirl]

FG point of view post will appear ~1:30 EST
Untill then stay cool...

[Daniel]

QQQ first major to gap fill.

May break 100 to downside as I type.

[fehro]

SPX resistance in this level.. 60m… but some pos div on the MacD.. 5m.. expanding wedge..

[fehro]

SPX 3m

[tsf]

Ok. Cool. Thanks

FG point of view post will appear ~1:30 EST
Untill then stay cool...

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:07 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX .. looking like maybe lower lows.. one more time?.. VIX holding up

[fehro]

INDEX dailies… TRANsports under pressure..

[Heck]

104% ALL opening long overvalued calls/puts,
149% EQUITY opening long overvalued calls/puts
and
95% INDEX opening long undervalued calls/puts
suggest LOWER prices:

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[fehro]

AAPL should have support here.. but it's not looking good...

[Al_Dente]

TASR
“Mayor ... announced a plan Tuesday to equip 7,000 Los Angeles police officers with on-body cameras by next summer, making LA's police department the nation's largest law enforcement agency to move forward with such an ambitious expansion ….”
“...estimated the cameras would cost roughly $10 million for the first two to three years and would include technology and software from Arizona-based Taser International Inc.”

[Daniel]

15min timeframe, XLE has not been above its (declining) 200ema for over two weeks. So far today, it still isn't-- price rejected at that exact level this morning.

[fehro]

SPX … VIX pressing yesterday's highs..

[Daniel]

Transports are not liking the poor results from Fedex this AM.

[cletus]

Anyone who missed out on DWTI's rise can certainly profit from its fall. We have a 77% loss in that instrument predicted when it hits the p-bar at 26 or so.