Cobra's Market View

The Week Ahead

Expect a continuing decline in equities (and commodities) simply because the Dollar should do extremely well. Not that the economy is doing well, of course, but because the Euro is being dumped. Take a look:

DX
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dx_14.html
Dollar futures have completed the back test of a possible neckline in an IH&S pattern; the target is 78.818.

EURUSD
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/eurusd_14.html
The Euro, meanwhile, has completed the back test of a possible H&S neckline; the target is 1.33.

ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/es_14.html
The strengthening dollar is likely to cause equities to continue their decline. In the case of ES, I expect prices to drop to 1318 with an intermediate bounce around 1327 to complete the right shoulder of a H&S pattern. If confirmed, that pattern targets 1300.

Have a nice weekend!

wow, so quiet here. where's everyone?

Too many areas of indecision without a real retracement. I am looking for a change in trend now. Bears should wade in now.
StochRSI now has two lower lows.

Okay...14 charts. From AUDJPY to VIX...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/
Whatever your interest, there should be a chart here.

Last leg up 50% fib retracements has been proven to be unbreakable, looks like the bears will go for the fourth try. few keys observation I can see on this side ways action most are negative (bearish) like down day volume is higher than up day volume, we are now into second red week with negative devergence, daily indicators/oscillators most are pointing down, intermediate term we are trading under 5dma and at the close of Friday looks like intraday bear flag was breached and no positive divergence can be seen. so, any move higher from here will be sold or a gap below 50% retracement will be very bearish also.

DBV which many observe as a cary trade indication is also turning bearish, broke down 20dma, retested, and continues it's journey lower. If moving below 24 the world fed need to regrease their printing press, last time the Japanese's intervention has been sucess for almost a whole month.

What about the US paper? lets look at UUP shorterm is very bullish, first time it could manage to move above BB20,1 (green line) 21.55 is key support going forward.

FAS/FAZers and TNA/TZAers
intraday support and resistance here. wish everyone making a killing this coming week.

Don't forget the debt ceiling, raising it could weaken the dollar further and the cary trade could easily move market up further. watch SPY 133.35 break down or 135.54 break up. a simple key levels to profit easily this coming weak.