Cobra's Market View

Now we know institutions do accumulate while the market was pulling back (remember the last 2 weeks when the market was pulling back, the chart shows more accumulation than distribution?). The chart below is from stocktiming, it does tell us the truth.

Summary of the week's stock picks.
Good week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1630&p=188925#p188925

this week:

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1637&p=188928#p188928

AAPL:
1) Top panel: The boring default MACD, does a nice signaling job for medium-term folks (keyed to the solid red/green vertical lines).
It issued five signals in seven months; actually, the current buy signal is still pending.

2) Third panel up from the bottom: Bolinger %B does a nice job of finding interim bottoms (keyed to the dashed-green-vertical lines).

3) Second panel up from the bottom: “AAPL relative to SPY.”
When AAPL outperforms SPY it gets a flood of money, conversely, when AAPL starts underperforming SPY, folks go elsewhere. Currently it is pretty flat.

4) Bottom panel: Given that AAPL now comprises 3.9% of SPY and 14.4% of QQQ and 4.7% of the dow, you may be interested in that 7-month
percentage-performance comparison.

Consecutive trading days without hitting / approaching upper bb
ALL of SPY history

33 days from Oct - Dec 2012
33 days from Apr - June 2010
34 days from May - June 2006
35 days from Aug - Oct 2002 (dot com bust)
36 days from July - Aug 2011 (end of QE2 and before Operation Twist)
36 days from Feb - Apr 2015 (end of QE3 & worry over rate hikes)
37 days from Oct - dec 2007 (recession officially began in dec 2007)
39 days from May - June 2011 (end of QE2)
39 days from Sept - Oct 2000 (dot com bust)
39 days from Jan - Mar 2003 (dot com bust)
40 days from Dec 2014 - Feb 2015 (end of QE3)(longest streak in past 7 years)
42 days from Aug - Oct 1999 (a series of fed rate hikes to slow economy)
42 days from Aug - Oct 2001 (dot com bust)
43 days from July - Sept 1998 (asian flu)(russian economic crisis)

-- anything 45+ days happened during an economic bust --

45 days from Feb - Apr 2001 (dot com bust)
46 days from Mar - May 2002 (dot com bust)
48 days from Jan - Mar 2000 (dot com bust)
48 days from May - July 2008 (credit bubble bust)
49 days from Dec 2007- Feb 2008 (credit bubble bust)
60 days from May - Aug 2002 (dot com bust)
82 days from Sept - Dec 2008 (credit bubble bust)



We came very very close to the upper bb on friday, and I will call that a hit.

At 36 days, the streak that just ended is tied for 16th all-time. Both streaks for 2015 are bolded in the list.

By virtue of ending the streak, we are now free to see a major correction occur at any time. With no active QE currently at work, it is surely possible.

Friday XIV completed a “bearish 3 gaps up” candle pattern.
So the candle rules are: stay long until this pattern is confirmed, which would be if/when price crosses below the midpoint of Friday’s candle (about $39.17, see the green line/arrow). [candlesticker.com]

when SPY was down near the lower bb, stock market internet forums were fretting about a large drop. now that SPY is near the upper bb, im reading proclamations of a big rally due. as usual, posters are selling low and buying high.

INDEX daily/weeklies candles

Industry weekly %

T2

Yields

SPX weekly

Weekly SPX

Mon – Apr 13 - quiet
Tue - Apr 14 - 08:30 - Retail Sales
Tue - Apr 14 - 08:30 - Producer Price Index (PPI)
Tuesday Earnings reports: CCX, INTC, JNJ, JPM, WFC and others

Wed - Apr 15 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Apr 15 - 08:30 - Empire State Manufacturing
Wed - Apr 15 - 09:15 - Industrial Production
Wed - Apr 15 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Wed - Apr 15 - 10:30 - Oil Inventories
Wed - Apr 15 - 14:00 - Fed's Beige Book
Wednesday Earnings reports: BAC, NFLX, DAL, USB and others

Thu - Apr 16 - 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
Thu - Apr 16 - 08:30 - Housing Starts & Building Permits
Thu - Apr 16 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Thu - Apr 16 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Thursday Earnings reports: AXP, C, UNH and others

Fri – Apr 17 – 10:00 - U Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday Earnings reports: GE, HON and others
[GE popped Friday on the announcement of plans to exit the banking business and refocus on industrial operations, buyback $50 billion of their own shares (already board approved), and bite the tax bullet and repatriate $36 billion in foreign cash – WSJ.
Analysts are now scrambling to revise their earnings projections so they don’t get caught with their dicks out.

Based on the feed back, I added "How to use info" session in the weekend report, hopefully can ease the confusion: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/04 ... -reversal/

ES closed the week at the top fork (2095.75). If it breaks through the next resistance is above at 2102.75

I have a sell signal on $USDCAD but I am waiting until it reaches the top of the triangle to trade.

What to look for in a week to come?

Bears: I'll look at a reversal, see red dots/arrows
Bulls: I'll look at green dots, respect the reversal line (blue line) if it comes.

AAPL? still in the woods.